Breaking Down Most Likely Winners of NCAA Tournament's Most Outstanding Player

College basketball’s Final Four is set in stone, but the student-athletes of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and Michigan State will be playing for more than a national title banner in Indianapolis. 

There are still a number of extremely talented players, like Karl-Anthony Towns and Frank Kaminsky, vying for the title of the NCAA tournament’s Most Outstanding Player, but only one can claim the top individual honor.

If the last few decades are any indication, the most outstanding player will be selected from the team that wins it all—Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwan in 1983 was the last MOP winner not from a championship team—so the smart money would be on one of John Calipari’s men. However, who among the Wildcats is most deserving of being named March’s top performer?

The candidates are myriad, but that’s why we’re here to break them down—and some of our selections (and omissions) may just surprise you.

But what if the Big Blue Nation doesn’t actually finish 40-0? [Pause for laughter.] Seriously though—if Kentucky slips up, a power vacuum will open for future NBA draft picks from the other three schools to become national champions (and, by extension, most outstanding player).

In this list, we’ve ranked the top candidates for the NCAA tournament award based on that individual player’s performance in the tournament so far and likelihood his team will win the whole thing.

We’ve listed the top five players in order from least likely to most likely (relative to one another), but first let’s give a nod to the honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Denzel Valentine (Michigan State)

In his four NCAA tournament games so far, the Spartan guard is averaging just over 13 points per game. He’s also registered six rebounds and 4.5 assists per game to help the Spartans beat Georgia and then upset Louisville, Oklahoma and Virginia. He certainly would have made the top five if it weren’t for his four-point outing against Virginia, which hurt his consistency rating.

Trey Liles (Kentucky)

It wouldn’t be the first time a Kentucky freshman has won the award for most outstanding tournament player (anyone remember Anthony Davis in 2012?), but he’s too far from the limelight on this stellar team. His 11 points and 7.3 rebounds per game so far in the tournament are stellar stats for the forward (and they handily beat his season averages), but he’s just not the Wildcat at the forefront of everyone’s mind right now, and that will hurt his chances.

Quinn Cook (Duke)

Though he’s averaged 14.5 points per game so far in March, he’s not the best Duke has had to offer in this tournament. His scoring production has also decreased each game, which is not the ideal trend for winning this award (which honors consistency and leadership). However, since his 4.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game are more-than-respectable additions to his average point total, the senior guard definitely deserves a nod on this list.

Tyus Jones (Duke)

The freshman guard has been an assist master with an average of 5.5 per game, but his six points from 36 minutes on the court against San Diego State hurt his production average. When the tournament runs only six games deep, nobody can afford to take a night off. And, like Cook, he also got bumped off the numbered ranking thanks to a superior teammate.

Branden Dawson (Michigan State)

Branden Dawson’s average points per game may have decreased from 14.5 in the first two outings against Georgia and Virginia to 7.5 in his last two against Louisville and Oklahoma, but he made up for it by becoming a rebounding machine. The senior pulled in 11 rebounds each in his last two games, beating his season average by nearly two full boards when it mattered most. He’s neither the best Spartan nor the outstanding leader set to snatch all the headlines if MSU win the title, but he’s done more than enough to deserve a shout-out here.

No. 5 Sam Dekker (Wisconsin)

The Badgers’ 6’9” forward has been an absolute juggernaut in this year’s NCAA tournament. The big man has hauled in 22 rebounds over four games and conceded only five personal fouls in total.

Sam Dekker has also consistently put up phenomenal points every game with equally phenomenal shooting accuracy: 20 points against Coastal Carolina (53 percent from the field), 17 points against Oregon (50 percent FG), 23 points against North Carolina (67 percent FG) and 27 points against Arizona (nearly 73 percent FG).

But the junior is more than just a threat inside. Dekker has also knocked down 48 percent of his three-point attempts so far, including hitting 5-of-6 against No. 2 seed Arizona.

As far as leadership at crucial times is concerned, you couldn’t ask for much more than your junior setting his career high points-per-game total in the Sweet 16 then breaking it again in the Elite Eight (as highlighted in the second half of the above video).

While Dekker has every bit the resume to be called outstanding, he’s not quite Wisconsin’s top dog at the moment. Because of that—and his 8-1 odds, per Odds Shark—he only breaks in at No. 5.

No. 4 Travis Trice (Michigan State)

You get major points for being the difference-maker on a Final Four Cinderella team, but that also means the odds are stacked against your school winning it all. The fact that No. 7 seed Michigan State will have to beat two No. 1 seeds in a row to win the title means Travis Trice may not even be considered for the award—and that’s why he’s No. 4 on this list.

According to Fox Sports, the senior guard is “second in the tournament in made 3-pointers, one behind UCLA’s Bryce Alford,” and he “leads his team in scoring, assists and heart.” Trice is averaging just under 20 points per game in the tournament, which is nearly five points higher than his season average.

Add 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc and an ice-cold 88.8 percent from the charity stripe, and you’ve got a Spartan who can carry the team on his back when it’s do or die. When he’s on, he’s on, and there aren’t many teams that can respond to the barrage of three-pointers Trice is capable of knocking down when he feels it (as illustrated in the above video).

If MSU were to win to win the tournament, Trice would undoubtedly take the MOP honor. (In fact, an easy parallel could be drawn with Connecticut’s Shabazz Napier who won the award last year from a similar scenario.) However, the fact that MSU is the least likely to win of the Final Four teams hurts Trice’s individual odds.

No. 3 Justise Winslow (Duke)

At 5-1 odds to win MOP, per Odds Shark, Justise Winslow is in a dead heat with Duke teammate Jahlil Okafor for the award. However, Winslow has come on strong and stayed strong in March while Okafor has seen his average point production drop drastically from 23.5 points per game in the first two games of the tournament to 7.5 in the last two (a full 10 points below his season average).

Winslow has improved his season points-per-game average of 12.5, per ESPN, to 14 in the tournament. The freshman has also drastically improved his rebounding average from 6.3 during the season to 9.5 in the tournament. And let’s not forget about his assists-per-game average, which has increased from 2.1 to 3.25.

When he’s not scoring, Winslow can also be a force on defense. In the above video he demonstrates the will to dig in and be a team player even when the shots aren’t falling. 

Across the board, Winslow has stepped up to deliver for his team in March, and that is why he edges Okafor on this list, even though oddsmakers consider the two to be level.

Duke’s odds of winning the NCAA tournament are fair, as the Blue Devils are more highly rated than their semifinal opponent Michigan State. However, Duke would still have to beat Kentucky in the final to give Winslow any chance of being MOP—and that will be a tall task since the Wildcats know they’ll be playing for immortality.

No. 2 Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin)

Speaking of teams that have to beat Kentucky, let’s turn our attention to the Badgers’ star man: Frank Kaminsky. With devastating points, rebounds and free-throw shooting, the Wisconsin forward is the definition of senior leadership stepping up for the big occasion.

The Big Ten player of the year has bested his season average 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game with tournament averages of 22.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Kaminsky’s also been hitting his free throws at a rate of almost 87 percent in March Madness, which is almost 10 percentage points higher than his season average.

As msn.com notes, “He leads his team in points, rebounds, assists and blocked shots,” and he is “[perhaps] the single most important player in this Final Four.” Furthermore, Sporting News ranked Kaminsky as the top player in the nation heading into the tournament, and he’s only gotten better.

In the above video from February, coach Bo Ryan calls Kaminsky “as good as any player in the country right now for what he means to his team,” going on to say, “and he’s backing it up with performances” before adding, “he’s pretty steady.” Though that second part may be the CBB understatement of the year, the fact is that interview from over a month ago is just as accurate now as it was back then.

That’s saying something.

Wisconsin has a decent shot at beating Kentucky—at least as good as Duke’s—and the 7-footer will undoubtedly need to be huge to make that happen. If the Badgers manage the incredible feat of winning the tournament, Kaminsky will be remembered for leading his team past one of the greatest squads in college basketball history.

In fact, even if they lose to Duke in the final, that hypothetical victory over Kentucky might be enough to earn Kaminsky MOP honors anyway—and that’s why he’s a ahead of Duke’s Winslow on this list.

No. 1 Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky)

It had to be a Wildcat—but why Karl-Anthony Towns?

Well, the Wildcats needed a hero against upset-minded Notre Dame on Saturday, and Towns answered the call in metaphorical cape and spandex. He scored an epic 25 points against the Irish to haul Kentucky to a two-point victory and into the Final Four.

As shown in the above video (about the 1:30 mark), Towns wasn’t afraid to take responsibility and score with the ball when his team was down a pair with less than two minutes to go. Notre Dame was arguably Kentucky’s biggest scare of the year, and Towns was mentally and physically strong enough to throw his teammates a lifeline when it mattered most.

Odds Shark lists Towns as the favorite for MOP at 3-1, just ahead of teammate Willie Cauley-Stein at 4-1 in the epic battle of Wildcats with hyphenated names. 

Granted, Towns hasn’t been perfect in this tournament. He only scored one point against West Virginia, but he also only received 13 minutes of playing time in that outing. Since the Wildcats had a big lead early and went on to win 78-39, it made sense for Calipari to rest one of his best.

Towns’ 13.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game so far in the tournament give him a slight edge over Cauley-Stein’s 7.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Both players have an excellent opportunity to win the MOP award since they are on the favorite team to win it all, so anything could happen in the next two games. 

Cauley-Stein could come up big against Wisconsin and Duke/MSU to make his case, but as of right now it looks to be Towns’ award to lose. The No. 1 man on Chad Ford’s Big Board, via ESPN, will be difficult to knock off his pedestal.

Statistics courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise noted.