Marcus Mariota Following in Bridgewater's Footsteps as Draft's Underrated QB
As usual, the NFL draft is delivering a strong sense of deja vu to fans who follow it closely.
Every year the draft repeats storylines. The names, faces and positions change, but the question marks remain the same. Who will take the risk on the highly talented but troubled prospect? How far will the injured superstar fall? Which prospects are just workout warriors?
Rinse, repeat.
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While storylines tend to repeat themselves, the most prominent one that is reoccurring this year is somewhat unusual. For the second year in a row, a quarterback previously seen as the favorite for the first overall selection appears to be dropping down the draft. The drop may not be as severe as last year, but that's likely a reflection of the difference in overall quality between the two classes.
Marcus Mariota is the unfortunate quarterback to follow in the footsteps of Teddy Bridgewater.
He is no longer being discussed as a first overall pick; it appears that FSU's Jameis Winston has locked that position up. He isn't even seen as a likely option to go second overall, although he hasn't been completely ruled out. Instead, Mariota regularly falls to sixth overall in mock drafts.
He even fell as far as 17th in Bucky Brooks' mock draft on NFL.com.
The negatives that have engulfed Mariota in recent times are a stark contrast to how he was viewed around 16 months ago. It was around this time when Mariota was still being considered for the 2014 draft before he ultimately decided to return to the University of Oregon in Eugene for another season.
""I think that if he had decided to leave, he would have been the first quarterback taken."
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Evaluations are always fluid, and Mariota is at least being criticized for his on-field play rather than his franchise face or knee width like Bridgewater was. However, it's odd to think that Winston has overtaken the Oregon quarterback based on the respective play of each last season.
While Mariota didn't have a great season, he played well enough to lead his team to the national championship game. Meanwhile, Winston was significantly worse in 2014 than he was in 2013.
Winston was always going to have the advantage of playing in a system that is perceived as more like an NFL offense, but his performances transitioned violently from brilliant to awful. Winston repeatedly dug holes in the first halves of games with poor decisions before pulling his team out of them in the second half with exceptional play.
He wasn't the model of consistency and precision that had carried FSU to the national championship the previous season.
The FSU prospect obviously wasn't eligible for the 2014 draft, but the initial evaluations when he returned to school appeared to lean in the Oregon quarterback's favor. Therefore, you'd be forgiven for presuming that this new perception is justified by Mariota having suffered a spectacular drop in performance this past season.
Reading Coverage/Decision-Making
One of the more prominent knocks against Mariota is that he is a system quarterback. System quarterback is a term that doesn't come with a clear definition, but it typically suggests that the player is incapable of making coverage reads downfield.
While the Oregon offense spread the field for Mariota and put him in shotgun all the time, he still had to show off the understanding of how to break down coverages and the poise to move through his options.
Predetermined throws are prevalent in college and for many quarterbacks in the NFL. Mariota's offense featured plenty of predetermined throws, but he also had enough opportunities to show off his ability to react to the defense after the snap.
On this play against Michigan State, Mariota understands that he is going to make his decision based on what the deep safety does. This is because of the route combinations that the offense is employing against the alignment of the defense.
The timing of this play is what stands out. Mariota gets to the top of his drop, steps forward and immediately delivers the football down the field.
He begins to release the football as soon as the deep safety moves with the crossing route from the outside. The defense blew an assignment here as the two underneath defenders allowed the seam receiver to run free, but that didn't matter much for Mariota's decision-making process.
It must be noted that four of his receivers were to one side of the field on this play, but that's not indicative of what Mariota needs to be successful.
Mariota regularly reads through a progression that takes him from one area of the field to another. On this play, the defense only sends three players after the quarterback, so Mariota must manipulate the coverage to help create space for his intended target.
He opens the play by looking wide to his left. From there, he appears to bring his eyes infield toward the seam before making a quick pump fake to draw the underneath coverage toward that side of the field.
Although the three-man rush gave him time, the speed with which Mariota went from his first read to the other side of the field was still very impressive. By looking to his left initially before throwing a fake, Mariota was able to create space for his receiver running infield from his initial wide-right position.
The speed at which Mariota makes decisions is very impressive.
On this play against Ohio State, Mariota's mental quickness is highlighted. The GIF has been slowed down to pinpoint the moment when Mariota's eyes left the three receiving options to the left and came back to the middle of the field.
Both of the slot receivers broke toward the outside when Mariota took his eyes back to the middle of the field.
He was looking at his other receiver running underneath before either receiver had come out of his break. With his quick release, Mariota was able to get the ball to that receiver for an easy seven-yard gain. The quarterback needed to be that quick too, as he was immediately hit after he released the ball.
Anticipating route combinations against coverages and manipulating defenders in space are both important aspects of reading the defense—just as important is reacting to any blitzes at the snap.
Because of Oregon's approach on offense and Mariota's explosiveness, it made sense that he didn't see too many creative blitzes in college. That is something that will likely continue when he becomes a starter in the NFL.
When he was blitzed, Mariota showed off the poise and awareness to quickly diagnose the defense.
On this play, the offense uses motion that highlights what the defense is going to do at the snap. Mariota understands that the second-level defenders are coming after him at the snap, so he is very quick to get rid of the football.
With a shortened drop, Mariota is able to immediately recognize his wide-open receiver down the left seam.
The seam receiver was open because of the motioned receiver running into the flat behind him. The flat receiver held one of the four defensive backs left in coverage, so Mariota only had to beat the covering safety coming across the field with his throw.
Mariota was able to drop a perfect pass into his teammate so he didn't have to break stride. The poise and intelligence from the young quarterback played a major role in setting up this long touchdown.
Managing the Pocket
If you search for a pro comparison for Mariota, chances are you'll find more Colin Kaepernick comparisons than any other. The Kaepernick comparisons are accurate if you base quarterback comparisons on straight-line running ability, but outside of that, there is very little they share in common.
Kaepernick has a much stronger arm than Mariota, but more importantly, Mariota plays with the subtlety that has hindered the San Francisco 49ers starter in the pocket.
Many quarterbacks with exceptional speed tend to run on instinct. They are more likely to leave clean pockets and make more elaborate moves to react to pressure. Understandably, they trust their legs to gain yardage, so escaping to the outside seems like a good idea.
NFL coaches typically design plays to work from the pocket. The timing of route combinations and the placement of receivers/routes won't consistently work if the quarterback can't stay in the pocket.
Obviously, NFL defenses aren't simply going to sit back and let the quarterback stay in the pocket all day, so the passer must be able to adjust while staying close to the middle of the field. To do that, the individual needs to have quick, balanced feet and an ability to sense pressure instead of go looking for it.
Mariota excels at sensing pressure and does an outstanding job of always putting himself in the best possible position to help his pass protectors.
If you go through Kaepernick's snaps in the NFL, you'll quickly notice that most of his negative plays come when you get him to move his feet. When he moves his feet unnaturally, he immediately drops his eyes and looks to scramble.
He doesn't set and reset like the better quarterbacks in the NFL do.
As the above GIF highlights, Mariota will comfortably set and reset while keeping his eyes downfield. He senses the pressure to his left and calmly moves to a spot where he will have enough time to release the ball. He takes a hit after he lets the ball go. But by then his receiver has come open, and he has found him.
This was a subtle movement that you may have missed if you weren't actually looking for it. It was a crucial movement for the success of this play though.
Finding the right balance between being too stationary and being too quick to scramble is difficult to do. Throughout his time on the field in college, Mariota has shown off a natural ability to consistently play with that balance.
Interior pressure is something that disrupts most quarterbacks. It's more difficult to adjust to than edge pressure because most quarterbacks will understand how to step up in the pocket when they have space.
Mariota is comfortable adjusting to pressure from any point. That is because of how he makes subtle movements with his feet. He is comfortable moving sideways or making slight forward and backward movements to give his blockers better leverage.
His first read on this play is down the right sideline, his second is down the left seam and his third is down the left sideline.
While quickly going through his progression, Mariota steps forward in the pocket against a three-man rush. Despite the three-man rush, his center is left alone in space against a defensive tackle. That defensive tackle is working toward Mariota as he looks at his first read.
However, with a slight footwork adjustment as he brings his eyes further toward the left sideline, Mariota is able to glide to his left. This puts his center directly between him and the defender.
As Mariota releases the football downfield, he is completely clean in the pocket. Part of that was due to the limited pass rush the defense sent after him, but his adjustment was also significant for evaluating him as an individual.
Making subtle movements is important, but at times Mariota will also need to be more aggressive with his movement in the pocket.
More aggressive moves can often lead to a quarterback becoming reckless or inaccurate because he needs to throw from an adjusted platform. He may not have been forced to make these kinds of adjustments as often as others, but he showed enough ability when asked.
These are the traits and nuances of a quarterback's skill set that get lost when you attempt to throw away his evaluation solely because of the system he plays in.
Eye Level
Instead of comparing Mariota to a quarterback such as Kaepernick because of his running ability, it makes more sense to focus on the more important quarterback traits. His ability to read coverages and adjust in the pocket is impressive, but one trait stands out more than others when projecting him forward.
Mariota's eye level is phenomenal. Regardless of where he is behind the line of scrimmage or how much pressure he is under, he always keeps his eyes downfield.
While the comparison can be tough to comprehend because of their physical differences, Mariota most resembles Ben Roethlisberger as a passer. Neither player has a huge arm or great accuracy, but Roethlisberger has excelled in the NFL because of his ability to be effective both in and out of the pocket.
Roethlisberger (6'5", 241 lbs) has often used his large frame to evade defenders in the NFL. Mariota (6'4", 222 lbs) is strong, but he will evade defenders in a different way.
This slowed-down play allows us to watch Mariota's reactions to pressure in the pocket when his first read isn't available. He is forced to turn quickly away from the incoming pressure because he couldn't anticipate and adjust subtly on this occasion.
Often when a quarterback drops his eyes to make a move like this, they never go back up to find receivers downfield.
Like Roethlisberger, Mariota isn't like most quarterbacks. Instead, the youngster is able to draw two second-level defenders toward him because of his threat running the ball before throwing the ball over their heads to a wide-open receiver.
The second-level defenders are put in a tough spot against a mobile quarterback who doesn't have tunnel vision when the play breaks down. Athletic quarterbacks who play with poor eye level routinely miss open receivers downfield because they can't bring their eyes back up.
It's easy to defend those quarterbacks because the second-level defenders can be aggressive. They can't be against Mariota.
The other benefit of a quarterback who can extend the play inside the pocket is that his receivers are often afforded more time to get open. On this play, the defensive back falls down early in the play, but Mariota has to evade a free defender in the pocket before he can find him.
Mariota appears set to run out of the pocket, but his eye level draws him to throwing the ball downfield at the last second.
He may have been late to recognize the wide-open receiver, but he did recognize him. This level of awareness and willingness to go in search of the big play by throwing the ball is something that translates to Mariota's play outside of the pocket also.
Mariota is a very fast runner (4.52 40-yard dash), but he's not an exceptionally elusive runner. As such, he is unlikely to break off huge plays or consistently evade defenders in space downfield. Instead, he creates big plays by using his awareness and intelligence outside of the pocket.
As such, the physical differences between him and Roethlisberger don't actually have a significant impact on how they play the game on the field.
Arm Talent
If you are the kind of evaluator who prioritizes arm strength, Mariota is the quarterback for you. He doesn't have the ability to throw the ball as far as Joe Flacco or Matthew Stafford with ease. He won't create so much velocity that his receivers' hands hurt when they catch the ball.
Yet, Mariota doesn't need that kind of arm strength to be a good NFL quarterback. He has enough arm strength to be effective in the NFL, and his short-to-intermediate velocity is impressive.
Mariota's accuracy is spotty. It's his greatest weakness. He needs to be more consistent and precise with his ball placement to all areas of the field. It's possibly something he can rectify by addressing his mechanics, or it may get better through repetition.
His accuracy isn't such that it will handicap him in the NFL though. His velocity and ability to control the trajectory of his passes should allow him to be effective from his first start in the NFL.
Mariota should be able to pick apart defenses underneath and on intermediate throws with some ability to push the ball down the field. His early years may be frustrating for fans, as he will likely struggle to even find open receivers on passes greater than 30 yards.
Teams typically don't look to throw the ball that far on a regular basis, though, so its importance isn't as great as is often perceived.
Picking the defense apart underneath is more important. Being able to deliver the ball accurately and on time to these areas are crucial for the success of any passer. Mariota has two traits that will give him huge advantages when attempting to do this.
His velocity underneath is impressive on its own, but when it is combined with his exceptionally quick release, the value multiplies.
It should be very difficult for even NFL defenders to read Mariota and break on the ball ahead of his intended receiver. This will be especially difficult for linebackers working over the middle of the field or safeties trying to anticipate where he is going with the ball before he throws it.
His quick release will also frustrate defensive linemen.
On this play, Mariota begins the play looking to his left, where he has one receiver running down the sideline and one waiting in the flat for a quick throw. Neither player is open, so he holds on to the ball and brings his eyes back to the middle of the field.
As it so often did, the Arizona defense got a free rusher at Mariota by delaying the fourth man in its rush and sending him from the second level.
That rusher appears set to get to Mariota as he releases the football. However, Mariota gets rid of the ball so quickly that his throw is completely clean. The quarterback still had to suffer a hit after he let the ball go, but his throw wasn't disrupted.
With a similar play call from the defense on this play, Mariota is forced to initially evade an interior rusher by subtly shifting his feet before releasing the ball quickly ahead of the incoming rusher. He is still able to deliver the ball accurately and on time for a first down.
These are the types of plays a player who is reliant on his system doesn't consistently make. Mariota is elevating his teammates by masking their mistakes with his play from the pocket.
That is exactly what the best quarterbacks in the NFL do on a regular basis.
Reluctant Runner
Running quarterbacks are often defined by their athleticism. Mariota isn't a running quarterback, and his athleticism should be viewed as a secondary trait. It is an element of his skill set that elevates the rest of his talent to another level.
Most significantly, he doesn't force his runs. Athleticism can become a negative to quarterbacks, but it rarely does for Mariota, as his first instinct is to commit to the original design of the play.
On this play, Mariota attempts to extend the play within the pocket with his initial movement and his first reaction to that movement. From there, he doesn't have a receiver open down the field, so he uses his athleticism to create a safe first down.
This is the kind of play Mariota will need to consistently make in the NFL.
It's easy to focus on the system Mariota played in during his time at Oregon. It's even easier to do that when the other top quarterback prospect played in a system that resembled many in the NFL. Systems alter a player's production rather than his skill set.
An inability to separate Mariota from his skill set will take away any chance of gaining an accurate evaluation of him.
Mariota shouldn't be talked about as someone who will fall in the draft. An argument can be made that Winston is the better player, but the difference between the two is not so significant that one should go first overall and the other should fall outside the top two.
The NFL overthought Bridgewater when he came out. Doing the same with Mariota so soon after could prove to be a fatal mistake for many head coaches and general managers.
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