Odds of All 30 MLB Teams Reaching the 2015 Postseason
The 2015 MLB season is finally in full swing, but it's never too late to make some long-term predictions about how the season could shake out.
Things rarely play out as expected over 162 games, and that's one of the things that makes baseball so great, but here in the early going, we can get a decent idea of what the postseason picture might look like come October.
So with that in mind, what follows is a look at each team's odds of making the playoffs for the upcoming season.
The overall outlook of each team obviously trumps anything it may have accomplished during spring training or in the handful of regular-season games that have been played to this point, as we're looking at the big picture.
Provided along with each team's odds is a look at what that translates to in terms of a percent chance of reaching the postseason. Those percentages add up to 500 percent for each league, as five playoff spots are up for grabs.
AL East
1 of 6
Postseason Odds
| Boston Red Sox | 2/3 | 60% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3/2 | 40% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 3/2 | 40% |
| New York Yankees | 4/1 | 20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 18/1 | 5.26% |
Division Overview
The Baltimore Orioles ran away with the AL East title last season, finishing with a 12-game lead over the second-placed New York Yankees. This time around, things figure to be significantly closer at the top.
Despite losing more talent than they added, the Orioles should still be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Healthy seasons from Manny Machado and Matt Wieters and some sort of rebound from Chris Davis would go a long way offensively, while the pitching staff is deep albeit short on front-line talent.
Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays both made significant additions in the offseason, and on paper, they both have more overall talent than the Orioles.
While they could wind up ranked first and second in overall offense, both teams have significant questions as to whether their starting rotations will be good enough to carry them to the postseason.
However, if rookies Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris can pitch to their potential for the Blue Jays, and if the one-two punch of Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello can shoulder the load for the Red Sox, both staffs could be better than expected.
The New York Yankees have enough talent that they can't be overlooked, especially after winning 84 games last season despite myriad injuries. It's hard to see them avoiding the injury bug for a full season, though, especially in their shaky rotation.
"With great health, the Yankees will contend this summer. In the real world where things inevitably go wrong, they're likely to be on the outside of the postseason looking in again in 2015," wrote Mike Axisa of CBS Sports.
At the bottom are the Tampa Bay Rays. They could have one of the best pitching staffs in the AL once everyone gets healthy, but who in that lineup is going to consistently produce outside of Evan Longoria?
AL Central
2 of 6
Postseason Odds
| Detroit Tigers | 1/1 | 50% |
| Cleveland Indians | 1/1 | 50% |
| Chicago White Sox | 3/1 | 25% |
| Kansas City Royals | 4/1 | 20% |
| Minnesota Twins | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Division Overview
The Detroit Tigers are working on a run of four straight AL Central titles, but they won the division by just one game over the Kansas City Royals last year. This time around, things could be even more cluttered at the top.
This is not the same Tigers team we've seen the past few years, as the departures of Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have left their starting rotation as a legitimate question mark for the first time in recent memory.
However, their defense should be improved with the return of Jose Iglesias and the addition of Anthony Gose. The offense will also be stacked once again and could be even better with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes alongside Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez in the middle of the lineup.
The Cleveland Indians have been a trendy pick to come out of the American League this offseason, and they certainly have the talent to make a serious run. Their pitching has as high a ceiling as any staff in the AL, while the offense should benefit greatly from a healthy Jason Kipnis and another year of emerging stars Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes.
No one in the AL added more talent than the Chicago White Sox, but they still have some questions to answer, specifically at the back end of their rotation as they wait on top prospect Carlos Rodon. An improved bullpen alone should be enough to make them competitive, though, after their relief core tallied 32 losses and 21 blown saves with a 4.38 ERA last year.
The Kansas City Royals were surprise AL pennant winners last season on the strength of their defense, base-stealing and a dominant bullpen. Those will all be strengths once again, but can they get on the same roll that carried them to the playoffs a year ago?
The Minnesota Twins figure to be in the cellar once again. They've had the league's worst starting pitching over the past two seasons, and the 80-game PED suspension handed to offseason addition Ervin Santana has left their staff looking like a clear weakness once again.
AL West
3 of 6
Postseason Odds
| Seattle Mariners | 1/4 | 80% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1/3 | 75% |
| Oakland Athletics | 3/1 | 25% |
| Texas Rangers | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Houston Astros | 22/1 | 4.35% |
Division Overview
The Los Angeles Angels led baseball with 98 victories last season, winning the AL West title by 10 games over the Oakland Athletics after the A's finished the season in a 10-20 tailspin.
Those teams should both be strong once again, but it's the Seattle Mariners that enter the season as the favorites in many circles despite the fact they have not reached the postseason since 2001.
The addition of Nelson Cruz should give the offense a big boost, but it's the pitching staff that would make them dangerous come October. Young arms Taijuan Walker and James Paxton both look poised for breakout seasons, Felix Hernandez is a truly elite arm, and the bullpen should again be one of the best around.
Don't expect the Angels to simply go away, though, as their offense should again be great and their rotation has a chance to be solid as well once Garrett Richards returns from knee surgery.
The Athletics underwent a drastic offseason overhaul, opening the year with 11 newcomers and five rookies on the roster. Until we get a better idea of how all of those moving parts fit together, it's hard to put them alongside the Mariners and Angels as division contenders, but there is definitely some talent on the roster.
Matt Snyder of CBS Sports offered up his thoughts on the new-look roster at the beginning of March:
"The A's definitely don't seem as good as they were last year, which isn't such a bold statement considering what they lost in the offseason. Then again, we've seen them surprise before and there are enough pieces here to compete. Many believe they will contend and that's not a stretch, but I feel like mid-70s to low-80s in wins is more realistic with this group. Never, ever count them out, though.
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At the bottom we have a Houston Astros team that's on the rise but still looks to be a year or two away, and a Texas Rangers team that was dealt a significant blow in the preseason when it lost ace Yu Darvish for the year to Tommy John surgery and could be in for another tough season.
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NL East
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Postseason Odds
| Washington Nationals | 1/5 | 83.33% |
| Miami Marlins | 1/1 | 50% |
| New York Mets | 3/2 | 40% |
| Atlanta Braves | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1,000/1 | 0.1% |
Division Overview
Anything can happen over the course of the long MLB season. That makes it hard to give even the best teams more than a 75- to 80-percent chance of reaching the playoffs at this point, and the Washington Nationals have the best odds here at 1/5 (or an 83.33 percent chance).
They enter the season a bit banged up on offense with Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Denard Span all sidelined, but they should all return at some point during the first half of the season. Werth could return Monday, per Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
Anyway, it's their juggernaut of a starting rotation that has made them the prohibitive favorites entering the season. They won the division by 17 games last season, and with the addition of Max Scherzer, they could run away with the NL East title again.
Behind them figures to be a battle for second place between an improved Miami Marlins team and the pitching-heavy New York Mets.
The Marlins were in contention into the second half of last season before eventually falling off down the stretch, but an improved offense around Giancarlo Stanton coupled with the eventual return of Jose Fernandez could put them squarely in the NL wild-card hunt.
The Mets are a bit more of a question mark, and while they have terrific pitching depth, losing Zack Wheeler still hurts. The offense will need a healthy season from Michael Cuddyer, a rebound from David Wright and a duplicate performance from Lucas Duda if they're going to have a real shot.
More than a few people have looked at the Atlanta Braves as a team that could surprise despite selling off several key pieces in the offseason, pointing to the young trio of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller as a strength.
Those three won't do anything to boost what will likely be one of the worst offenses in the league, however, despite what their 12-run outburst on Tuesday might suggest. The bullpen could also be a weakness after so many pieces, Craig Kimbrel in particular, were shipped out.
It will be nothing short of astonishing if the Philadelphia Phillies manage to lose fewer than 100 games, and they're a lock to finish in the cellar.
NL Central
5 of 6
Postseason Odds
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1/3 | 75% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2/3 | 60% |
| Chicago Cubs | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 9/1 | 10% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 15/1 | 6.25% |
Division Overview
Call it Midwest bias, but the NL Central looks like the deepest division in baseball top to bottom heading into the 2015 season.
The St. Louis Cardinals have reached the postseason an impressive 11 times over the past 15 years, and they look to be in a great position to return there once again this season.
The addition of Jason Heyward is an obvious upgrade in right field, while a healthy season from Michael Wacha could make a huge difference in the rotation.
Then there is the offense, which was inexplicably among the worst in baseball for much of last season, but finally hit its stride down the stretch. More consistency from a lineup that has no glaring holes could go a long way in helping them maintain division supremacy.
After a 20-year drought, the Pittsburgh Pirates have reached the playoffs in consecutive years, and with a young core, they figure to be perennial contenders for the foreseeable future. Keep an eye on Starling Marte, who absolutely raked during the second half last season and looks like a superstar in the making.
There is no shortage of hype surrounding this year's Chicago Cubs, and understandably so after the offseason additions of manager Joe Maddon, ace Jon Lester and a handful of other key pieces such as Miguel Montero and Jason Hammel.
If all the pieces fall into place, it could be a season to remember on the North Side. However, it would be wise to expect some growing pains out of their young roster. The best may be yet to come.
The Cincinnati Reds were bit hard by the injury bug last season on the offensive side of things, and their starting rotation took a hit this offseason with the trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.
However, if the trio of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips can come back strong and their young arms can pull their weight, they could surprise some people and again contend.
At the bottom are the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that led the NL Central for 150 days last year only to suffer a late-season collapse and miss the playoffs altogether.
There is talent on the roster, but the Brewers were a .500 team for most of last season after a hot start, and that's probably closer to where they will wind up in 2015.
NL West
6 of 6
Postseason Odds
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1/3 | 75% |
| San Diego Padres | 1/1 | 50% |
| San Francisco Giants | 4/1 | 20% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 250/1 | 0.4% |
| Colorado Rockies | 250/1 | 0.4% |
Division Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won consecutive NL West titles, but it's a different looking team donning the blue and white in 2015 after new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman's busy offseason.
Gone are Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon and a good portion of a bullpen that proved to be a major weakness when October rolled around.
Newcomers Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins and rookie Joc Pederson will be asked to bolster the offense, while a retooled back of the rotation and relief corps has the team looking like NL West favorites once again.
Don't count out the San Diego Padres, though, as new general manager A.J. Preller has been a man on a mission since taking control of the team.
Justin Upton, Kemp, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks were all acquired this offseason, and the team is reportedly still shopping around for an offensive upgrade at shortstop, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
The Padres have the pitching and offense to be serious contenders, but their defense is now a question mark, and it could take some time for them to jell as a team. Still, they should at least be a threat for a wild-card spot.
The San Francisco Giants consistently find a way to outperform what their on-paper talent suggests, so it's hard to bet against them. However, they look to have their work cut out for them to defend their third title in five years.
The starting rotation behind Madison Bumgarner was pointed to all offseason as a serious cause for concern, and in the first week of the season, Matt Cain is on the disabled list and Jake Peavy missed a start with back tightness. Concerning to say the least.
With Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa now calling the shots for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the franchise is heading in the right direction, but they don't have the pitching to contend.
The same goes for the Colorado Rockies. They'll pile up the runs and should be fun to watch if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy alongside budding star Nolan Arenado. The arms just aren't there to be a serious threat, though.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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