Nadal's Year and Future Riding on U.S. Open

No one will deny that Rafael Nadal has had a difficult year thus far.
He won the Australian Open to begin the season, continuing a magical run through the 2008 season, but that seems like a decade ago now. Beyond the Australian Open and leading up to the French, Nadal was simply being "Nadal." He won five titles in ten tries,  making people wonder if Roger Federer was ever going to get a beat back on the Spaniard.

Things changed drastically, however, one sunny afternoon in Madrid, when Federer drilled Nadal in the final 6-4, 6-3. The round before, Nadal barely managed to get by Djokovic, in what will end up being one of the better 2009 non-slam matches of the year.

With that loss, Nadal walked into the French Open with reduced momentum, an apparent knee issue and some personal family-related issues.

At Nadal's legendary backyard (Rolland Garros), people refused to believe the master of clay could lose. Why? Because in French Open, he never had. He was virtually unbeatable going into the 2009 French Open, that is, until some Swedish rebel played the match of his life and dismantled the Spaniard. It was the upset of all upsets at the French, and while we didn't witness "Roger-like tears" from Nadal, it had to have hurt...badly.

Nadal then took some time off to deal with an injury. He only just returned to the competitive scene via the Montreal Masters, where he lost to Del Potro in the quarters. Andy Murray quietly stole his spot at No. 2 in the world. It's no coincidence Nadal lost to a future top three player in Del Potro, and then his ranking a possible future No. 1 in Murray.

It has been a difficult year for Nadal, however, he has an opportunity to fight like hell in a city where fighting like hell earns you respect and honor. New York will get behind the underdog and Rafa can use this to his advantage to slide through the first week and deep into the second. But he is not the No. 1 seed, or even the No. 2 seed here. He's No. 3. How the draw plays out for him will be revealed very shortly, and he may need the luck of the draw on his side.

Anything shy of the semifinals in my mind is going to be tough for Rafa. He MUST play up to his seed in order to walk away with anything positive. Yes, I know he is just returning from a significant injury, but this isn't Roger Federer. Nadal has a significantly smaller window of opportunity to haul majors because he plays like no other man out there, with sheer reckless abandon. His body won't survive into his 30's. He might have three or four if he's lucky before a) The body says good-night; or b) Del Potro, Murray and the rest of the upstarts take over tennis for good.

I also believe anything other than Rafa or Roger winning the U.S. Open will be an added hurdle for Rafael to overcome. Federer wins (no matter what happens to Nadal), and he has to feel some comfort because the universe he knows is still here. Throw in Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro, Roddick, or anyone else, and things change. The universe changes again. There are more guys with more confidence. There are deeper draws, tighter rankings, and ultimately improved competition for Nadal to deal with.

The 2009 edition of the U.S. Open could truly be a legendary tournament with so many men legitimately having a shot here. The field is so deep these days, with so many story lines, so many characters.

It's getting close folks, if you are less than ten hours away from New York, you had better start planning the road trip now!

Cheers,
MarkOskar