Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 1 Buzz, Rumors

The 2015 MLB season is finally here, and we have plenty of news and notes to discuss after just a few days of action. So let's play fact or fiction with the latest buzz and rumors around the league.

Let's talk about the state of the San Francisco Giants and their bad-luck rotation. How concerned should the defending World Series champions be about injuries to their starters?

Let's discuss Masahiro Tanaka's debut. What should the New York Yankees make of their ace's reduced velocity?

Let's analyze two teams trending in opposite directions: the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves. Are the Bravos being undervalued offensively? Are the Padres really the best team in the NL West?

And let's discuss David Price's impending free agency. Is the Detroit Tigers' southpaw slated to become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history?

We have plenty of topics to dive into, so let's get started! 

The San Francisco Giants Should Be Worried About Their Rotation

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Madison Bumgarner. 

That's where the reliability of the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation starts and ends. 

The defending World Series champs have enjoyed stellar starting pitching during their recent run of success, but the Giants have stumbled onto some bad luck to begin the season. 

Matt Cain missed most of the 2014 season with arm issues, and according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, he'll be heading to the disabled list before throwing one regular-season pitch. Continuing the trend of bad news, Baggarly notes that Jake Peavy could be joining Cain after his back issues remained after a bullpen session.

The Giants did see some good fortune with Tim Hudson recovering from his offseason ankle surgery in time for Opening Day. But the remainder of the temporary rotation will be made up of rookie Chris Heston and veterans Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum. 

That's not exactly the high-caliber staff a defending champion hopes to bring into the following season. 

The biggest concern lies with Cain, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle is quick to mention: "Cain’s symptoms put a big scare into the Giants because they can reflect the most devastating pitching injury, a torn ulnar collateral ligament, which requires Tommy John surgery. Bochy said Cain has nothing like that and termed his injury 'more like a two-week thing.'

As mentioned in the quote above, the Giants remain optimistic that Cain can regain his previous best and return to full health. But as Schulman puts it, Cain's resurgence is a "big part of the master plan to win a division title." 

The Verdict: Fact

San Francisco should definitely be concerned with the current state of its rotation.

After Bumgarner, the rest of the staff consists of inconsistent options. Cain and Peavy could return to full health, but how many games will the Giants fall behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres while those two hurlers are on the shelf? 

The 2015 Atlanta Braves Will Be Worse Offensively Than in 2014

Joe Skipper/Associated Press

Yeah, yeah. It's been two games. 

But so far, so good for an Atlanta Braves lineup that many pundits believe will finish at the bottom of many offensive categories. The Braves chased Miami Marlins starter Mat Latos with a seven-run first inning Tuesday, scoring 12 runs and pounding out 14 hits. 

The Braves did so not by way of the long ball, but by putting the ball in play. As MLB.com's Mark Bowman notes, Tuesday's explosion was the first time the Braves scored 12 or more runs with five or fewer strikeouts since June 10.

Atlanta's winter reclamation project included the trades of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis. In fact, Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons are the only full-time starters remaining on the 2015 Bravos. 

While the Braves surrendered plenty of talent this offseason, it's not like a more talented lineup last season tore the cover off the ball. Atlanta ranked 29th in runs scored in 2015 while finishing 26th in average, 24th in OBP and 27th in strikeout percentage. 

Instead of the feast-or-famine type of offense the Braves displayed last season, this year's edition is built to put the ball in play and crank up the pressure on opposing defenses. While it may not equate to more wins in the standings, a more refined approach at the plate should be easier on the eyes. 

MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince sums up why Braves fans should remain optimistic in this quote from a recent article: 

"

Definitely don't go printing playoff tickets on the basis of the 2-0 start, but the starting rotation looks solid, and an offensive approach built more on contact and a little speed (witness the way offseason acquisition Eric Young Jr. totally took over on the basepaths in the sixth inning to manufacture the go-ahead run in the opener) might prove to be more productive than what we saw last year, back when Atlanta had all those key lineup pieces in place and still managed to lose 83 games.

"

The Verdict: Fiction

The Braves are adopting an evolving approach across the league. With so much young, talented pitching across baseball, lineups that can get on base and manufacture runs are becoming more valuable than ones that rely on the home run. 

No, they won't make the playoffs. But there's no reason to think Atlanta's offense can't improve from a horrid 2014 with a better overall approach at the dish. 

The Yankees Should Be Worried About Masahiro Tanaka's Lack of Velocity

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Masahiro Tanaka looked like a shell of his former self in his 2015 debut against the Toronto Blue Jays. The 26-year-old hurler gave up five runs in just four innings of work. 

Tanaka told David Waldstein of The New York Times in spring training that he anticipated his velocity to be down in 2015 and that he would be changing his style. That change in approach was evident on Opening Day, as Tanaka completely abandoned his four-seam fastball in favor of a two-seamer. 

There's obviously plenty of difference between the two pitches, the biggest of which is normally velocity. Effective two-seamers generate swings-and-misses via movement one way or the other, while a customary four-seamer is generally flatter, but harder. 

Tanaka threw five four-seam fastballs and 22 two-seam fastballs against the Blue Jays. While he wasn't maxing out in the mid-90s like he was a year ago, both of Tanaka's heaters averaged higher speeds than in 2014.

In other words, Tanaka hasn't lost any velocity. He's just choosing to alter his repertoire and approach on the mound. 

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports doesn't necessarily agree with that new approach. While Tanaka's velocity doesn't concern him, his ability to locate his fastball does:

"

Here's what to watch this season: Tanaka's fastball command within the strike zone. The Blue Jays are a good-hitting team and have a chance to lead baseball in home runs. That lineup will make you pay if you miss with your fastball, and Tanaka did miss a few times yesterday.

"

Nitkowski goes on to say the command of both his fastballs will be "key to Tanaka's success in 2015."

The Verdict: Fiction

Worried about his health? Yes. Worried about his fastball command? Sure. 

But Tanaka's lack of velocity is a strategic decision. He's hoping to protect his elbow by throwing less stressful pitches, hence the significant uptick in two-seam heaters against the Blue Jays. 

In 2015, Tanaka's command will be much more important than his velocity. Don't get blinded by the radar gun.

The San Diego Padres Are the Best Team in the NL West

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The San Diego Padres are fun again. 

Thanks to the wheeling and dealing of new general manager A.J. Preller, the Padres have playoff aspirations in 2015. Preller made a bevy of offseason moves, acquiring the likes of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks. 

But Preller wasn't finished, as the cherry on top was the trade for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. With a complete overhaul, the San Diego roster stacks up well against any other team in the NL West.

Despite the excitement, San Diego's lineup still has some issues that could cost it a division crown. 

The Padres lineup ranked dead last in runs scored in 2014. That should change this season with the additions of Kemp, Upton and Myers. That lineup, however, is quite prone to the strikeout. Here are their career strikeout rates:

• Yangervis Solarte - 10.8 percent
• Wil Myers - 24.7 percent
• Matt Kemp - 23.7 percent
• Justin Upton - 23.8 percent
• Yonder Alonso - 15.3 percent
• Jedd Gyorko - 23 percent
• Derek Norris - 22.7 percent
• Alexi Amarista - 14.4 percent

Five of San Diego's 8 projected starters strike out over 20 percent of the time. That's an alarming number, one that could make the Padres offense struggle against some of the power pitching in the division. 

The Verdict: Fiction

Padres fans have reason to be excited about the upcoming season. Their club boasts a solid rotation, electric bullpen and offensive firepower. 

But if (when) the strikeouts start to mount, will San Diego still be able to score runs? That's doubtful.

David Price Will Sign a $200 Million Contract in Free Agency

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David Price is about to get paid. Maybe more than any pitcher ever has in the history of the game.

Clayton Kershaw holds that record, as the southpaw signed a $214 million contract in 2014. While Price may not be as good as his fellow left-hander, he's clearly one of the top five pitchers in the game.

Price is coming off his fifth straight season with a sub-3.50 ERA in 2014. He also recorded the highest strikeout percentage of his career, while walking under 4 percent of the batters he faced. That K-to-BB percentage ranked third in all of baseball. 

At 29, Price is in the midst of his golden years. 2014 was the best season of his career, and if Opening Day is any indication, he's ready to improve those numbers again this year. Price came just one out shy of a shutout, allowing only five hits to the Minnesota Twins. 

The Tigers are in a conundrum, as Price's continued dominance is key to their World Series hopes, but will also likely push his price tag out of Detroit's reach. Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press mentions that irony in a recent column:

"

But it starts with Price. You need a workhorse taking the ball every fifth day. If Price delivers a Cy Young-worthy season, the Tigers will like their chances at winning a fifth straight American League Central title. Even if that means Price will merit a $200 million free agent contract and leave Detroit same as Max Scherzer did following last season.

"

One thing remains true: Price is headed toward a lucrative contract either with the Tigers or another organization this offseason. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is anticipating a contract of at least $200 million, and it could wind up being more than that if Price betters his career numbers again in 2015. 

The Verdict: Fact

Price will command a Max Scherzer-type of deal this offseason, and he could approach Kershaw's contract before it's all said and done.

He's worth the price tag (Pun!). Price has been an elite arm for years now, and he'll easily clear the $200 million threshold barring injury this season. 

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.