NCAA Tournament 2015: Odds Guide, Projections for Duke vs. Wisconsin

Just as everyone predicted, the Frank and Sam show next encounters a freshman-laden team for college basketball's grandest prize to conclude March Madness.

Before the bracket, folks knew the Wisconsin Badgers were good. But they hailed from the icky Big Ten of all places, and the plodding style of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker wouldn't be enough against teams capable of matching them blow-for-blow in the paint, right?

Folks frowned upon the Duke Blue Devils before the Big Dance after no regular-season or tournament dominance in the ACC. Jahlil Okafor and other impressionable freshmen were bound to collapse, right?

The above failed narratives are why it's so important to dive deep into each matchup before laying down coin on offerings from Las Vegas.

The end is nigh, so go forth armed to the teeth with information.

NCAA Championship Game

Date	Matchup (Odds)	Pick
April 6 at 9:18 p.m. ET	Duke vs. Wisconsin (- 1)	Duke

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of April 6.

Odds Guide and Projections 

As it should be, the title game features contrasting styles perfect for a war of wills.

Wisconsin loves to slow things down and squeeze the absolute most out of every possession. It's why Bo Ryan's team was able to overcome undefeated Kentucky in the Final Four, averaging 1.22 points per possession, per ESPN Stats & Info.

How?

Kaminsky shot 7-of-11 from the floor with 20 points and 11 boards. Dekker shot 6-of-9 with 16 points. Somehow, someway, the Badgers even won the battle on the glass, 34-22.

As efficiency ratings at KenPom.com showcase, no team is better than Wisconsin when it comes to maximizing each trip down the court.

Team	ADJ OFF	ADJ DEF
Duke	3	18
Wisconsin	1	54

If the Blue Devils were going to lose, it figured to be the defensive Michigan State Spartans to do the deed. Instead, Okafor and others shot 52 percent from the floor, won the battle on the glass and took home a 20-point victory.

Okafor also shot 7-of-11, totaling 18 points. Freshman Justise Winslow missed two shots from the field while scoring a team-high 19, and senior Quinn Cook poured in 17.

Still, Las Vegas seems to favor the Badgers by just a hair. It makes sense, too. Kaminsky may be the nation's top player, but Dekker's emergence puts them over the top.

Dekker averages 13.9 points, but in the tournament, the number has bumped to 20.1. As ESPN Stats & Info notes, he's also shooting much better from deep:

This is what drives opponents nuts when encountering the Badgers—Kaminsky and Dekker can leave the paint at any moment and knock down shots, leaving guards free to infiltrate and facilitate.

The problem is, this isn't the first dance for these two. Back in December, the Blue Devils took it to the Badgers on their home turf by 10 points. There, Duke shot a lights-out 65.2 percent from the floor and held Dekker to just five points. Okafor and Co. also managed to win the battle on the glass.

Now, one can argue these two teams are quite different this time around. Perhaps. As noted, Dekker continues to play out of his mind, but in the same vein, Winslow is just as impressive of an improvement since (he only scored five against Wisconsin).

Hence why Okafor makes it clear the matchup isn't just about two players.

"I know everyone is trying to make it me versus Frank, but it's my team versus his team," Okafor said, per USA Today's Dan Wolken. "It's going to be a hell of a game."

Okafor only played 27 minutes in the first encounter and shot 6-of-8 from the floor. His efforts, in tandem with others, limited Kaminsky to 5-of-12. There won't be any holding back from the Blue Devils this time, and while Kaminsky is a great player, he isn't a solitary force who can win games on his own.

With Winslow-Dekker seemingly a draw, the game may come down to guard play. If so, Duke holds a distinct advantage thanks to Cook and freshman Tyus Jones, who torched the Badgers for 22 points and boasts a pair of 15-point outbursts in the tournament.

In fact, Jones is the X-factor to watch. He's averaging 5.4 assists in the tournament. The Blue Devils have lost just twice this year when he has three or more assists in a game.

Look for Duke to get out and run with Jones as the orchestrator, like December's encounter. Wisconsin might start a bit flat after throwing everything into upending Kentucky, which will force the Badgers out of their comfort zone.

Prediction: Duke 76, Wisconsin 73 

Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.