Gerod Holliman May Be Fool's Gold for NFL Teams in NFL Draft
Pittsburgh Steelers safety Troy Polamalu's recent retirement served as a dour reminder that the current crop of NFL safeties is underwhelming.
Polamalu himself hadn't been a great safety for a few years now, but both he and Ed Reed had proved to be the standard-bearers for the league for most of the past decade. Reed and Polamalu should both expect to be Hall of Famers within the next five or six years.
Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the natural replacements for Reed and Polamalu as the headliners of the current crop of safeties. Devin McCourty might also argue that he deserves to be mentioned in that class.
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What makes the current crop of safeties underwhelming isn't the absence of top-tier talent, but rather it's the absence of quality starters throughout the league.
Too many NFL teams are forced to work with substandard talents who hinder what their defensive coordinator can do. Part of this is the quality available at the position, but it's primarily a reflection of the direction the league is going in.
Very few of today's safeties can be classified as strong or free. That is because the NFL's greater focus on stretching the field vertically and horizontally—with both the run and the pass—forces each defensive player to have a more rounded skill set.
Safeties suffer the most from this because they work over the middle of the field. They are asked to cover a lot of space, match up to different kinds of athletes at tight end or in the slot, while still being reliable run defenders.
The athletic demands on safeties in today's NFL is great, but it's also a position where you need to show consistent discipline and technique.
It's possible to be a valuable NFL starter at other positions if you are simply a great athlete who excels in specific ways, but at safety you need to be a well-rounded player. That is the primary reason that Alabama's Landon Collins is considered the only first-round-caliber safety in this class.
Other safeties could slip into the first round, but any other potential safeties who are discussed aren't true safeties. Instead, they are cornerbacks who would be converted to safety after the draft.
Collins isn't a special player, but he has a skill set that is very rare across the league. His positional value will help his draft stock more than his inconsistent performances on the field in college will hurt it. The team that drafts him will be expecting him to be a quality contributor from his first moment on the field.
After Collins, there is a litany of other safeties who are touted as the second-best true safety in this class.
Every one of those players have relative strengths and weaknesses that make them either developmental prospects or flawed immediate starters. Of the group, there may not be a more fascinating prospect than Louisville's Gerod Holliman.
In just one season as a starting free safety, Holliman pulled in an incredible 14 interceptions—14 interceptions in just 13 games. Whenever a player starts for just one season at a position and enjoys a record-breaking (equalling) statistical season, he is going to draw a lot of attention.
Value in Coverage
While the NFL has some very impressive coverage safeties, the league doesn't have any notable ball hawks. The league doesn't have a constant turnover threat, such as Reed or Polamalu, anymore. Tashaun Gipson was enjoying that type of season before he was injured last year.
Holliman didn't simply fluke his way into catching 14 interceptions in 13 games last year. His ball skills and aggressiveness in coverage allowed him to create and take advantage of opportunities on a consistent basis.
Although he had a season-high three interceptions against Boston College last year, the high point of Holliman's season was undoubtedly his display against Florida State University and presumptive first overall pick Jameis Winston. Holliman intercepted Winston twice and should have caught another of his errant passes.
For his first interception, Holliman lines up on the right side as both safeties stay deep at the snap. The defense appears to be playing some form of Cover 2 as both safeties take one side of the field at the snap. It appears to be man coverage underneath, but confusion disrupts the three defenders underneath to the right.
Regardless, Holliman is still able to execute his job perfectly.
From the very beginning of the play, he has his eyes on Winston. He immediately gains depth as he drifts toward the right side of the field. With two defenders immediately underneath him, Holliman puts himself in position to turn and run down the seam or attack the corner route if it is thrown.
Winston unwisely lets the ball go toward his receiver who is running a corner route. That receiver never comes close to the ball as it is overthrown, but it likely wouldn't have mattered if it was on target because of how aggressive Holliman was in reading the play.
This proved to be an easy interception for the safety because of the speed and decisiveness he showed while reading the quarterback.
For his second interception, Holliman showed off the discipline to aggressively press the first receiver he encounters in zone before dropping off to recover onto a second. He is the right safety again on this occasion as the defense appears to employ a quarters coverage.
As the play develops, you can see how Holliman is initially drawn toward the tight end running up the seam. When that tight end breaks inside, Holliman quickly drops into the seam.
With his early recognition and quick feet, Holliman is able to recover his position to undercut Winston's attempted throw to his slot receiver running down the seam. The safety shows natural ball skills to comfortably leave his feet and pluck the ball out of the air.
This willingness to aggressively press the first receiver before anticipating the second is what too many NFL safeties struggle to do on a consistent basis. Controlled aggression in coverage isn't something Holliman consistently does, but the potential is clearly there to build upon.
On two other occasions, Holliman will feel aggrieved that he didn't come away with the interception against Winston.
The first was a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage that Holliman showed outstanding reaction skills to get to. He beat the receiver he was covering on a curl route to the ball, but that receiver was able to extend and just tip the ball away with his outstretched hand.
The second came after Winston stepped up in the pocket. The Louisville defense appeared to be playing a Tampa-2 coverage and the route combinations allowed Holliman to be free to read Winston and drift where his eyes went.
Winston threw the ball over the middle of the field, Holliman had the perfect read and break on it. The pick was only prevented by the middle linebacker running into Holliman just before he could reach out for the ball.
Holliman didn't test well at his pro day. That is obviously concerning, but there is a notable difference between compartmentalizing traits and observing how they work together on the field. Holliman appears to be a faster football player than tested athlete.
If Holliman is a more limited athlete than his tape suggests, then these big plays may not exist in the NFL.
Without those big plays, Holliman would simply be another overly aggressive safety that will be targeted by opposing offenses for big plays in the NFL. That kind of player is plentiful around the league, so for Holliman's sake, he needs his athleticism to translate.
Liability Against the Run
If Holliman was just an average all-around safety with his ability to turn the ball over, he would be one of the best NFL safeties. If he was a below-average all-around safety with this kind of ability to turn the ball over, he would be a very valuable starter.
Alas, for as much as Holliman's ball skills stand out, his inability against the run stands out more.
Holliman is a woeful tackler. He isn't a big-bodied player, officially listed at 6'0" and 218 pounds, and that lack of size is highlighted by his often awful technique. Tackling is something that can be significantly improved through coaching at the professional level, but the soon-to-be 21-year-old has a huge amount of work to do.
When you are a space player in the NFL, you have to be effective at locating ball-carriers in pursuit. Unfortunately for Holliman, he is awful at this.
He regularly overpursues offensive players in different areas of the field and lacks the ability or desire to redirect his feet and reverse his momentum to recover. For a player who appears so fluid and comfortable in coverage, this inability is surprising.
Teaching Holliman how to better close angles in pursuit is something that some NFL coaching staffs will feel they can do. Others will wonder why he hasn't learned it at this point. Not starting for more than one year at the position can be seen as a viable excuse or irrelevant context.
Just teaching Holliman proper pursuit technique would help him, but not by a huge amount. That is because he also lacks intensity and technique at the point of contact.
Too often Holliman wouldn't use his shoulder to contact ball carriers low before attempting to wrap them up. He prefers to try and hit players high with his limited bulk. Against college athletes this proved to be a major issue, so it should only get worse against NFL athletes.
A lack of intensity, technique and awareness in pursuit will keep even the most valuable coverage defenders on the sideline.
Fixing Holliman won't be easy, but he doesn't need to become a great run defender to be valuable. As the Philadelphia Eagles showed with Malcolm Jenkins this past season, coaching can alter the success of a run defender at the safety spot.
Jenkins was a liability as a run defender with the New Orleans Saints before leaving last year. His issues weren't as great as Holliman's project to be, but the growth he showed was still significant.
If the team that drafts Holliman can make him a viable run defender through coaching, then he could prove to be the biggest steal of this whole draft class. However, that seems like an unlikely future. Probability suggests that whatever team takes Holliman will be investing in fool's gold.
Too many things must change for Holliman to be a valuable starter at the professional level.
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