Wisconsin Badgers vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Wisconsin Badgers will be trying to win their first NCAA tournament title since 1941 when they face the Duke Blue Devils for the national championship Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The Badgers won the West Region and upset the previously unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats 71-64 as 4.5-point underdogs in the national semifinals on Saturday, improving to 5-0 against the spread in their past five games versus No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils won the South Region and moved to 5-0 ATS in the tournament with an 81-61 blowout win over the Michigan State Spartans as 5.5-point favorites.

Opening spread

This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 140.5 (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread

Outside of covering tourney games against top seeds, Wisconsin has also thrived in the role of favorite throughout the season. In fact, the top-seeded Badgers were favored in every game this season until the Elite Eight against the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the West Region.

They are 19-1 straight up in their past 20 games as favorites but have a losing ATS record during that stretch at 9-10-1. However, Wisconsin has performed better as a favorite in the tournament, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six games.

The Badgers have also covered seven of their previous 10 games overall heading into the NCAA title game, peaking at the perfect time, much like last year when their run was stopped just short with a 74-73 loss to Kentucky as one-point dogs in the Final Four.

After that tough loss, National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky vowed to return rather than leaving school early for the NBA with the ultimate goal of winning the national championship.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke upset Wisconsin 80-70 earlier in the season as a 4.5-point road dog and has progressively gotten better in the tournament. The Blue Devils remained calm early on against the Spartans, trailing 14-6 less than five minutes into the game before going on a huge 29-9 run that gave them a double-digit lead they would not relinquish.

Defensively, nobody has played better than Duke in the Big Dance, limiting opponents to just 55 points per game. In the first meeting with the Badgers back on December 3, the Blue Devils held them to just 41 percent shooting while making a remarkable 65 percent of their own. Duke also out-rebounded Wisconsin 28-25, which could be the difference here again as well.

If the Blue Devils can hold the frontcourt trio of Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes to a combined 26 points and 15 rebounds, like they did the first time around, they will likely be cutting down the nets for the school’s fifth national title, including their third in Indy.

Smart betting pick

Some bettors might think Wisconsin could suffer from a letdown after that emotional victory against the Wildcats, but this squad has been focused on winning the national title since losing to them last year.

Kaminsky especially has been super motivated to bring home an NCAA championship to Madison, so look for him to try to get Jahlil Okafor and Amile Jefferson in early foul trouble and take over the game as he makes a run at Most Outstanding Player honors.

The Badgers will not be denied in Indy, so bet them to avenge their earlier loss with the biggest win of all.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 5

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six Final Four games, including the championship game.

Duke is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS during the NCAA tournament.

Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.

The under is 8-2 in Duke's last 10 games.

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark. Download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.