MLB's Historically Slow Starters You Should Consider Benching Early on
Every day counts toward building a fantasy baseball champion. A rough start won't derail the entire season, but it could dig a steep hole down the line.
Head-to-head leagues of course value the final weeks more than the opening months. In those formats, gamers can tread water, secure a playoff bid and catch fire at the right time. Rotisserie players don't hold that luxury.
Unfortunately, some players spend the opening weeks dusting off the cobwebs. Fantasy managers should consider shelving a select few notorious slow starters until they wake up from hibernation.
Examining such distinct splits is dangerous. Carlos Santana hit .151 last April, but he started 2013 batting .389. Sometimes there's simply no rhyme or reason to random variance within a small sample size.
That's why this list only looks at players with a prolonged history of poor April production. If someone routinely falters in the same spot, it's possibly more than unactionable noise.
Also, superstars are safe. David Price entered May with a 4.75 ERA last season, but nobody is benching the Detroit Tigers ace. Although April is his worst month in terms of career ERA (3.91) and opposing OPS (.719), he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
These guys have yet to earn such unwavering trust, so beware April showers.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
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April splits aside, Matt Cain hasn't pitched an official game since July 9. Given the veteran accrued a 4.18 ERA and 4.58 fielding independent pitching (FIP) before an elbow injury ended his season, he's far from a safe start.
For those who drafted him banking on a rebound, give him an outing or two on the bench. He holds his worst ERA (3.77) and FIP (4.30) during the initial month, and 272 innings offers a substantial sample size.
Despite his 43.0 percent fly-ball rate, Cain has limited long balls up until the past two seasons, where his career home run/fly-ball (HR/FB) ratio rose above 10 percent for the first two times. Yet he has surrendered 34 homers before May, more than any other month.
Colder weather and windier conditions make a fly-ball pitcher's job much tougher, so this isn't a mere coincidence. Keep this is mind, as he's not the only mentioned starter who generates fly balls at a heightened rate, leading to trouble during crisp spring days.
Chris Carter, 1B/DH, Houston Astros
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Chris Carter is an all-or-nothing guy. When he's hot, he scorches home runs left and right. When he's cold, like last April, he hits .153/.270/.329 with a 37.0 strikeout percentage.
At some point this season, he's going to test owners' resolve, causing everyone to wonder why they thought drafting a .225 hitter was the smart thing to do. Then he'll end up with 35 deep flies, and those same managers will want him again next year.
It's a bit early to brandish him a terrible starter, as he delivered six homers to kick off 2013 despite a .227 average and 42.2 strikeout percentage. But if it's at all possible to avoid a cavernous valley before enjoying his peak, owners should take note.
Most teams don't have the luxury of benching such a deadly power asset. If anything, keep a close eye on his first couple of games. Any 0-for-4 with four strikeout performances should sound off the warning sirens.
Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres
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A popular breakout candidate last year, Jedd Gyorko crushed drafters' spirits by batting .162/.213/.270 before the All-Star break. He exited April with one lone homer and a .151 average, forcing spurned owners to cut bait.
This year, the 26-year-old second baseman is a nice bounce-back play, particularly given his deflated price tag. In standard mixed leagues, however, he must work his way back into starting lineups.
Gyorko crushed 23 round-trippers during a promising 2013, but none were claimed in April. That gives him a .269 slugging percentage through two Aprils, which is significant since his owners are taking a leap of faith following an atrocious 2014.
Starting the season inside the pitching-friendly Dodgers Stadium, the San Diego Padres will then play the next seven games at Petco Park. Use that time as a trial period for the power sleeper.
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Adam LaRoche, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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A notorious second-half slugger, Adam LaRoche reversed the narrative last season, raking in the first half before sliding after the All-Star break.
While he batted .312 with four homers last April, that's the outlier among his career resume. Over 11 years, LaRoche hits .224/.318/.401 in April with a 24.4 strikeout percentage.
He's also a cautionary tale against reading too much into monthly and half splits. Despite his inconsistency when dissecting every season, he has delivered at least 20 homers in nine of the last 10 years. During the lone holdout year, he played 43 games.
At least give LaRoche a short leash against lefties, whom he holds a career .240/.208/.420 slash line against. On Wednesday, he'll face southpaw Danny Duffy, who limited lefties to a .386 OPS as a rookie.
Phil Hughes, SP, Minnesota Twins
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The best pitcher on the list, Phil Hughes is the toughest starter to sit. Yet his past tendencies don't bode well for the Minnesota Twins' Opening Day starter.
During his career, Hughes has surrendered a 6.15 ERA in 131.2 April innings. He allowed 17 runs through last season's opening month, finishing his first three outings each with four runs through five frames.
To eschew those trends, he must overcome the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day and the revamped Chicago White Sox later that week. It's certainly possible, as he earned a 3.42 FIP last April. Holding his past tribulations with the New York Yankees against him is also unfair after significantly improving with the Twins.
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Before writing critical words about Brandon McCarthy, it's imperative to note he's a tremendous breakout choice. The righty pitched 200 innings for the first time in his career, netting a 3.55 FIP and 5.3 K/BB ratio.
He transformed with the New York Yankees, authoring a 2.89 ERA following an early July trade. Before the deal, however, he got clobbered for a 5.01 ERA with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Rough starts are nothing new for the 31-year-old, who wields a 5.27 ERA through 194.2 April innings. Although he continues to trade fly balls for grounders, he has dished up 23 homers before May.
Making matters worse, McCarthy has allowed 10 runs during a brutal spring. Don't drop or cross him off the draft board, as he has also tallied 19 strikeouts to three walks through 18 frames. Just wait for the wind to stop blowing balls over the fence.
Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
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He's only 26 years old, but it's probably time to throw in the towel on Rick Porcello ascending to fantasy stardom. After an encouraging 2013, his K/9 rate reverted to 5.67, making him a borderline mixed-league play despite a solid 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Until he proves otherwise over the long run, Porcello is now a matchup play. Considering his career 6.12 April ERA, those matchups don't strike during the first month.
In a common thread among these pitchers, the righty serves more homers early, pegged with 1.32 long balls per nine innings. Over his six-year career, Porcello sports a 0.93 HR/9 ratio.
Unlike Cain and Hughes, Porcello and McCarthy coerce ground balls with regularity. Yet they're both prone to high-drive rates, and none of those four April-adverse arms lights up the radar gun.
Control artists limit self-inflicted wounds, but they'll also get knocked around from time to time. Perhaps April is a bad month for contact-inducing finesse throwers without gaudy strikeout numbers.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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