Despite ACL Injury, Todd Gurley Edges Melvin Gordon as Draft's Most Promising RB
The 2015 NFL draft class offers up some transcendent talent at the running back position that should permeate every round. Leading the way are Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Georgia’s Todd Gurley. Both prospects are in the mix to end a two-year drought of not having a running back selected in the first round.
Though it’s difficult to predict which of these two RBs will be taken first in the draft, for me, Todd Gurley is by far the more superior prospect. Unfortunately, a torn ACL could be enough to push Gordon to the top of this deep running back class.
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In the end, I have to take my chances with Gurley, who is the more complete running back of the two, unless unsettling details about his knee emerge in the coming weeks.
Background
In high school, Gurley won three consecutive 2A State Championships. His junior year he played safety on defense and running back on offense. He also ran track in high school, where he participated at the 2011 World Youth Championships in France.
In his first year at the University of Georgia, Gurley started his career off with a bang. He ran for 100 yards on just eight carries in his first collegiate game. By the end of his freshman year, he ended up sending a strong message that reverberated across the college football landscape when he set the school’s record for rushing touchdowns (17) back in 2012.
As for the Wisconsin native, Melvin Gordon, he was a 247Sports 4-star high school recruit who elected to stay close to home when he decided to become a Badger.
Durability
Gordon suffered a groin injury his freshman year in 2011 and was given a medical redshirt. Aside from that, he has maintained his health throughout three seasons and 631 carries.
Gurley’s first significant injury came in his sophomore year of 2013 when he suffered an ankle injury that forced him to sit out three games. Then came the devastating torn ACL on his left knee that cut his promising junior campaign short. Gurley continues to rehab from this injury to date, which has kept him from performing at both the scouting combine and his school’s pro day.
According to Greg Gabriel, who is the former Director of College Scouting for the Chicago Bears, Gurley’s knee is very much something to be concerned about. “We don’t know what’s going on with Gurley’s knee medically’ Gabriel said. “It’s a red flag that he didn’t let doctors look at his knee at the combine.”
Gabriel has been in the scouting business for over 30 years and knows a thing or two about projecting prospects at the next level. He warns that any medical information coming out publicly at this time is likely not credible. “The reality of it is, we don’t have any clue as to what type of condition Gurley’s knee could be in right now. If there’s arthritis in the knee, that sort of thing never gets better, it only gets worse. “
Hopefully Gurley’s knee injury will heal cleanly, but as Greg says, we really don’t know anything regarding his physical condition.
What we do know is that Gurley should be relatively fresh if his knee checks out.
One other concern regarding durability is that Gurley has a bruising, upright running style, which could leave him vulnerable to further punishment. Can he withstand a 16-game NFL season?
Production
| Melvin Gordon | 45 | 631 | 4,915 | 7.8 | 45 |
| Todd Gurley | 30 | 510 | 3,285 | 6.4 | 36 |
Gurley only has 510 career carries for 3,285 yards while averaging 6.4 yards per carry and scoring 42 times over a 30-game span. His biggest statistical year happened to come during his freshman campaign. He would never play a full season again before declaring for the NFL draft.
Meanwhile, Gordon had 343 carries for 2,587 yards in 2014 alone. He also had 29 touchdowns while averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Gordon fell 42 yards short of breaking Barry Sanders’ FBS record of 2,628 yards, set in 1988.
It's worth noting that Sanders' record came in only 11 games, in which he averaged 238.9 yards per game. Gordon averaged 184.8 over 14 games.
For his career, Gordon had 4,915 yards rushing while averaging 7.8 yards per carry and 45 rushing touchdowns.
In 45 games at Wisconsin, Gordon only caught 22 passes for 228 yards, while Gurley had 65 catches for 615 yards.
Measurables
Unfortunately, we won’t be able to fully gauge Todd Gurley’s measurables with him not working out. But the film shows us that Gurley has elite top-end speed to go with a 6’1”, 222-pound frame. In addition, his 10” hands are among the biggest of this RB class.
Gordon measured in at 6’1”, 215 pounds. He finished sixth among RBs in his explosion grade, which adds up his vertical and broad jump along with the number of strength lifts he completes.
| Melvin Gordon | 6'1" | 215 | 9.75" | 4.52 | 19 |
| Todd Gurley | 6'1" | 222 | 10" | N/A | 17 |
In terms of his speed and agility score, which also factors in weight, Gordon is fourth among RBs in this class.
In truth, Gordon did not turn out to be the speedster many had thought he would be. But it’s unfair to hold that against him when comparing him to an injured Todd Gurley.
Character Concerns
Gurley was suspended four games “for accepting more than $3,000 for autographed memorabilia and other items over a two-year period,” as per Paul Newberry of The Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports).
Georgia Bulldogs coach Mark Richt commented on his tailback’s character back in November in this quote provided by Mike Huguenin of NFL.com:
"I still think if I'm an NFL team and I'm looking at Gurley, I'm going to say, you know what, the guy might have done this thing -- which I don't know how much they care that he got some money to sign some autographs or not -- but I think they care about his character and they care about what kind of person he is. As far as just, you know, if you make a mistake, you know, 'fess up to it. And he did, and I'm proud of him. I'm proud of the guy (for) being truthful.
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As for Gordon, there is nothing noteworthy about his character on the negative end. He checks out as a hard worker who should become a consummate professional.
Tape
In a recent article, Bleacher Report’s Matt Bowen had this to say about the Georgia running back:
"A back with good vision, Gurley can find running room in both zone and power schemes to attack the hole. And when he sees daylight, it's one cut and go. Stick the foot in the ground and accelerate up the field to attack the secondary. He has a burst that jumps off the film. It's impressive.
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According to Greg Gabriel, the tape reveals some concerns in Melvin Gordon’s game:
“With Gordon, there are questions about how good of a pass-catcher he is, and he struggles in pass protection. Now, most running backs coming out will have some struggles when it comes to pass protection but what you look for there is their ‘want to,’ how much does that guy want to make contact.”
From what I’ve seen, Gordon does show a decent level of effort as a blocker to not be overly concerned by it.
Where Gabriel sees holes in Gordon’s ability as a receiver and blocker, Bowen lists these as strengths for Todd Gurley in that same article:
“Playing in a pro-style offense at Georgia, Gurley has been coached up in pass protection and can catch the ball out of the backfield. That's key to making the transition and staying on the field in the NFL during critical game situations. He's a true three-down player…”
Both Gabriel and I agree that Melvin brings some serious home run ability to position that helps to explain why he is viewed as a potential first-round candidate. However, Gurley is the more complete back in terms of his physical presence and ability to run between the tackles.
To quote Gabriel: “The thing about Gordon is the way he’s able to get to top speed so quickly. His stop and go is impressive. Gordon also has a nice jump cut. But he’s not the back you rely on to break tackles or get yards after contact. Gurley, on the other hand, is much more of a power back and really punishes guys when he gets the second level.”
In an article by NFL.com’s Chase Goodbread listing the best options for the Eagles to replace LeSean McCoy (before they signed DeMarco Murray), former NFL scout and Media Analyst Bucky Brooks liked Gordon over Gurley as a first-round option in this quote:
“If it's the first round, Melvin Gordon, because he's one of the best ones there. He played in a zone system at Wisconsin that is similar to what the Eagles do, in terms of how he reads lanes and cuts. He didn't spend a lot of time in the shotgun, so that would be something new for him, but it wouldn't be much of an adjustment.”
However, one NFL scout, via Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, had this alternative perspective on Gordon:
"I'm not buying into all the hype. When he hits it right it's a big play, but he's not real instinctive and he's not a great catcher. I don't think he's smart enough to do the blitz pickup stuff. Someone will take him because he's a big guy. ... He's not going to be on the field on the most important downs."
It’s worth noting that this particular scout prefers T.J. Yeldon over of Gordon.
Add ball security issues to the list of concerns that have been made about Gordon's game. According to Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, Gordon fumbled every 54.4 times he carried the ball. By contrast, Gurley fumbled every 191.7 times.
According to Gabriel, one concern that both running backs have in common is the schools they come from.
“Another thing about drafting running backs is you always have to be careful drafting guys from running back factories like Wisconsin and even Georgia, “ Gabriel said.
Just look at what the freshman running back Nick Chubb was able to do for Georgia once Gurley went out. He put up 1,594 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 yards per carry. He went on to become the SEC Freshman of the Year among other accolades.
There is no question that people are leery of Wisconsin running backs, but this guy should not be compared to Ron Dayne or Montee Ball. He is far more gifted as a runner. Nevertheless, we have to wonder how much of this is responsible for inflating Gordon’s ridiculous rushing stats.
On the other side of this, do we give credit to Gurley for harder-earned yards against tough SEC defenses?
"Because of his ACL injury, RB Todd Gurley isn't receiving the attention he should be as a NFL prospect. He's a special talent.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) March 31, 2015"
Bottom line for me is, Gurley has rare speed, balance and quickness for a guy his size, and he knows exactly how to use these assets on a football field. There aren’t many notable things that Gordon can do as a runner that are better than Gurley—as such, this puts Gurley in a rare group of elite prospects. The only variable that even makes this a close call are the injury and durability concerns with Gurley.
So, if my medical staff can sign off on Gurley’s health, he is easily the superior prospect. With that said, don’t be surprised if Gordon has the better rookie season. It usually takes a calendar year before a football player can completely recover from an ACL reconstruction. Once that happens, Gurley should be able to take off and become one of the better running backs in the NFL.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Ryan Riddle is a former NFL player who writes for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter @Ryan_Riddle.
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