Football League: Promotion and Relegation Scenarios, Weekend Permutations

Less than four weeks of the regular football league season remain the prospect or promotion or relegation looms large.

Heading into Week 42 of the 2014-15 campaign, we analyse what the top clubs need in order to seal their promotion, along with discussion of what's required by those closer to the bottom if they're to stay up.

We begin with the Championship...

R	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bournemouth	41	22	11	8	87	43	+44	77
2	Norwich	41	22	10	9	79	43	+36	76
3	Watford	41	23	7	11	82	48	+34	76
4	Middlesbrough	41	22	9	10	60	32	+28	75
5	Derby	41	20	11	10	73	45	+28	71
6	Wolverhampton Wanderers	41	20	11	10	62	49	+13	71
7	Brentford	41	21	7	13	70	55	+15	70
8	Ipswich	41	19	11	11	61	46	+15	68
9	Nottingham Forest	41	15	13	13	65	58	+7	58
10	Blackburn	40	15	12	13	54	50	+4	57
11	Charlton	41	13	16	12	50	53	-3	55
12	Sheffield Wednesday	41	13	15	13	37	43	-6	54
13	Cardiff	41	13	13	15	49	54	-5	52
14	Leeds	41	14	10	17	46	54	-8	52
15	Birmingham	40	12	14	14	47	60	-13	50
16	Bolton	41	13	10	18	50	58	-8	49
17	Huddersfield	41	12	12	17	51	69	-18	48
18	Reading	40	12	10	18	44	63	-19	46
19	Brighton	41	10	15	16	43	48	-5	45
20	Fulham	41	12	8	21	52	73	-21	44
21	Rotherham	41	10	13	18	42	62	-20	43
22	Millwall	40	8	12	20	35	65	-30	36
23	Wigan	41	8	11	22	35	55	-20	35
24	Blackpool	41	4	13	24	32	80	-48	25

Date	Time	Home	Score	Away
Friday, April 10	7:45 p.m. BST/2:45 p.m. ET	Brighton	vs.	Bournemouth
Friday, April 10	8 p.m. BST/3 p.m. BST	Fulham	vs.	Wigan
Saturday, April 11	12:15 p.m. BST/7:15 a.m. ET	Derby County	vs.	Brentford
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Leeds United	vs.	Cardiff City
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Bolton	vs.	Norwich City
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Middlesbrough	vs.	Rotherham
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Millwall	vs.	Watford
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Ipswich Town	vs.	Blackpool
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Sheffield Wednesday	vs.	Charlton Athletic
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Reading	vs.	Blackburn Rovers
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Birmingham City	vs.	Wolves
Saturday, April 11	3 p.m. BST/10 a.m. BST	Nottingham Forest	vs.	Huddersfield Town

The Championship

With five games remaining in the Championship season, Eddie Howe's Bournemouth remain the team to beat at the table's summit, holding a slim one-point lead over both Norwich City, second, and Watford in third.

However, with just six points separating the table-topping Cherries from sixth-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers, there really is no telling who will take the automatic promotion places come May 2.

Dan Mullan/Getty Images

Due to the conditions being so tight at the top, Bournemouth must keep winning in plain terms. Even a single loss in the next five outings could see any one of Norwich, Watford or Middlesbrough, fourth, leapfrog them into top spot.

Sky Sports' Adam Bate pointed out earlier in the week that Boro's current position could have been far cheerier, but a 2-0 loss to Watford leaves them two points adrift of top spot:

The worries aren't over for Aitor Kairanka's side, either, as they must travel to Carrow Road next Friday in a veritable six-pointer to either raise or condemn their hopes of finishing among the top two.

Derby and Wolves, fifth and sixth respectively, can't move up in the standings this weekend irrespective of how their superiors perform.

However, Kenny Jackett's Wolves will travel to Teesside next Tuesday to face a clutch encounter with Boro and the Daily Mail's Peter Lansley is tipping Wolves as a team to watch out for in this season's run-in:

Outside the current top six, Brentford and Ipswich Town are the only teams who will realistically hold onto any dream of sealing their spots in the playoffs—or better.

As things stand, seventh-place Brentford sit just a point away from Wolves, but there's fight in the eighth-place Tractor Boys, too, who claimed a valuable draw against Bournemouth last week.

Paul Thomas/Getty Images

With Blackpool's drop to England's third tier sealed on Monday evening, the race is on to avoid the remaining two relegation places—and it doesn't look good for Millwall or Wigan Athletic.

Of that pair, the Lions certainly have more to be positive about, sitting in 22nd, seven points away from Rotherham in 21st and having played a game fewer than the vast majority of the division.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Wigan rest a point and a place below that and don't have the luxury of a game in hand. The Latics need at least three wins from their last five games to stay up, a nigh-inconceivable thought given that the side have won only eight of their 40 outings so far this term.

Recently retired defender Gary Caldwell has taken over the reins at the DW Stadium and even with no previous managerial experience, the Scot believes he can keep the club up, per the Daily Star's James McMath:

"

Having played here in the great survivals of the Premier League era I believe that nothing's impossible. There were times when we were down and out. I think of the run we went on when we beat Liverpool, Man Utd, Arsenal - they are things that at the time seemed like miracles.

It can happen and we still believe it can.

"

Southampton digital communications manager Jim Lucas believes Millwall have what it takes to survive in the Championship, but they face an incredibly difficult run-in, starting with Saturday's visit of Watford:

Four of the Lions' remaining six fixtures are against teams in the top half of the Championship, which is good news for the likes of Rotherham, Fulham, Brighton and Reading, each within a handful of points of one another.

League One

Position	Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1	Bristol City	41	26	10	5	79	35	+44	88
2	Preston North End	40	23	11	6	68	33	+35	80
3	Milton Keynes Dons	40	22	9	9	81	40	+41	75
4	Swindon Town	39	21	7	11	65	45	+20	70
5	Sheffield United	41	19	10	12	61	47	+14	67
6	Chesterfield	41	18	9	14	60	51	+9	63
7	Rochdale	40	18	5	17	66	52	+14	59
8	Fleetwood Town	41	16	11	14	45	44	+1	59
9	Bradford City	40	15	12	13	51	46	+5	57
10	Peterborough U…	41	17	6	18	46	49	-3	57
11	Barnsley	41	16	8	17	54	57	-3	56
12	Doncaster Rovers	40	14	11	15	50	54	-4	53
13	Oldham Athletic	41	14	11	16	50	61	-11	53
14	Gillingham	41	13	13	15	57	61	-4	52
15	Walsall	40	11	15	14	36	42	-6	48
16	Port Vale	41	14	6	21	49	59	-10	48
17	Coventry City	41	11	14	16	44	55	-11	47
18	Scunthorpe United	40	12	11	17	52	64	-12	47
19	Crawley Town	41	12	11	18	46	66	-20	47
20	Leyton Orient	40	12	10	18	54	57	-3	46
21	Crewe Alexandra	41	13	7	21	37	70	-33	46
22	Notts County	40	11	12	17	39	52	-13	45
23	Colchester United	40	12	8	20	51	65	-14	44
24	Yeovil Town	41	8	9	24	31	67	-36	33

Eight points clear at the head of League One with five games remaining, Bristol City are in good shape to make a return to the Championship almost two years after finishing bottom in the 2012-13 campaign.

Unbeaten in their last 10 outings, Steve Cotterill's men face a potential title decider at Preston North End on Saturday, with BBC Sport's Caroline Chapman of the impression they already have top spot in the bag:

Preston do boast the advantage of a game in hand over City and a win this weekend could effectively haul the league leaders within two points, but it's difficult to see the Robins dropping many points after that.

Preston also face fourth-place Swindon Town in a fortnight's time, the latter sitting 10 points off the automatic promotion places, but Bristol City's Aden Flint is hoping to see his former club miss the top six, per Paddy Power:

MK Dons in third, who also have a game in hand over Cotterill's men, sit five points off Preston and look like the only team capable of disrupting the top two as the league's top scorers this season.

At the other end of the standings, it would take a miracle for Yeovil Town to escape the bottom four, with the Daily Mail reporting on Thursday that former Torquay United boss Paul Sturrock has taken over at their helm:

Defeat at Notts County on Saturday would seal the club's relegation to League Two, while Colchester United, County and Crewe Alexandra, 23rd, 22nd and 21st, respectively, still cling on to some hope of survival.

There lies only four points difference between Colchester, second to last, and Walsall in 15th, showing just how dramatically this weekend's results could shift matters in the fight to avoid the drop.

League Two

Position	Team	MP	W	D	L	F	A	D	P
1	Burton Albion	41	24	9	8	59	34	+25	81
2	Shrewsbury Town	41	24	8	9	61	28	+33	80
3	Wycombe Wanderers	41	20	14	7	60	40	+20	74
4	Bury	40	21	7	12	53	39	+14	70
5	Southend United	40	19	12	9	47	35	+12	69
6	Stevenage	41	17	11	13	56	49	+7	62
7	Newport County	41	17	11	13	47	46	+1	62
8	Plymouth Argyle	41	17	10	14	47	31	+16	61
9	Luton Town	41	17	10	14	49	42	+7	61
10	Exeter City	41	16	13	12	57	55	+2	61
11	Northampton Town	41	17	6	18	60	53	+7	57
12	Morecambe	41	14	12	15	44	46	-2	54
13	AFC Wimbledon	41	14	12	15	52	56	-4	54
14	Portsmouth	41	13	14	14	48	47	+1	53
15	Dagenham & Red…	41	15	7	19	50	54	-4	52
16	Oxford United	41	12	14	15	43	48	-5	50
17	Accrington Stanley	41	14	8	19	51	67	-16	50
18	Cambridge United	41	12	11	18	53	55	-2	47
19	York City	41	9	18	14	42	46	-4	45
20	Mansfield Town	41	12	9	20	33	53	-20	45
21	Carlisle United	41	12	6	23	49	69	-20	42
22	Hartlepool United	41	11	7	23	33	61	-28	40
23	Tranmere Rovers	41	9	12	20	43	58	-15	39
24	Cheltenham Town	41	8	13	20	35	60	-25	37

In a similar scenario to the division above, League Two's top two combatants are currently some distance ahead of their peers, with Burton Albion, first, and Shrewsbury Town, second, establishing daylight at the summit.

The Brewers did look like clear title favourites, but back-to-back draws recently allowed Shrewsbury to climb within a point of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's men, much to their manager's disdain.

Ben Hoskins/Getty Images

Fortunately for Burton, Saturday's opponents, ninth-place Luton Town, are the highest-placed opposition they'll have to face in their remaining five fixtures, giving them some hope of not losing another point before season's end.

Six points below Shrewsbury sit Wycombe in third, whose place in the automatic promotion spots is far from assured, although OptaJoe's Duncan Alexander highlights Wanderers' superb away form this term:

With Bury just four points behind and with a game in hand, the Chairboys have work to do before promotion is booked, but a home fixture against last-place Cheltenham Town on Saturday should provide a boost to morale.

Bury and Southend each need to claim just six and seven points more, respectively, before their places in the playoffs are rubber-stamped, but there's a more heated battle to claim sixth and seventh spot.

Ker Robertson/Getty Images

Sixth-place Stevenage rest just a single point over Exeter City in 10th and there's sure to be a mad scramble from all the clubs residing in that area to avoid dropping points this late.

Unfortunately for Newport County, promotion hopes look dim. Jimmy Dack's men host Bury on Saturday before travelling to Southend just three days later and even their own boss concedes the team has overachieved, per BBC Sport:

"

We might not be one of the biggest clubs in this [promotion] shake-up but we are hopefully there to spoil the party. We are punching above our weight as a club.

We're in our second season in the Football League and pushing for the play-offs again which, for a club of our size, is a massive achievement.

"

The cut-off point for relegation is set to shrink again this weekend, but as things stand, any team from 14th-place Portsmouth down could still find themselves in trouble.

Basement side Cheltenham are only three points from safety, but the Hartlepool Mail reports Pools chief Ronnie Moore is unsurprisingly hoping to see those currently in last place fail in their survival bid:

Both Hartlepool, 22nd, and Tranmere Rovers, 23rd, have three away trips to face in their last five fixtures, travelling to York City and Southend on Saturday, respectively.