All 30 MLB Teams' Biggest X-Factor as 2015 Season Gets Underway
From the cooperation of Masahiro Tanaka's right elbow to the rise of Mookie Betts, every team has an X-factor.
They are those impossible-to-predict but ridiculously important variables that will play a monster role in determining how the 2015 MLB season will shake out. The New York Yankees are far from the only squad with a serious injury concern that could make or break the campaign.
Aside from health problems, there's another theme that pops up again and again in the process of compiling the list of each club's biggest X-factor. From the Boston Red Sox to the Seattle Mariners to the Pittsburgh Pirates, there is a slew of playoff hopefuls who will be counting on young and promising players to step up in a major way this season.
Houston Astros
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Potential Rise of Yet Another Unheralded Starter
One of the most encouraging aspects of the 2014 season for the Houston Astros was the unexpected emergence of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh.
This year, Asher Wojciechowski has the ability to follow a similar path. The right-hander pitched his way into the starting five by reeling off a 1.29 ERA in six Grapefruit League outings. It was an impressive spring for the 26-year-old, but for now he's completely unproven at the big league level. His first start in 2015 will also be his first ever outing in the majors. Last season, Wojciechowski posted a 4.74 ERA in 15 Triple-A outings.
Los Angeles Angels
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The Biggest X-Factor: A Return to Form for C.J. Wilson
The numbers were ugly for C.J. Wilson in 2014.
That was especially true in the second half of the season, as the lefty racked up a 4.85 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break. The Los Angeles Angels can't afford to have Wilson repeat that showing in 2015 considering that the veteran will make $18 million.
During the spring, Wilson's results were much improved. In three Cactus League starts, the 34-year-old put up a 2.31 ERA. His manager Mike Scioscia believes that Wilson is back on track, explaining to Austin Laymance of MLB.com: "I look for a big year from C.J."
Oakland Athletics
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Success of the Team's Unheralded Starters
Outside of Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir, the Oakland Athletics' rotation isn't exactly stocked with household names.
As the season opens up, the final three starters will be Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman and Drew Pomeranz. Those three pitchers combined to make just 22 starts in 2014. While they're lacking experience, they aren't lacking upside. Out of the trio, Hahn had the highest spring ERA, posting a mark of 3.06.
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Seattle Mariners
4 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: The Progression of Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker was flat-out nasty this spring.
In seven starts, the 22-year-old limited the opposition to a .114 average while posting a 0.67 ERA. Walker punched out 26 batters and allowed just 10 hits in 27 innings of work. The way he shredded the competition over the past month, it looks like Walker is finally ready to live up to the hype that led the Seattle Mariners to select him in the first round of the 2010 MLB draft.
With the likes of Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma already atop the rotation, the M's group of starters is looking extremely dangerous.
Texas Rangers
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The Biggest X-Factor: Healthy Campaigns from Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder
With Yu Darvish already out for the season, the Texas Rangers are facing an uphill battle in the American League West.
If the Rangers are going to have any chance of making any noise in the division, the team needs Choo and Fielder to stay way healthier in 2015. Last season, the vets combined to miss nearly an entire season's worth of games (159).
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: How Quickly Carlos Rodon Pitches His Way to the Majors
The odds were always against Carlos Rodon in his bid to crack the Chicago White Sox's Opening Day roster. After all, the lefty was only drafted last June and has pitched just 12 innings in Triple-A.
The super prospect certainly made his mark in his first spring camp with the White Sox. The starter posted a 3.06 ERA in six appearances and totaled 21 strikeouts in 17.2 innings of work. His first stop in 2015 will be the minor leagues, but Rodon has already shown that he's extremely close to becoming a significant contributor for Chicago.
Cleveland Indians
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The Biggest X-Factor: Another Big Season from Carlos Carrasco
The winner of the AL Cy Young Award a season ago, Corey Kluber absolutely broke out in 2014. Carlos Carrasco wasn't far behind. The right-hander was electric in the second half of the campaign, posting a 1.72 ERA in his final 17 outings.
The Cleveland Indians appear to be banking on Carrasco pitching at a comparable level in 2015. According to Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, the Tribe dished out a four-year extension worth $22 million to Carrasco.
Detroit Tigers
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The Biggest X-Factor: Whether Justin Verlander Can Get Back on Track
With Max Scherzer now headlining the Washington Nationals' rotation, the Detroit Tigers really need Justin Verlander to bounce back in 2015.
Last year, the right-hander was awful, as he posted a 4.54 ERA for the AL Central champs. His 2015 hasn't started in the most auspicious fashion, either.
During the spring, Verlander has been dealing with a right triceps strain. According to Jason Beck of MLB.com, the Tigers aren't planning to place Verlander on the disabled list and have him slated to take the mound on April 12. Considering how important the six-time All-Star will be to Detroit's plans in 2015, the club will have to be extremely cautious with his return.
Kansas City Royals
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The Biggest X-Factor: Bounce-Back Seasons from the Squad's Buy-Low Vets
Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios aren't just the Kansas City Royals' two most prominent offensive additions; the veterans are also both attempting to rebound from seriously underwhelming seasons in 2014.
Morales split the campaign between the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners and posted a .218 average in 98 games. Meanwhile, Rios' power all but vanished as he dealt with a thumb injury. In 131 contests for the Texas Rangers, the outfielder went yard just four times. With those two set to make a combined $20 million in 2015, the Royals will be expecting much more production this season.
Minnesota Twins
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The Biggest X-Factor: Finding a Way to Replace Ervin Santana
It's no secret why the Minnesota Twins landed in the cellar in 2014. The AL Central team's starting staff just couldn't stop giving up runs. The group checked in with a 5.06 ERA, which was the worst mark in baseball.
The club appeared to have taken in least one step in the right direction by inking Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million deal in the offseason. As it turns out, the vet will be a non-factor in the first half. Per LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, MLB has slammed Santana with an 80-game ban for testing positive for the steroid Stanozolol.
In Santana's absence somebody is going to have to step up.
One pitcher who has the potential to do that is Tommy Milone. The Twins added Milone in a swap with the Oakland Athletics last summer, and his resume suggests he could provide quality innings for Minnesota. The lefty's best season came back in 2012 when he posted a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts for Oakland.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Return of Manny Machado
Manny Machado is finally back.
After two knee surgeries in as many seasons, the third baseman is fully healthy. During the Grapefruit League schedule, Machado appeared in 20 games for the Baltimore Orioles. As Machado explained via Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, he's ready to help the squad repeat as division winners.
"At the end of the day, we're the AL East champs. They're going to have to take it away from us," Machado said. "We're the only team that can control that. We may not have the best team on paper, but we're going to go grind out on that field."
With the ability to cover all sorts of area at third and to be a game-changer at the plate, the 22-year-old has the skill set to help the O's repeat in the East.
Boston Red Sox
12 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: The Emergence of Mookie Betts
It's rarely wise to rely too heavily on a 22-year-old who has just 52 games of big league experience. For Mookie Betts, an exception can be made.
The Boston Red Sox's new center fielder and table-setter has the potential to be downright dynamic. Betts flies around the outfield, is a menace on the basepaths and does damage at the plate. During the spring, the right-handed hitter torched the Grapefruit League to the tune of a .429 average while collecting 12 extra-base hits in 19 games.
His teammate Dustin Pedroia summed Betts up perfectly, via Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal: "The ability is through the roof.”
New York Yankees
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Health of Masahiro Tanaka's Right Elbow
Masahiro Tanaka is the owner of the most scrutinized right elbow in baseball.
That's because the Japanese starter will be pitching the 2015 season with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. As Tanaka explained to Dan Martin of the New York Post via an interpreter, his elbow could have an effect on his ability to light up the radar gun: “I’m trying to establish a certain pitching style for me this year, so maybe it’s not the wisest to ask for velocity from me this year. I think it will be a little bit, as far as miles per hour go, lower than last year.”
That's not a terribly encouraging assessment for a New York Yankees club that will be in a major bind if Tanaka's elbow fails to cooperate. The right-hander didn't ease any nerves by yielding five runs (four earned) in four innings of work in his first start of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 6.
Tampa Bay Rays
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The Biggest X-Factor: How Skillfully Kevin Cash Adapts to His New Job
Tasked with replacing managerial wizard Joe Maddon, the bar is set high for Kevin Cash—really high.
The Tampa Bay Ray' new 37-year-old skipper has already been dealt a tricky deck in the early going of 2015. As the Rays embark upon the season, the club will be without 60 percent of its projected rotation, as Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Alex Colome are all on the shelf. That's far from an ideal situation for a manager who's not only a rookie at the major league level, but who had never managed at any level before the start of the spring.
Toronto Blue Jays
15 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: The Inexperienced Bullpen
There's a lot to like about the Toronto Blue Jays.
Thanks to the offseason additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, the Blue Jays have a lineup that should be stupid good in 2015. The AL East team also has tremendous upside in its rotation even with Marcus Stroman sidelined for the season as he heals from a torn ACL.
The big question mark for the Blue Jays is the pen.
As Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun notes, the relief corps is seriously lacking in experience. In terms of major league appearances, the group ranks No. 29 in baseball. Rookies Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have combined to throw exactly zero MLB innings, but they are certainly names to remember. During the spring, the right-handers checked in with identical 2.19 ERAs while pitching 12.1 innings across nine outings.
Arizona Diamondbacks
16 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: How Yasmany Tomas Responds to Opening The Season in the Minor Leagues
Inked to a six-year, $68.5 million deal in the offseason, Yasmany Tomas was supposed to be a key cog in the middle of the lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Instead, the 24-year-old Cuban will begin the season patrolling right field for the organization's Triple-A affiliate, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com.
A stint in the minors isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world for the right-handed hitter. Playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League represents the perfect opportunity for Tomas to get his swing on track and set himself up to make a splash in the desert this summer.
Colorado Rockies
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The Biggest X-Factor: Keeping Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez Healthy
It's always a bad idea to count a team out a the beginning of April. Still, on paper, the Colorado Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball.
If the club is going to somehow shatter its lowly expectations, keeping Tulowitzki and Gonzalez healthy and in the lineup is an absolute must. Then again, keeping those two off the DL is a must even if the Rockies do tumble out of the race early on. If Colorado goes in the tank in the opening months of the season, the shortstop and the right-fielder will start generating tons of buzz on the trade block.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Bullpen
The Los Angeles Dodgers have some very real concerns entering the season.
Starter Hyun-Jin Ryu will begin the year on the DL as he works his way back from a shoulder injury, and then there's that pesky bullpen.
Last season, the Dodgers' group of relievers was a mess, and the pen remains unsettled early in 2015. It doesn't help that closer Kenley Jansen is temporarily out of the frame as he recovers from a broken foot. Los Angeles will need some low-profile arms to set up, or else the inability to close out ballgames will do the Dodgers in again.
San Diego Padres
19 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: A Healthy Will Middlebrooks
The San Diego Padres have added a lot of thump to the lineup. See Matt Kemp and Justin Upton.
Another new Padre who also has the bat to help his new employer in the thump department, but who hasn't been generating nearly as many headlines is Will Middlebrooks. Injuries have wrecked each of his past two seasons, but the right-handed hitter was swinging big this spring. In Cactus League action, the 26-year-old hit .353. This year, San Diego will be hoping to see the 2012 version of Middlebrooks, who cracked 15 home runs in 75 games.
San Francisco Giants
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The Biggest X-Factor: Whether Matt Cain Can Pitch Like an Ace
The San Francisco Giants are paying Matt Cain like he's an ace. The right-handed starter is raking in a cool $21 million in 2015. Now, it's time for the three-time All-Star to live up to his end of the bargain.
Matt Cain hasn't been remotely ace-ish since 2012 when he posted a 2.79 ERA. Considering that the Giants rotation is riddled with question marks after Madison Bumgarner, a resurgent season from Cain, who had both elbow and ankle surgery in 2014, would be a major boost.
Chicago Cubs
21 of 30The Biggest X-Factor: The Play of Jorge Soler
For a 23-year-old with fire hose of a right arm, a violently powerful swing and an advanced approach at the plate, Jorge Soler sure has been cutting a low profile.
The Chicago Cubs have been the recipient of all sorts of hype in recent months, but not nearly enough has been directed at Soler. After collecting 14 extra-base hits (including five bombs) in a 24-game stint last summer, the Cuban is one of the leading candidates to snag the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 2015.
Cincinnati Reds
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Production pf Joey Votto
Courtesy of knee and quad injuries, Joey Votto went from in the discussion of best position player in baseball to a non-factor for the Cincinnati Reds in 2015. The left-handed hitter missed out on 100 games and totaled just six home runs.
If the Reds are going to do any damage in the supremely competitive NL Central, Votto has no choice but to return to the level that saw him earn four consecutive All-Star nods from 2010 to 2013.
Milwaukee Brewers
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Health of the Starting Rotation
With Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Wily Peralta atop the rotation, the Milwaukee Brewers have a strong 1-2-3 punch. Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson should be serviceable in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots, but after that, the Brewers are thin—really thin.
The lack of insurance options is primarily a result of the team's decision to ship out Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada in the offseason. An injury to one of the starting five will leave the Brewers in an unenviable spot.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Potential Rise of Gregory Polanco
There isn't an outfield with more talent in all of baseball than the trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco at PNC Park.
According to Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates think Marte can help the second-year right fielder Polanco unlock his prodigious talent.
As Ortiz explains, the outfielders worked out together over the winter in the Dominican Republic. Hitting coach Jeff Branson told Ortiz that Marte and Polanco are always hanging out at the park: "The friendship they have, they help each other out. It took Marte a couple of years to figure this out. Well, Polanco could be ahead of the game because of the experience Marte went through. Hopefully that process will get cut in half.''
The rest of the NL Central is going to be in trouble if the 23-year-old Polanco breaks out in 2015.
St. Louis Cardinals
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The Biggest X-Factor: How Quickly Carlos Martinez Adapts to the Rotation
Take one look at the roster. The St. Louis Cardinals are loaded. The bullpen has plenty of options, the lineup lacks any obvious weaknesses and the rotation is anchored by the likes of Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn.
One low-profile Cardinal who has the stuff to make a high-profile impact is Carlos Martinez.
For the first time in his major league career, the right-hander will be working out of the rotation. If his minor league track record is any indication, the 23-year-old should excel as a starter. During his five seasons on the farm, all but one of Martinez's appearances came as starts. Over the stretch, the Dominican was the owner of a 2.61 ERA.
Atlanta Braves
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The Biggest X-Factor: A Bounce-Back Season from Trevor Cahill
The way that the Atlanta Braves have been shedding contracts since the end of the 2014 season, it looks like the club is punting on first down. Simply put, the club's brain trust doesn't seem to be going out of its way to help the squad win games in 2015.
One vet who has arrived in Atlanta—instead of departing—is Trevor Cahill. The right-hander endured a nightmare season in 2014, but his former boss sees a bright future. According to Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com, Arizona Diamondbacks Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa said:"It wouldn't surprise me if he's the comeback player of the year."
Miami Marlins
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Level at Which Jose Fernandez Is Able to Contribute
Even with Jose Fernandez working his way back from Tommy John surgery, the Miami Marlins have a sneaky-good team. However, if the Fish are going to be a real threat in the wild-card race, Fernandez will have to contribute to the cause.
Per Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald, the 22-year-old could start facing hitters by the end of April and return to the bigs by the middle of June. That's not too far off. Still, the key question is just when he'll be able to return to his pre-injury level of excellence.
New York Mets
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Production of Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer
Make no mistake about it, the New York Mets have arms. The concern in Queens is whether the club has enough bats. Two players who need to help answer that question are Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer. Those veterans are both capable of lifting an offense that produced the fifth-worst OPS in 2014.
Out of Granderson and Cuddyer, the latter is the safer bet to provide a more consistent source of offense. Last season, the right-handed hitter batted .332 for the Colorado Rockies. The problem is that Cuddyer spent much of the season on the DL, appearing in just 49 games.
Philadelphia Phillies
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The Biggest X-Factor: Whether Ruben Amaro Jr. Can Orchestrate a Rebuild
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of those unfortunate teams that is going to need a miracle to be competitive.
A better way to measure success for the squad in 2015 isn't to count up the wins, but rather to make meaningful steps toward building toward the future. In other words, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. needs to oversee a fire sale.
It won't be easy to accomplish, as many of the club's veteran trade chips are weighted down by exorbitant contracts. However, Amaro needs to do whatever it takes to spin off the valuable parts and bring in talent for the future.
Washington Nationals
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The Biggest X-Factor: The Health of the Lineup
While everyone has been talking about the Washington Nationals' super rotation, it's been easy to miss that the lineup is already super dinged up.
The Nats opened up the season with Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Denard Span all on the DL. That's a ton of production to be missing out on. According to Bryon Kerr of MASN, Werth is likely to be the first Nat back in the mix. It's still awfully early in the season, but then again, it's never a good sign to be dealing with so many health problems at this juncture.
Who knows? Maybe Washington will put all of its health scares in the rearview mirror in a matter of weeks. It's also possible that the squad will have to eventually solidify its offense by trading away some its vaunted pitching talent.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Referenceand MLB.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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