Fact or Fiction on 2015 MLB Opening Day Instant Overreactions
No other sport's first full slate of games can match Major League Baseball in the instant-overreaction department.
Fans and folks in and around the game love to alternatively extrapolate on performances ("After his two-steal effort, Jose Iglesias is now on pace for 324 steals") as well as read far too much into what it all means after but one of 162 games.
That's why we're here now: to call attention to those immediate overreactions, and then—via a little Fact or Fiction—determine whether there's any merit to the mayhem. After all, there are only 161 games to go now.
Jon Lester Is a $155 Million Bust
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Well, that wasn't the Jon Lester the Chicago Cubs paid $155 million for, huh?
With all of the baseball-watching world paying close attention on Sunday night as the much-hyped Cubs hosted the defending NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field, Lester was all over the place in his Opening Night start.
Sure, he notched six strikeouts in 4.1 frames, but he also surrendered three runs on eight hits and a pair of walks—and it could have been a lot worse had reliever Phil Coke not bailed him out of a second-and-third-with-one-out situation in the fifth.
For the record, Lester registered a game score of 39; he had just three turns worse than that in his 32 regular-season starts last year with the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics.
"Lot of balls up in the zone," said Lester , who battled through a dead arm period during the second half of spring training, in his postgame press conference. "Just wasn't real sharp."
Lester looked about as bad as possible given that the final score was rather close at 3-0 in favor of the Cardinals.
Verdict: Fiction, because it's only one start, and Lester didn't even have a normal camp.
The Boston Red Sox Don't Need an Ace
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So much of the evaluation of the Boston Red Sox over the past several months has been that the club needs an ace to front a rotation full of No. 3- or No. 4-type starters.
But with Clay Buchholz looking entirely like a front-end arm and not at all like the enigmatic, inconsistent question mark he has been for the past few years, maybe that isn't such a great need after all. Buchholz hurled seven scoreless innings in which he allowed just four baserunners and struck out nine to earn the win in Boston's 8-0 victory on Monday.
Besides, thanks to what should be a dynamic offense that saw mighty mite Dustin Pedroia and prodigal son Hanley Ramirez each homer twice and star-in-the-making Mookie Betts once, maybe the Red Sox simply can bludgeon opponents into submission. That's pretty much what they did to Cole Hamels, the very pitcher the Sox have been linked to in off-and-on trade rumors over the past four months, as NESN.com's Ricky Doyle noted.
Verdict: Fiction, because no matter how great the offense is or how solid the staff is, Boston is going to need a legitimate No. 1 if they're going to win in the postseason. And besides, any pitcher can shut down the Philadelphia Phillies.
This Is the Year Bryce Harper Breaks Out
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Having cracked two homers back in 2013's first game, Bryce Harper's smash against Bartolo Colon of the New York Mets on Monday became the 22-year-old's third Opening Day bomb in his still-young career.
While critics can claim "been there, done-that and still no breakout" for Harper, he also had a promising performance in spring training, leading all hitters with 15 walks (in only 60 plate appearances). If Harper is going to carry over that kind of plate discipline into the games that count, look out.
Plus, the Washington Nationals need Harper to be hot early in the season while other top hitters like Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Denard Span are on the shelf.
Verdict: Fact, as Harper's biggest obstacle in his three MLB seasons so far has been health. As long as he's playing, he's primed to take the next step.
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The Tigers Offense Is Going to Be Scary
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Although the Detroit Tigers scored only four runs in beating the Minnesota Twins, 4-0, in their first game, they did so by getting next to nothing out of the two biggest bats in the lineup, as Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez combined for just one hit in eight at-bats.
Instead, the Tigers picked up homers from J.D. Martinez—whose second-inning solo shot off Phil Hughes was the first by any hitter in the 2015 season—and Alex Avila, who hit a two-run job three batters later.
Meanwhile, newcomer Yoenis Cespedes smashed a double and a triple—out of the sixth spot in the order, mind you—and even No. 9 hitter (and forgotten man) Jose Iglesias went 2-for-3 with a pair of stolen bases (as referenced in the intro).
Verdict: Fact, because jeez, we didn't even get a chance to mention the always productive Ian Kinsler or breakout candidate Nick Castellanos.
Masahiro Tanaka Can't Be His 2014 Self Without His Fastball
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The New York Yankees have to be hoping that the similar circumstances between their 2014 Opening Day Starter and their 2015 Opening Day starter end with the first game of the year.
Last April, there were all sorts of questions about CC Sabathia's health and performance heading into the season, and much of the focus was on the big left-hander's declining velocity coming off a poor 2013.
This April, almost the exact same thing can be said about Masahiro Tanaka, who finished out an otherwise superb rookie season with a few less-than-good starts after missing two-plus months due to a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow that he and the club chose to rehab rather than repair.
And so while Sabathia made it through only eight starts—with a ghastly 5.28 ERA—before missing the rest of the year, the concern is that Tanaka may well suffer a similar fate.
The 26-year-old Japanese right-hander did strike out six batters, but he was undone Monday by a hellish third inning in which he threw 25 pitches and gave up all five of his runs, two of which came on a homer by Edwin Encarnacion. Tanaka only made it through four innings against the Toronto Blue Jays and required 82 pitches to do so.
His new approach, centered around throwing fewer high-velocity four-seamers and more moving two-seamers—perhaps to protect his elbow?—came with a poor bottom line and leaves open the question of whether his arm will hold up, as Bob Klapisch of The Bergen County Record wrote.
"Having all but abandoned his four-seam fastball this spring, Tanaka sat mostly at 90-91 mph and maxed out at 93 mph," as Hoch and Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com wrote after Monday's outing. "Encarnacion's homer was hit off a 90-mph two-seamer."
Tanaka's splitter still looks like a put-away pitch, and his slider showed good movement, but the heater is what sets up everything else. Neither his velocity nor his pinpoint command from last year were evident his first time out.
Tanaka now has given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five outings dating back to July of last season, which is when he was diagnosed with the injury. By comparison, he began 2014 by not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his first 16 starts.
Verdict: Fact, as Tanaka still might be effective as long as his elbow holds up, but without the extra few ticks on his fastball, he's going to have less margin for error and more trouble dominating like he did in the first half of his rookie season.
David Price and Johnny Cueto Are Going to Cash In Soon
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Opening Day was good to both David Price and Johnny Cueto, the respective aces of the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds.
On one hand, their performances spoke for themselves, as the lefty Price nearly threw a complete-game shutout (8.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5.00 K/BB), while the right-hander Cueto picked up right where he left off last year in twirling seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts.
On the other hand, the two soon-to-be free agents also must have enjoyed seeing Rick Porcello score a four-year, $82.5 million contract extension, as Alex Speier of the The Boston Globe reported.
That's good news for Price and Cueto not only because they are true aces compared to Porcello—a solid pitcher, but no more than a mid-rotation arm to this point in his career—but also because there's now one fewer big-name starter set to become a free agent after this season.
In other words: less supply, more demand.
Verdict: Fact, as it's now even more likely that Price and Cueto hit the open market, where they will be looking at $170 million—at an absolute minimum.
Statistics are accurate through Monday, April 6, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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