Biggest Obstacles Bayern Munich Face in Reaching the Champions League Final

A couple of months ago, Bayern Munich were almost certainly on their way to record another historic "treble." The blue and red ribbons were ready to adorn the Bundesliga, Champions League and DFB-Pokal trophies. Nothing could stop Bayern.

Or so it seemed.

While they are still romping their way to a third successive Bundesliga crown, their fate in the other two competitions now seems less likely. They still remain favourites to lift Europe’s most coveted prize, but that eventuality is not as likely as it seemed a couple of months ago.

Back then, Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich were brushing aside all in their path, both in Germany and on the continent. But since the winter break, the Bavarians have struggled to impose themselves in the manner that had made them so irresistible earlier on in the campaign.

And so, while being crowned as champions of the Bundesliga still seems a certainty, and securing domestic club glory is a possibility, matching that with European success is less assured, with a number of obstacles set to hinder Bayern in their quest for the ultimate triumph.

Matthias Schrader/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

Chief among their concerns is sure to be the injury crisis that is beginning to develop at the Allianz Arena, with the injuries to Arjen Robben and David Alaba particularly worrying.

The absence of these two individuals will be particularly damaging for Guardiola as they have arguably been Bayern Munich’s two best players this season.

Robben, with 19 goals and 10 assists to his name, has spent the majority of this campaign terrorising opposition defences and represents perhaps the one player in Bayern’s squad who can truly turn a game around on his own.

His absence has already seen a change in Bayern’s approach, with Guardiola opting to go for a more narrow style, taking away one of the side’s most dangerous aspects—pace and width.

This is something recognised by Raphael Honigstein in his column for ESPN FC: "The current team is probably the narrowest Guardiola has ever had to play—devoid of any natural wide attacking players, with two centre-forwards and three/four central-midfielders behind them."

The same can be said for the loss of Alaba. A left-back by trade, the 22-year-old Austrian has become a fundamental cog in the Bavarian machine, operating in a variety of different positions and roles, with his quality and versatility a real strength of his game.

Despite the depth of Bayern’s squad, these are two individuals who are particularly difficult to replace, and their injuries will undoubtedly damage Bayern’s chances of success in the Champions League.

However, these two are not alone in causing a selection headache. Franck Ribery’s fitness levels have long been a concern at the club, and it seems he will miss as many matches as he will play from now until the end of what has been a miserable personal campaign for the Frenchman.

Add to that long-term injury absentee Javi Martinez and Mehdi Benatia (injured in Wednesday’s game against Bayer Leverkusen) and you are already halfway to creating a very good side of absentees.

There are some positives on the injury front, with the likes of Philipp Lahm and Thiago Alcantara both returning to the fray, but there will certainly be worries over the extent to which injuries to other key players could harm Bayern’s European challenge.

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

If injuries are likely to be one obstacle, then indifferent form from individuals and the team as a whole is likely to be another hindrance.

Bayern Munich have not possessed the same fear factor they had before the winter break. Since then, they have been hammered by Wolfsburg (4-1), outsmarted by Borussia Monchengladbach (2-0) and held by a relatively poor Schalke 04 (1-1), while in recent weeks there has been an element of tiredness to the Bavarians.

To say that Bayern have struggled when facing tougher opposition would not be an overstatement, and while it is easy to blow away inferior opponents, these are not the calibre of sides they will face in the latter stages of the Champions League.

Furthermore, players are not producing what would be expected. This will be a specific source of anxiety for Pep Guardiola with the loss of star man Arjen Robben.

Robert Lewandowski has experienced an unexceptional debut campaign, while the likes of Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze have gone through spells of inconsistency.

In his ESPN FC column, Honigstein noted these troubles: "At Dortmund on Saturday, Bayern had to rely on one proper attack to score the solitary goal; against Leverkusen they didn't score at all. You can't go on doing so much with so little for ever, especially against teams than can really hurt you."

Matthias Schrader/Associated Press

There are additional obstacles that may hold back Bayern in their pursuit of European glory. While they dismantled Shakhtar Donetsk 7-0 in the second leg of their last-16 tie, Bayern’s away performance in the first leg will have been a source of encouragement for the other sides left in the Champions League.

Shakhtar illustrated that Bayern Munich will be frustrated by a simple approach of sitting back, absorbing the pressure and looking to counter, something Schalke were also able to do when they held Bayern.

While the Ukrainians were unable to take advantage of their approach, both they and Roberto Di Matteo’s side hinted at the tactics that can stifle Bayern.

This is worrying, given that those teams in the Champions League capable of deploying such tactics are also in good form.

Paris Saint-Germain will have been buoyed by their victory over Chelsea, as well as their upturn in domestic fortunes, and are more than capable of frustrating Bayern with a disciplined approach should they overcome Barcelona. The same can be said of the likes of Atletico Madrid and Juventus.

Paulo Duarte/Associated Press

This is ignoring the far from straightforward task facing the Bavarians in the quarter-finals. Porto are a very good outfit, one who have lost just twice in 2015, winning 14 of their 19 games in all competitions.

They are also unbeaten in the Champions League this season and have scored 21 goals in the competition, the second most behind Bayern Munich.

Their 4-0 demolition of FC Basel will have been an adequate warning for Bayern, especially when it is considered that it came without their own key player Jackson Martinez—who with 17 goals, power and athletic pace, will relish the opportunity to prove himself on the big stage.

The threat Porto pose has certainly been recognised by Guardiola, with his comments passed on by Goal: "They are very strong physically and attack with a lot of pace, but in the quarter-finals you can't expect an easy match."

This is not, though, to say Bayern Munich will not overcome Porto. The Portuguese side are a good team, one that merits their place at this stage, but Pep Guardiola’s men should have enough to make it through.

Tougher confrontations do, however, lie ahead. Returnees soften the blow somewhat, but Bayern Munich are currently entering an injury crisis, one that is being compounded by indifferent form.

While they may escape from a tie with Porto unscathed, could the same be said of a Robben-less Bayern should they face Barcelona or Atletico Madrid in the next round?

Thus, while for the time being the dream of the treble will live on, Bayern’s chances in the Champions League are not what they were a month or so ago.