NCAA Bracket 2015: Keys for Final Four Underdogs to Pull off Upsets

While the majority of fans are expecting Kentucky and Duke to meet in the national championship game, don't count out a pair of upsets in the Final Four.

The NCAA tournament has already featured plenty of top seeds going down in the opening rounds. With the competition only getting tougher in the national semifinals, you can expect more craziness to occur going forward.

According to Odds Shark, both Wisconsin and Michigan State are five-point underdogs on Saturday. Still, each of them can pull off upsets if they follow these keys.

Michigan State vs. Duke

Control Jahlil Okafor

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While there might be some debate about whether Jahlil Okafor will be the top pick in the 2015 NBA draft, there is no denying his dominance at the college level. The center is one of the best collegiate low-post players in years, boasting the technique to finish in the post with impressive efficiency.

If you want to slow down Duke offensively, you need to find a way to prevent Okafor from scoring in the post with ease.

That job will come down to the frontcourt duo of Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo recently gave this pair high praise, via Mike Griffith of MLive.com:

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I told you we could be a damn good team, and these guys (Costello and Schilling) have come far. Schilling was making great progress, then he tapered off, and now he's back on track. 

Costello was playing really well for a stretch, and he still has his moments, but he's doing a lot of good things for us, and he has been a stabilizer.

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Neither player can match up physically with Okafor like Utah could with Jakob Poeltl or Gonzaga could with Przemek Karnowski. However, they will need to hold their own in the post or else the Duke star will take over.

Make the Extra Pass

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For much of the season, Duke was known as an offensive-minded team that lacked on the defensive end of the court. However, this is not the case, as the squad has improved immensely in the latter phase of the game.

WSJ Sports broke down the defense's level of improvement in the NCAA tournament:

On the plus side, Michigan State is used to facing top defenses given its schedule over the past few weeks. Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville are three of the toughest teams in the nation to score against, and the Spartans figured out a way to get past each of them.

Although Travis Trice has done a good job of creating for himself in these games, the squad's best course of action is working the ball around and always looking to find the open man.

According to kenpom.com, the team ranks seventh in the country in assists per made field goal.

If players like Trice, Denzel Valentine and Branden Dawson can keep the ball moving, they will be able to score against this suddenly sound defense and pull off the upset.

Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Spread the Offense

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No one has beaten Kentucky this season, but Notre Dame showed what it will take to have success offensively against the elite defense.

Brian Hamilton of Sports Illustrated broke down the "five out" offense the Irish employed to keep things competitive in the Elite Eight:

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The relatively undersized Irish knew they could not attack the rim against the Moai statues Kentucky deploys as a frontline for its top-ranked defense. So they decided to take the big men as far away from the rim as possible. No Notre Dame player occupied a spot in the lane. All of them hovered around the three-point line, moving from spot to spot, replacing each other and then circling back, occasionally setting up a side pick-and-roll. The Irish lulled the Wildcats with this drowsy choreography. When someone bolted to the rim on a backdoor cut, he found no one protecting the bucket when he got there.

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Wisconsin can utilize this same strategy with five players on the court capable of shooting from three-point range. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are especially tough matchups as scorers who can make plays either in the paint or from the perimeter, and it will keep the Wildcats off guard.

Kentucky's strength is its size in the post with a pair of seven-footers patrolling the lane in Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. Even when this duo is out, players like Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee make things difficult for opponents.

You won't beat this group when it is all in front of the basket, but spreading it out can provide a much easier path to success.

Control the Glass

As well as Notre Dame played against Kentucky, the undersized squad was never going to prevent the second-chance points the Wildcats have come to expect. Their elite frontcourt makes the offense so dangerous, as any missed shot can turn into an easy layup.

According to kenpom.com, Kentucky ranks sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. On the other hand, Wisconsin is No. 4 in defensive rebounding percentage.

Wisconsin isn't always the best defensive team in the country, but it usually limits opponents to just one scoring opportunity per possession. This could make a huge impact in the Final Four battle.

If the Badgers can box out and keep the Wildcats off the offensive glass, they will have a good chance of pulling out the win.

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