2015 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Boom or Bust Prospects

A lot goes into determining whether or not a player is a bust. It usually takes a few years of underachievement or some major event that effectively ends a player's career before that label can be given. Often, the players with the highest bust potential also have the most upside. That's what makes them so intriguing to NFL general managers and talent evaluators.

The positives are usually excellent athleticism and/or a high football I.Q. The potential hazards can range from a low motor and effort issues to character concerns and a bad injury history. This mock will identify and predict the rookie seasons for three boom-or-bust prospects.

Obviously, we don't know if a player will be injured, so that won't be factored into the prediction, but it will be noted where applicable. The spotlighted players' names are highlighted in the table below.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago Bears	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
14	Miami Dolphins	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
15	San Francisco 49ers	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
16	Houston Texans	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
17	San Diego Chargers	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Alvin "Bud" Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
29	Indianapolis Colts	La'el Collins, OL, LSU
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
32	New England Patriots	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

Dorial Green-Beckham

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

When you look at Dorial Green-Beckham's measurements, you can't help but think about the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson. Green-Beckham is 6'5", 237 pounds. From day one in the NFL, he figures to be a handful for any defensive back to handle.

There's no questioning his physical traits, but there might be plenty of questions about his character. Originally, Green-Beckham attended the University of Missouri as one of the school's most prized recruits back in 2012. In two seasons, he tallied 87 receptions for 1,278 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Tigers.

Unfortunately, three off-the-field incidents led to his dismissal from the team in 2014, and he subsequently transferred to the University of Oklahoma. He never played a down for the Sooners as he sat out the 2014 season in observance of transfer rules.

He made the decision to enter the draft and has seemingly done everything possible to repair his image. 

With that said, the collective reputation of NFL players took a beating in 2014. Teams could be wary of selecting Green-Beckham. It's totally possible the incidents that led to his dismissal from Missouri could serve as a lesson learned. However, there's going to be a question as to whether DGB will have other similar issues once his NFL career gets started.

From what we've seen in recent months, DGB is handling himself in an honest and accountable manner. He doesn't make excuses for his past issues, and he seems eager to prove to everyone that he is a different man.

If he stays on the straight and narrow, he could be an instant weapon for the team that drafts him. In the red zone, he's nearly unguardable. His size and athleticism make him a great option for the fade route. 

If he does land with the San Francisco 49ers, he could be exactly what Colin Kaepernick needs to help push him to the next level.

Todd Gurley

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

Were it not for Todd Gurley's injury-plagued stay at the University of Georgia, he'd likely be penciled in as a top-15 pick in the draft. He tore his ACL in 2014 and missed time with an injury in 2013.

Those injuries have cooled the jets of draft prognosticators forecasting Gurley's landing spot. Before his injury in 2014, Gurley displayed next-level versatility and game-breaking ability with the ball in his hands.

In just six games, he ran for 911 yards and nine touchdowns. He caught 12 passes for 57 yards and even returned four kickoffs. One of those kickoff returns went for a touchdown. At 6'1" and 222 pounds, Gurley has the requisite size to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

The question is can he stay healthy?

No one knows the answer, but if he spends more time on the field than he does on a surgeon's table, he is the most can't-miss offensive player in the draft. Gurley's blend of size and speed doesn't come along often. Physically, he's similar to the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson.

If he plays at least 12 games in 2015—especially if he's taken by the Dallas Cowboys—Gurley will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Marcus Mariota

After winning the Heisman Trophy and guiding his team to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you'd think Marcus Mariota wouldn't have anything left to prove. He has the requisite size at 6'4", 222 pounds. He's considered a natural leader and solid citizen.

Athletically, he's elite. He showed off his 4.52 40-yard-dash time and 36-inch vertical leap at the NFL Scouting Combine.

The questions about Mariota stem primarily from his lack of experience in a pro-style offense. His Oregon Ducks ran a spread scheme that hasn't produced quality NFL quarterbacks in most cases. There has yet to be an Oregon quarterback who has found success in the NFL after playing in the team's spread offense.

Mariota's initial pro-day workout wasn't overly impressive, and it led to Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston passing him up on most draft boards. But Mariota has begun to win over supporters again. Per Michael David Smith of NBC Sports, NFL.com's Mike Mayock pushed Mariota back into his top spot.

“The more tape I’ve watched, the more I’ve appreciated what he’s asked to do in their version of the spread offense: He reads combination routes, he takes tremendous care of the football and he wins games. Now, he’s not as natural a thrower, but in the correct scheme I think he can be productive,” Mayock said.

That's a solid endorsement, but it still sounds overly scheme dependent.

There's no question in my mind Mariota will have a steeper learning curve than Winston. However, when a player has the size, athleticism, intelligence, work ethic and competitiveness that Mariota has, it's hard to doubt him. If Mariota lands with a team like the Chicago Bears, where he can sit behind a veteran—whether it be Jay Cutler or Jimmy Clausen—his work ethic and desire should result in success.

He'll learn the offense and turn into a very good NFL quarterback. It won't happen as a rookie, but barring injury, the team that takes Mariota will be happy it did.