
2015 Final Four Will Be Ultimate Test in Kentucky's Pursuit of Perfection
INDIANAPOLIS — Kentucky arrives at the Final Four as the best team in the modern era of college basketball. That isn't my opinion. It's what the numbers say.
If you scour Ken Pomeroy's site, which tracks teams back to 2002, his Pythagorean rating has the current Kentucky squad knocking 2008 Kansas off its analytics perch as the best of this era. (I would try to explain how the Pythagorean rating works, but it's probably best if you just Google it or read Bill James.)

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Now here's another thing that the numbers, not me, say about Kentucky: Through 38 games, the 'Cats had it pretty easy (more on this later), and over their final two games—assuming they get to play Monday night—few, if any, will have it tougher.
If Duke wins over Michigan State on Saturday night, the winner of Kentucky vs. Wisconsin would have a chance to knock off two No. 1 seeds at the Final Four. That has only happened twice in the history of college basketball—Arizona in 1997 and Kansas in 2008.
The tournament is so fickle and random that rarely do we get the highest-ranked teams playing at the end. Rarely do the teams best equipped to beat a champ make it to the final weekend.
This is where Kentucky's pursuit of perfection gets hairy.

Kentucky's defense is the ultimate "Here we are, bet you can't beat us" bunch.
When backup point guard Tyler Ulis was asked on Friday what Wisconsin could do to present a challenge to UK's defense, he answered, "We haven't really studied them. [Kentucky coach John Calipari] isn't into film."
And when you really study the 'Cats, it's almost as though the teams on their schedule weren't about looking at the tape either.
Go poll coaches about the way to attack Kentucky's length, and they would tell you that playing one-on-one is the worst way to try to score.
"We want guards to come in the paint, because we've got good shot-blockers," Kentucky center Dakari Johnson said.
Yet somehow UK opponents have a high percentage of their possessions end in isolation. According to Synergy Sports, only five other Division I teams see more isolation offense than Kentucky.

This is the beauty of Kentucky's defense. The Wildcats want you to drive at them, and they somehow convince you that's the solution. UK opponents have assisted on an NCAA-low 40 percent of their buckets, according to KenPom.com. That suggests hero ball has been the offense of choice.
The 'Cats deserve some credit for this, but the schedule has also paid them a few favors. The best offense in the SEC, other than Kentucky, was Vanderbilt.
If you want to poke holes in the Wildcats' armor, this would be the place to start. Their schedule has been pretty light when compared to past champs in the modern era. The game against Notre Dame was Kentucky's only win over a team currently in the KenPom.com top 10.
Out of the last 13 champs, only Duke in 2010 and Florida in 2007 had less than two wins against the KenPom top 10 entering the Final Four—both, like UK, had one apiece.
And now we have that game against the Irish in the Elite Eight to prove the Wildcats aren't invincible.
Notre Dame proved that when a team with a disciplined and efficient offense goes at the 'Cats, it might just have a chance.
And that brings us to the Final Four.

As far as historically great offenses go, Wisconsin is up there. Saturday will feature the best defense in the KenPom era against the best offense.
And Notre Dame provided a blueprint for how to get it done.
The Irish used player and ball movement to get good looks, even at the rim. They had 16 assists on 26 buckets and scored 40 of their 66 points in the paint.

"I think Notre Dame did a good job of being able to finish over length," UK assistant coach Kenny Payne said. "Obviously we helped them somewhat, but at the end of the day, they played really well. Their spacing of the floor was really good, and Wisconsin is similar."
The Badgers are similar in that like the Irish, they move the ball well—Bo Ryan's swing offense is designed to whip the ball around the court—and they're incredibly efficient because their patience leads to good shots.
Even when you force the Badgers into a contested late-clock shot, they've got Frank Kaminsky to go through.
"Dude plays angles," UK junior Willie Cauley-Stein said. "It's like when you're younger and you played against your uncle. He's going to use the backboard. He's going to make shots that you don't think should go in, but he's perfected the shot."
Wisconsin also just played the defense most similar to Kentucky's in college basketball. Arizona is Kentucky Lite with the most comparable length—three starters at 6'7"-plus—and shot-blockers protecting the rim. The Badgers lit those Wildcats up for 55 points in the second half last Saturday.
Duke is even more Notre Dame-ish than Wisconsin in that Mike Krzyzewski has gone to a small-ball attack that features four shooters and an efficient scorer on the blocks. The significant difference is that Duke's big man, Jahlil Okafor, does his work with his back to the basket and Notre Dame's Zach Auguste is more of a pick-and-roll specialist.
"Playing a team like Notre Dame, who is an unbelievable shooting team, passing team, cutting team, efficient offensively, it was good for us," Calipari said. "And we had to play near perfect down the stretch to try to win the game. And the guys did."

The best way to capture the difficulty of what Kentucky has left is to look back on those 2008 Jayhawks. The best team in 13 years of data, which they were, trailed by nine points in the national championship with two minutes left.
It took a storybook comeback, one of the greatest shots in the history of the tournament and overtime to win a national title.
There's no rule that says the best team always wins.
There's also no rule that says you have to play a great schedule to win a national title—and in Calipari's defense, some of the blue bloods he scheduled (Kansas and UCLA) were down this year.
But no matter how you want to dissect Kentucky or its awesome defense, here's what's obvious: The basketball gods have given the Wildcats no breaks on their chase of 40-0.
To do it, they will likely have to go through the best offense (Wisconsin), the second-best offense (Notre Dame) and the third-best offense (Duke) in college basketball. And they may need to go through two No. 1 seeds in three days.
Now that would be a truly historic feat.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.



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