2015 NFL Draft Filled with Hit-or-Miss Offensive Linemen
Drafting a highly touted offensive lineman high in the draft is one of the safest picks an NFL franchise can make. That’s one of the oldest adages that I can remember hearing every NFL draft season. But the term “safe” hasn’t accurately depicted the hit-or-miss nature of the draft in general, let alone offensive linemen in recent years.
The 2015 class falls right in line with the previous four drafts. All of the top offensive linemen have some terrific traits that can be developed or refined. If these players maximize their physical and technical potential, they can become NFL studs.
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But what happens when progress isn’t made? If a prospect has a potential fatal flaw in their athletic profile or technique, their likelihood to bust is much greater.
Here’s a list of the first-round offensive linemen selected from the past four drafts.
| Year | Player | Team | Hit or Miss |
| 2011 | Tyron Smith | Dallas Cowboys | Hit |
| 2011 | Nate Solder | New England Patriots | Hit |
| 2011 | Anthony Castonzo | Indianapolis Colts | Leans Miss |
| 2011 | Gabe Carimi | Chicago Bears | Miss |
| 2011 | Derek Sherrod | Green Bay Packers | Miss |
| 2012 | Matt Kalil | Minnesota Vikings | Miss |
| 2012 | Riley Reiff | Detroit Lions | Leans Miss |
| 2013 | Eric Fisher | Kansas City Chiefs | Miss |
| 2013 | Luke Joeckel | Jacksonville Jaguars | Miss |
| 2013 | Lane Johnson | Philadelphia Eagles | Hit |
| 2013 | D.J. Fluker | San Diego Chargers | Leans Miss |
| 2013 | Justin Pugh | New York Giants | Leans Miss |
| 2014 | Greg Robinson | St. Louis Rams | Too Early |
| 2014 | Jake Matthews | Atlanta Falcons | Hit |
| 2014 | Taylor Lewan | Tennessee Titans | Too Early |
| 2014 | Ja'Wuan James | Miami Dolphins | Hit |
Note: Reiff, Fluker and Pugh are decent tackles, but they've all been discussed as needing a positional change. A solid starter wouldn't be mentioned for a move like that.
Just going off the limited sample sizes we have for the above players, I’ve given a “hit” or “miss” grade loosely to each player. First-round players are expected to be solid to great starters, so if each player hasn’t lived up to that, a “miss” was assigned. Things can change as these players advance in their careers, especially for the 2013 and 2014 class. But there is little doubt that taking a first-round lineman is not safe.
The reason is quite simple. Compare the average offensive tackle and defensive end combine results in the last 15 years. Offensive linemen are at a significant athletic disadvantage to edge-rushers.
| Offensive Tackles | Defensive Ends | |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'4" |
| Weight | 316 | 268 |
| Arm length | 34" | 33" |
| 40-yard dash | 5.27 | 4.83 |
| Vertical jump | 28" | 33" |
| 3-cone | 7.78 | 7.22 |
| 20-yard shuttle | 4.75 | 4.42 |
Using Bleacher Report’s Lead NFL Draft Writer Matt Miller's last mock draft, there are five first-round-quality offensive linemen. I’ll explain why each prospect has the potential to be a major hit and also a miss. I’ve created gifs illustrating examples of consistent positives and negatives to help capture their game.
Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa
The first lineman off Miller’s board is Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff. Scherff was a bulldozing player for the Hawkeyes’ power offense. His nastiness and sheer relentlessness is a force to reckon with in the run game.
Scherff has a great physical profile to go with his mindset. He’s 6’5” and 319 pounds with excellent moving skills. He projects best as a guard because of his plus downhill strength.
Whether at tackle or guard, Scherff won’t be a liability in the run game. As seen above, he is able to explode off the ball and drive defenders wherever he wishes. The run game is important but much less so than the pass game.
That’s where Scherff’s major issues pop up. Despite coming from Iowa, Scherff is not a consistent pass protector. When he faced top competition, his major warts continued to pop up on tape.
He has the length to be effective, but Scherff constantly bends at the waist to reach the edge-rusher. This compromises his balance so much that he can be driven back into the quarterback’s lap. Or he’s susceptible to speed-rushers going around him.
The image above illustrates why Scherff will struggle at tackle in the NFL. He has a nice kick slide back but allows Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa to punch him in the chest. At that point, Scherff is toast because he can’t keep Bosa contained, and he’s shoved back.
Now, Bosa is an excellent prospect. But there are many more players of his caliber in the NFL than Scherff saw in the Big Ten. And this is a consistent issue for Scherff. He must be stouter in the passing game to avoid becoming another first-round miss.
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The second lineman to be selected in Miller’s mock draft is Stanford tackle Andrus Peat. Peat is a mammoth human being, standing 6’7” and 313 pounds. He has a frame so large that he, at times, wins by simply being so big.
His physical profile is a major strength on his resume. Looking at his top athletic comparisons from the NFL combine, Peat is most similar to Anthony Castonzo and Gabe Carimi. If you remember our chart earlier, those were two busts from the 2011 class.
On the field, Peat has moments where he uses his physical gifts and technical prowess together perfectly. When this happens, he’s very capable of holding up his end of the bargain as a pass-rusher. Below is an example.
Peat’s best trait is his ability to mirror his opponent in his kick slide. He isn’t quick-twitch or sudden, but his length makes him tough to run around. If he can become more powerful with his hands and place them better more consistently, Peat has All-Pro potential.
But issues arise often for Peat. He looks like Tarzan but plays too much like Jane. That will not work against elite and violent NFL edge-rushers.
Peat doesn’t show natural functional strength in his punches. The idea is to strike the opponent in the chest while having a straight back. This gives a lineman enough balance to defeat a counter move.
His issues handling power aren’t something that usually get significantly better. It’s a natural strength issue. Technique will help Peat improve his effectiveness, but he has the most bust potential of any lineman in this list.
D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
My personal favorite tackle in the class is Florida tackle D.J.Humphries. He has the potential to be a star tackle. And he’s the most likely tackle in this class to reach that.
Humphries left Florida as an underclassman, so he was under the radar for many. He battled injury issues throughout his 2014 season, but when he was able to play, he was excellent.
In a matchup against Missouri edge-rusher Shane Ray, Humphries displayed the ability to control a quality defender with his athleticism and technique. The combination of both makes him very difficult to overcome for any pass-rusher.
The play above shows just how disciplined and effective Humphries is. His ability to stifle the outside rush move is directly due to his powerful punch landing to the inside chest area. Then he simply uses Ray’s momentum against him to drive him out of the passing lane.
Humphries must answer questions about durability and consistency moving forward. He has the tools to be elite but didn’t dominate nearly enough at Florida. That’s his red flag. Can he stay healthy and learn how to fulfill his upside?
La’el Collins, OT, LSU
Similar to Scherff, LSU tackle La’el Collins is a true mauler that makes his name known through nastiness and power. The 6’4”, 305-pound tackle could be a candidate to move to guard because he is more of a run-creator than pass-blocker right now.
Collins is more natural than Scherff at tackle, though. He doesn’t have great technique, but he is more effective than Scherff despite being sloppy. When Collins lifts his arms to engage the defender, he looks like a lobster because he’ll put his hands on the outside shoulder pads of the defender.
That’s not ideal technique. But it does work for Collins. More importantly, he has to stay back and balanced. On this gif below, we see what happens when Collins waits until the defender nears, then engages with his length.
The above play was against Florida edge-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. Collins handily won their matchup in 2014, which speaks of the natural strength and talent that Collins possesses.
When La’el loses a snap, it is usually ugly. Below is an example of his tendency to waist bend. The play is a productive one, but the NFL will be less forgiving than the college level.
Right off the snap we see that Fowler sets Collins up with an outside to inside move. La’el lunges toward the outside move, and he allows for his inside shoulder to be swam over. He then tackles Fowler, and should have been called for a holding penalty.
To improve, Collins must pop off the line of scrimmage and get his hands into the inside chest pads of the defender. Once there, he can control the defender like a rag doll with his strength.
Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
Possibly the safest and cleanest prospect of everyone on this list is Oregon tackle Jake Fisher. He has elite size at 6’6” and 306 pounds and was shown to be a rare athlete at the NFL combine. His ability to shut down defenders with great consistency is a testament to his technique and athleticism.
In Oregon’s offense, Fisher was somewhat masked at times due to the number of quick sets he executed. A quick set usually occurs on three-step drops where the quarterback will get the ball out within seconds. But Oregon did this to help the other linemen, not due to Fisher’s talent.
Fisher shows a quality kick slide with enough speed to meet the defender at the edge of the pocket. This is so critical in the NFL for left tackles. Even more promising is that Fisher has excellent hand strength and placement.
When Fisher gets his hands on to the defender, he rarely loses. He is so smart and efficient with his hands. That will help him play well early in his career.
Finding bad tape on Fisher is somewhat difficult. He is consistently good. One matchup where he lost more often than usual was against Bosa. Bosa’s strength and multitude of pass-rush moves occasionally gave him issues.
Above is a good example of an area that Fisher can improve. His ability to reset in the pocket after absorbing a blow is decent, but not great. Bosa was able to get inside of Fisher’s body, then work off him and create the quarterback pressure.
What would have been more effective for Fisher is if he hadn’t planted his feet when contact was made. Bosa changed directions immediately and funneled himself to the inside lane, and Fisher couldn’t recover.
In a zone-blocking scheme, Fisher can become a star. He’s technically sound right now and has the physical profile to be dominant. He’s certainly worthy of being a first-round pick in this class considering his lack of weaknesses.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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