Justise Winslow's Sky-High Ceiling Will Make Him Top-5 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
There are prospects who are on the NBA draft radar, and there are those who completely overtake the radar.
Duke's Justise Winslow was the former, and now he's the latter. He's cashing in on that rising stock; he declared his jump to the pros Tuesday via Steve Wiseman of The Herald-Sun.
The real transformation is only beginning.
He was considered a lottery pick throughout his freshman year. But after revealing more of his fascinating potential during the Blue Devils' NCAA title run, the "lottery" label sells him short.
The 6'6" dynamo has emerged as the most valuable wing available in the eyes of most scouts and prognosticators. His projected ceiling is now lofty enough to sneak him into the third, fourth or fifth slot on draft night, depending on the selection order.
"As is true of everyone at this point, I like Justise Winslow a lot. Currently No. 5 on my board. Wouldn’t be crazy to see him rise to No. 3.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) April 14, 2015"
What exactly separates him? He hasn't demonstrated mastery of many offensive skills yet, so why would a general manager pluck him with a top pick?
Multidimensional Offensive Potential
When it comes to ball-handling skills, mid-range shooting and low-post polish, Winslow is still in the early stages of development. He doesn't have advanced dribbling moves to create offense in tight spaces, and he shot just 27 percent on two-point jumpers (per Hoop-math.com). It will take time and a healthy share of mistakes before he consistently executes a refined repertoire.
But the key is that he's shown tantalizing potential in the aforementioned facets.
As the season unfolded, he demonstrated increased comfort and fluidity as a slasher and innovator off the bounce. He finished the campaign scoring 18.3 points and dishing 3.4 assists per 40 minutes during the NCAA tournament.
| PTS | REB | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 3FG% | |
| Pre-NCAA Tourney (33 Games) | 17.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | .482 | .396 |
| NCAA Tourney | 18.3 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | .509 | .571 |
Despite his rawness as a handler, he shows an ability to change directions and shake his defender with outstanding body control. After some refining, he'll be an exceptionally dangerous driver from the wing.
When Winslow beats his man, he's not just in scoring mode. He's adept at finding open teammates, as evidenced by 13 games with three-plus assists. That's superb for a freshman forward. As a comparison, fellow one-and-done swingman Kelly Oubre from Kansas posted only three such games.
He projects to excel around the rim in the NBA, given his elite athleticism, 6'10" wingspan and nose for the bucket. According to Hoop-math.com, he shot 67 percent at the rim in 2014-15. His instincts and alertness away from the ball enable him to capitalize on a smorgasbord of opportunities every game.
"He's a beast going to the basket," one NBA scout told ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman. "As his offense continues to develop to go with the body and defense, he has a bright future."
Outside shooting was one of his biggest question marks entering the season, but he displayed a smooth, confident delivery from deep. Winslow found another gear from three-point range in the Big Dance, sinking 8-of-14 (57 percent) triples. He finished the season at 46-of-110 (42 percent) from beyond the arc.
There's no reason to believe his efficiency won't eventually extend to NBA range.
These promising tools indicate that he could be a potent secondary scorer or even a featured offensive weapon down the road. He'll be able to play up to three positions as an inside-out contributor.
Elite, Versatile Defense
Whereas Winslow's offense is in the early stages of growth, his defense is closer to NBA-ready.
He didn't always apply the best fundamentals or positional spacing at Duke, but his talent and motor on that end were unmistakable.
With a rangy physique and quick feet, he bottled up opposing guards and wings on countless occasions. He often changed the game with his ability to hound playmakers far away from the basket. Winslow's defense in unsettled situations was also electric; his instincts and explosiveness erased many fast breaks and served as critical insurance from the weak side.
In the home stretch of the regular season and through the postseason, Winslow also showed he could defend the frontcourt. He played the 4-man in Duke's small-ball lineup, protecting the rim with 2.1 blocks and 11.9 rebounds per 40 minutes in the tourney.
His versatility helped Duke transform its team stoppage, and it peaked at the right time. The defensive flexibility also suggested he could check some power forwards in shorter NBA lineups.
The Cauldron's Jonathan Tjarks explains that he could adopt a similar role to undersized defensive savant Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors.
"For Winslow, the quickest path to providing a major NBA bang for the buck may be for him to follow in the mold of Green," Tjarks wrote.
He won't be able to guard all 4's, but his capability to check many of them will give his coach two-way flexibility. Lineups have become less dependent on two traditional post players, and it's likely that the trend will continue. Winslow will stymie players up to 6'9" while making them pay on the other end by spacing the floor and using his speed.
The physical tools and noticeable skills potential are enticing, but his relentless passion is what ensures his team will get the most out of him. One NBA scout explained how this enhances his stock (per ESPN.com's Chad Ford).
"I love the hunger that he plays the game with. He's hungry on offense. He's hungry on defense. He wants to destroy you. His skill set offensively is still pretty raw. But it's that fire that I think gets him drafted. Stanley Johnson is inconsistent with it. It's tough to tell what [Mario] Hezonja has. Kelly Oubre is more of a cool customer. But Winslow? He wants to attack you every second he's out there. I can't see how he fails in the NBA.
"
Favorable Comparisons
While he could play a comparable role to Green in certain situations, his closest NBA likenesses are of the versatile swingman variety.
Given his defensive traits and dynamic offensive impact, Winslow projects as a Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard-type of small forward once he hits his prime. Like these two stars, he could be a shutdown defender, secondary playmaker and the most multifaceted offensive threat on his team. Leonard has also been compared to Andre Iguodala, who's a smoother version of Butler and Leonard.
Initially, he'll serve as a fourth scoring option and energetic defender off the bench. But within a couple of years, he'll reach their neighborhood of production and impact.
Apologies to Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Mario Hezonja, but Winslow is the one whose ceiling is closest to those ridiculously multidimensional small forwards.
And that ceiling should not be undersold. A quick look at their peak NBA seasons suggests how potent the freshman's untapped potential is:
| PTS | REB | AST | BLK | STL | PER | O-Rating/ D-Rating | |
| Butler 2014-15 | 18.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 21.2 | 122-105 |
| Leonard 2014-15 | 18.8 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 22.2 | 113-96 |
| Iguodala 2007-08 | 18.1 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 19.0 | 110-105 |
If the Duke prodigy develops without major interruptions and accesses his offensive potential, his numbers will be quite similar to this trio's.
In almost any draft class, a general manager would love the chance to pick a Butler/Leonard type of player at No. 5. Depending on the other prospects available, the GM might even take the chance on that player at No. 3 or 4 overall.
That's how most NBA decision-makers will likely view Winslow on draft night. You can use him at a high level in several lineup variations, and he projects to thrive in the NBA's increasingly sleeker and smaller style. His interchangeability makes him the type of prospect more and more teams will fall in love with as we get closer to June.
Franchises like the Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers could all use an explosive multipurpose forward like Winslow. Given his upside and their needs, I wouldn't be surprised if one of these clubs snagged him as high as the top-three range. And in Orlando's case, he could be worth the No. 1 selection.
No matter how the ping pong balls fall, it's becoming more difficult to imagine a scenario where he falls outside the top five.
He simply belongs on the 2015 draft's top shelf.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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