The 10 Most Plausible NFL Draft-Day Trades
Every year, the variables that make and break the first round of the NFL draft are the trades. Every mock draft is a road paved with good intentions, but the flurry of trades is the wrench in the gears for most draft pundits.
There were five trades in the first round of the 2014 draft, and five more in 2013. These prime-time moves are what really create the excitement and drama that draw millions to their televisions and computers on a Thursday night.
On paper, draft-day trades feel so plausible. Teams have specific needs, and looking at the value of the positions and draft slot you just plug in the formula—and bingo, you have a trade. And in some cases this is exactly what happens. In many more instances, one side tries to low-ball a team or inflate the value of its side so high that no middle ground can be found.
Based on the rumors out there, as well as studying the rosters and prospects, here are 10 trades that are quite plausible and would help the teams involved. Oh, and before you mention it, yes, these are hypothetical. There’s a good chance that one or all of these trades will not happen. But still, sit back and enjoy these possible trade scenarios.
The Philadelphia Eagles Trade Up to No. 2 and Draft Marcus Mariota
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This potential trade goes first because let’s be honest, this is the move everyone wants to see happen. Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has brought a sampling of the Oregon offense to the NFL, but adding quarterback Marcus Mariota would give NFL fans their first chance to see this offense full-bore.
How costly would this trade be? Well, based on the chart at Walter Football, pick No. 2 has a value of 2,600 points. By contrast, pick No. 20 only has a value of 850 points. That means in order to pull this trade off, Philadelphia would have to give up its 2016 first-round pick in addition to its second-round selection this year and probably next year as well. That's pricey for sure, but is Mariota the missing piece of the Eagles' puzzle?
The Miami Dolphins Hop from No. 14 to No. 8 for an Elite Wide Receiver
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It definitely feels like the Miami offense would benefit from a big-play wide receiver. However, sitting at No. 14 could leave the Dolphins on the outside looking in for any of the top wide receivers.
Going up to No. 8 and dealing with the Atlanta Falcons would allow them to jump over multiple teams that could also be looking for a wide receiver. This might not secure Amari Cooper or Kevin White, but it would give them a great shot at Louisville’s DeVante Parker.
How costly is a move from No. 14 to No. 8? The disparity between the two picks is only 300 points, which could mean the Dolphins get the pick and still keep their second-rounder. Giving up a third-rounder this year and another the following year could help Miami secure the wideout that quarterback Ryan Tannehill needs. On the other side, Atlanta would have its pick of good prospects ranging from an offensive tackle to a pass-rush specialist.
Pittsburgh Steelers Make a Move for a Pass-Rushing Outside Linebacker
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When a team has a definitive need, a move up is always possible. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, adding a pass-rushing outside linebacker is that exact need. Unfortunately, by the time they go on the clock at pick No. 22, the cupboards are going to be bare.
Is it better to reach for the sixth edge player, or should the Steelers make a move with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11 to secure one of the big five edge guys? If the Steelers could lock down Kentucky’s Bud Dupree or Missouri’s Shane Ray, their defense would be greatly improved.
A move of 11 spots like this wouldn’t be cheap. The best bet to even things out in the 470-point difference would be for Pittsburgh to try to give up a third-round pick in 2015 and another in 2016. While this move would help the Steelers, if the cost were a second-round pick in 2015, I can’t see general manager Kevin Colbert pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, the Vikings at No. 22 could consider a wide receiver or linebacker.
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New York Giants Trade Up to No. 5 and Draft Leonard Williams
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In the various mock drafts on the Internet, a common pick among pundits is for the New York Giants to draft Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton in the first round. This is a sound strategy, as Shelton is a great prospect.
However, if things unravel in such a way that USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams is still sitting there at pick No. 4, it would make sense that the Giants would try to move up to get the best player in the draft.
Going from No. 9 to No. 4 is only a 350-point move, which means the Giants could exchange a third-round pick and probably a fourth-round pick and make the move. The Giants get Williams, and the Oakland Raiders drop back and get either a top wide receiver or edge player.
Seattle Seahawks Trade Back into the First Round for a Running Back
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The Seattle Seahawks don’t have a pick until No. 63 due to they made the deal with the New Orleans Saints that brought them tight end Jimmy Graham. Depending on the direction the Seahawks go, there might not be an ideal mix of talent when they go on the clock in the second round.
That means Seattle might want to hop back into the first round if a top running back is still on the board at pick No. 23. Several teams later in the round will be considering a running back like Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon.
This trade would be huge. However, judging by the move to get Graham, mortgaging the future to win now isn’t out of the question for Seattle. Going from No. 63 to No. 23 would be cost nearly 500 points. That means a future second-round pick and possibly a third-rounder in 2015. The Seahawks get a top running back, and the Lions can slide back and still get an excellent defensive or offensive tackle in the second round.
Vikings Trade Adrian Peterson to the Dallas Cowboys
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Obviously, the Minnesota Vikings have no reason to trade star running back Adrian Peterson. Even with all the off-the-field problems, Peterson’s talent is all but unmatched. However, it might be time to cut ties and get some value for Peterson, and the Dallas Cowboys' pick (No. 27) would represent excellent value.
This type of trade would have to be straight across the board. This move would give the Cowboys the talent they need at running back to win now, and the Vikings could pick a running back with pick No. 27 for the future. Both teams win in this deal, but it will be tough for the Vikings to part with Peterson.
Oakland Raiders Trade Back and Still Get Their Wide Receiver
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If the Oakland Raiders choose to sit tight at No. 4, they should have a choice of the top wide receivers in the draft. However, if one of the top quarterbacks drops, the Raiders could be sitting on a gold mine with that pick to a team that wants to draft one. If the New York Jets feel like they need to move ahead of the Washington Redskins to be sure they get their guy, it is trade worth making.
Going from No. 6 to No. 4 isn’t a huge move, but it could be significant. The Jets could go up and get their franchise signal-caller, and the Raiders in their move back still get a top wide receiver or edge player. For the Jets to go up to No. 4, the cost would be nothing more than a third-round pick. That's a bargain if they hit on a star of the future at quarterback.
Cleveland Bundles Picks to Draft Its New Quarterback
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The Cleveland Browns are in a unique position. They have two first-round picks, which give them some power in terms of a trade. The only position the Browns would want to move up for would be a quarterback, so they could go up to No. 2 and make a deal with the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans would be wise to listen if Cleveland comes calling. It works for Cleveland because it gets either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, and the Titans win because they need all the talent they can get. With picks No. 13 and No. 19, Tennessee can get a pass-rushing outside linebacker like Nebraska’s Randy Gregory and still draft a talented quarterback in UCLA’s Brett Hundley.
The Detroit Lions Trade Back for a Running Back
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There is a lot of talent on the Detroit Lions offense. Unfortunately, that talent doesn’t seem to be centered on the running back position. With no more Reggie Bush on the roster, the need for a running back goes up significantly. But do the Lions want to spend the No. 23 pick on a replacement? There’s a real chance the top two running backs, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, both go off the board just a few picks after.
So why not let the rest of the league have those guys and instead trade back with a team that wants a running back badly, like the Dallas Cowboys at No. 27? The Lions could probably parlay that into a better draft choice than the chart might indicate. This is because the Cowboys would be allowed to hop over four or five teams that also want a running back. The Lions drop back and should have some excellent options at No. 27.
The Chicago Bears Finally Trade Quarterback Jay Cutler
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Who doesn’t want see the Chicago Bears packaging the No. 7 overall pick and disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler to the Tennessee Titans or Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a shot at drafting Mariota? The fact is if the Bears haven’t gotten over the hump with Cutler, they aren’t going to. At the same time, he could help one of the top teams to make a playoff push right away. The change of scenery might be exactly what Cutler needs.
Unfortunately, a move like this would be costly. Getting a top pick means paying top dollar. That means even with the pick-and-player swap, the Bears could be forced to give up a later draft pick as well.
Cutler needs a fresh start to see if he still has anything left in the tank. This trade would be great for everyone involved.
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