Must-Watch Potential Breakout Stars for the 2015 MLB Season
Major League Baseball has a way of providing its fans with brand new stars every year. 2015 should be no different, as there are handful of under-the-radar stars ready to break out over the course of the season.
Players like J.D. Martinez, Wade Davis and Jake Arrieta used impressive 2014 campaigns to announce themselves to the baseball world. While all three had shown flashes of talent before last season, a change of scenery or extended playing time gave them the platform to take the next step.
Plenty of major leaguers match that profile as the calendar turns to April.
Pitchers like Alex Wood and Drew Hutchison are hoping to build off productive seasons, while hitters such as Starling Marte and Christian Yelich will also try to take the next step at the dish.
So let's get to it!
Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
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Much has been made of the Baltimore Orioles' lack of a true No. 1 starter, but Kevin Gausman has the stuff to develop into a top-of-the-rotation hurler for years to come.
The former first-round pick started 20 games for the Orioles last season, posting a 3.57 ERA in those games. He really made his mark in the postseason, holding opposing hitters to a .160 average out of the bullpen.
While Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun has reported that Gausman is likely to start the season back in the pen, his talent should push him into the starting rotation to stay in 2015.
That talent includes an impressive heater. Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs had this to say regarding Gausman's fastball:
"His fastball is elite. He normally throws it around 94-95 mph, but can change speeds to launch it up to 97 mph. It sometime has some release side run which makes it about unhittable. For a 4-seam fastball, it gets a good number of ground balls (43 percent on the season) mainly because he pitches low in the zone.
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Gausman's biggest hurdle in his development is the control of his best pitch. He walked over three hitters per nine innings in 2014, which is on par with his minor league numbers. The ability to get ahead with his fastball will only enhance the effectiveness of his mediocre offspeed pitches and lead to more K's and fewer walks.
When you take into account what he did with spotty command last season, Gausman is just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.
Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Marte often gets overshadowed by his more famous Pittsburgh Pirates outfield-mate. But like Andrew McCutchen, Marte presents a rare blend of power and speed in today's game.
The 26-year-old has enjoyed a solid start to his major league career. But Marte had the look of a potential star at times last season, indicating he's ready to make the leap to stardom in 2015.
Marte posted his second straight season with a WAR greater than 4.0 in 2014. He hit 13 home runs and drove in 56 runs as well, both of which should see significant increases in the upcoming season. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he views Marte as a "run producer first," and that he could end up hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Marte is one of two major leaguers to post two straight 10-homer, 30-steal seasons over the past two years. With more chances to hit with runners in scoring position, his RBI total could easily approach triple-digits in 2015.
He does strike out over 24 percent of the time, but those numbers have remained steady over his career, and he's found a way to stay productive. When he does make contact, Marte is hitting the ball on the ground or on a line over 70 percent of the time. His .373 BABIP may seem high, but if his batted ball statistics continue in the same way, there's no reason to believe he can't replicate another high average on balls in play.
Marte is a good player, but he has all the tools to develop into a great one. With more offensive responsibility in 2015, look for him to move into the upper-echelon of major league outfielders.
Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays are blessed with a handful of young and talented hurlers, but Hutchison hinted he's ready for a big 2015 last season.
The right-hander logged over 180 innings in 32 starts last season, posting a 4.48 ERA in the process. While that ERA may not seem too promising, his 3.85 FIP indicates he's only going to improve in the years ahead.
His second half was encouraging as well. Hutchison's strikeout percentage jumped from 21 percent to 26 percent, while his walk percentage saw a coinciding drop from 13 percent down to 7 percent. Opponents enjoyed a line-drive percentage of over 20 percent in the season's first few months, but—you guessed it—that number fell to 14 percent in the second half.
The reason for such promising change? An improved slider.
Jeff Sulivan at FanGraphs notes a significant change in Hutchison's slider velocity and break in the final months of the 2014 season:
"Hutchison was absurdly good after he started exclusively using his slower and bigger-breaking slider. That's the encouraging bit. He did finish strong, and it does look like a quality breaking ball, visually. Hutchison's increased confidence in the pitch can't be written off.
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Hutchison pitched well enough this spring to be named the Opening Day starter for the Jays. At 24 years old, he's just starting to find himself as a hurler. His strikeout and walk totals show he's got the stuff, and the development of his slider could be what takes him to that next plateau.
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Marcus Semien, Oakland A's
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The Oakland A's underwent major changes this offseason, including the trade of Jeff Samardzija to the Chicago White Sox. In return, the A's acquired their shortstop of the future in Marcus Semien.
The 24-year-old raked in Triple-A to start 2014, posting a 142 wRC+ in 88 games. That production earned him a shot in the big leagues, where he hit .234 and went deep six times in 64 contests.
Semien has also turned heads this spring. He hit .288 with a .382 OBP in 66 at-bats, while showcasing both pop and plate discipline.
That plate discipline will be what makes or break Semien in the big leagues. He fanned over 27 percent of the time last season, but he's posted high walk percentages in the minor leagues. He walked over 8 percent of the time last season, which is an encouraging number for a young player.
His bat is what has gotten him to The Show, but he'll need to prove he's a capable defender in order to stay at shortstop. He bounced around the infield with the White Sox but has benefited from extended reps at short.
"I think the White Sox believed in me at short too, but they had Alexei Ramirez," he told ESPN's Christina Karl. "I was happy that they worked with me at those other positions, but now, here? Every rep that I get at shortstop, that's what I've always wanted."
Semien's going to be given every opportunity to stick at short. Slugging middle infielders are rare, and his blend of run production and plate discipline could make him the next big shortstop prospect.
Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
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Similarly to the previously aforementioned Marte, Yelich's solid production often goes unnoticed in the shadow of Giancarlo Stanton.
But the 23-year-old outfielder has the skill set to develop into one of baseball's top table-setters. Yelich hit .284 with a .362 OBP last season after years of similar numbers in the minor leagues.
Yelich has always struck out, but he's been able to mask that key deficiency with above-average walk rates. He walked over 10 percent of the time last season, while his strikeout percentage fell from 24 percent to 20 percent.
His .356 BABIP seems a bit high, but it is backed up by a 21 percent line-drive rate and a 61 percent ground-ball rate. Yelich gives himself a chance to reach base with solid contact over 80 percent of the time, while only popping up 1.3 percent of the time.
Those batted-ball statistics may not bode well for a surge in homers, but Yelich should be on base plenty for an improved Marlins offense. He ranked 10th in baseball last season in runs scored, a total that should only increase in 2015.
Yelich swiped 21 bags and won a Gold Glove for his work in the outfield, as well, in 2014. His consistent play earned him a seven-year, $49.5 million extension this winter. The Marlins figure to contend in 2015, so Yelich's continued development in front of a wider audience should make him a household name.
Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
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Wood made a splash for the Atlanta Braves in 2013, but he really started to shine last season. Now the southpaw seems poised to become one of the better left-handed pitchers in the game.
Wood logged over 170 innings in his first season as a full-time starter, posting a 2.78 ERA in the process. The 24-year-old paired high strikeout potential with above-average command to post a near-3.00 WAR season.
As Scott Strandberg of FanGraphs notes, Wood's good work came courtesy of a more frequently used knuckle-curve. According to Strandberg, the development of a third viable pitch should be cause for great optimism for Braves fans:
"For the last three months of this season, Wood was generating whiffs with nearly 20 percent of the curveballs he threw. Now armed with three major-league quality pitches, he saw a dramatic increase in his ability to make hitters chase pitches outside the zone. From 2013 to 2014, Wood’s O-Swing% soared from 23.7 percent to 30.9 percent.
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That curve yielded just a .179 average to opposing hitters and generated strikeouts over 40 percent of the time. His fastball also benefited, as Wood held opponents to an average 20 points lower than in 2014.
Wood has the unorthodox delivery, frame and repertoire to become an elite left-hander. As long as he can remain heathy, 2015 could be the year Wood makes the jump into the top-tier of major league hurlers.
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
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Mookie Betts got his first taste of the big leagues last season with the Boston Red Sox. After a successful start to his career, Betts will look to make an even bigger impact in his first full season.
The 22-year-old flashed everything you want in a player in 2014. He hit for average and power, stole bases and showed defensive versatility. In 55 games, Betts hit .291 with five homers and seven steals.
Eno Sarris at FanGraphs is buying into the hype:
"The traditional peripherals say he can show above-average power, patience, speed, and contact—all while providing defensive value. Even if you take away power, since it was only in 200-odd PA and his projections have him taking a step back, that’s the kind of package you don’t find in a lot of 22-year-olds.
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Betts displayed impressive plate discipline for a young player, as well. The former fifth-round pick posted a 0.68 walk-to-strikeout ratio, which would have ranked in the top 25 if eligible. His .327 BABIP should be easily replicated, as hit the ball on the line or on the ground over 60 percent of the time last year.
The Red Sox will fight for the AL East crown, and Betts will be vital to their success. Another year of production on a winner could put Betts on the fast track to superstardom.
Advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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