Power Ranking All 30 MLB Starting Rotations at the Start of 2015
There are really just 29 rotations to rank.
Everyone knows the Washington Nationals claim the No. 1 spot in the power rankings of all 30 MLB rotations at the beginning of 2015. While the Nats have assembled a group of starters that have the potential to be historically dominant, the other 29 staffs fall all across the spectrum.
In the process of building these power rankings, two primary factors were taken into consideration:
- 2014 performance
- 2015 projected performance
As for that second bullet point, the foremost focus was on the additions and subtractions that each respective club made over the offseason. Spring training results were also a minor part of that equation.
Unsurprisingly, the Nats aren't the only World Series contender that landed right at the top of the rankings.
30. Colorado Rockies
1 of 30
The Projected Staff
- Kyle Kendrick, RHP
- Jordan Lyles, RHP
- Tyler Matzek, LHP
- Jon Gray, RHP
- David Hale, RHP; Eddie Butler, RHP; Christian Bergman, RHP
The Colorado Rockies starting rotation was a train wreck in 2014.
The team added veteran Kyle Kendrick to the mix, but Colorado will also likely be without the injured Jorge De La Rosa to start the season, per Nick Groke of The Denver Post. Top prospects Jon Gray and Eddie Butler offer hope for the future, but for now this remains the worst group of starters in baseball.
29. Minnesota Twins
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The Projected Staff
- Phil Hughes, RHP
- Ervin Santana, RHP
- Ricky Nolasco, RHP
- Kyle Gibson, RHP
- Tommy Milone, LHP
The Minnesota Twins just couldn't stop giving up runs in 2014. Last season, the starting staff allowed the most runs in baseball.
Fortunately, the American League Central team brought in Ervin Santana over the winter to solidify the group. Minnesota will also need a far more effective campaign from Ricky Nolasco, who turned in a 5.38 ERA in the first season of his four-year, $49 million deal.
28. Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Projected Staff
- Josh Collmenter, RHP
- Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
- Rubby De La Rosa, RHP
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
- Chase Anderson, LHP; Robbie Ray, LHP; Daniel Hudson, RHP; Allen Webster, RHP
The rotation was a major liability for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2014. One look at the list of arms who figure to start in 2015 suggests the staff will once again be a problem spot for the D-backs.
The above list is littered with either unproven or underwhelming pitchers, but one starter who doesn't get his due is Josh Collmenter. Ideally, he wouldn't be an Opening Day starter, but the right-hander ended the 2014 season in impressive fashion. In his final 12 starts, Collmenter reeled off a 3.00 ERA.
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27. Texas Rangers
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The Projected Staff
- Yovani Gallardo, RHP
- Derek Holland, LHP
- Colby Lewis, RHP
- Ross Detwiler, LHP
- Nick Martinez, RHP
The Texas Rangers would be much further up in the rankings if Yu Darvish was around to anchor this rotation. With the Japanese right-hander sidelined for the entire 2015 season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, the Rangers find themselves in a bad spot. Outside of Yovani Gallardo and Derek Holland, the staff is riddled with question marks.
26. Philadelphia Phillies
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The Projected Staff
- Cole Hamels, LHP
- Aaron Harang, RHP
- David Buchanan, RHP
- Jerome Williams, RHP
- Sean O'Sullivan, RHP; Kevin Slowey, RHP
Talk about a drop-off.
According to Matt Lombardo of NJ.com, veteran journeyman Aaron Harang is slated to follow up lefty ace Cole Hamels in the Philadelphia Phillies' starting five. If not for the presence of Hamels, this rotation would check in at the No. 30 spot in these rankings.
25. Houston Astros
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The Projected Staff
- Dallas Keuchel, LHP
- Scott Feldman, RHP
- Collin McHugh, RHP
- Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
- Roberto Hernandez, RHP; Asher Wojciechowski, RHP
In Dallas Keuchel, Scott Feldman and Collin McHugh, the Houston Astros have the makings of a solid top three. While Feldman is the established veteran, both Keuchel and McHugh still have to prove that they can repeat their impressive performances from a season ago. Before Keuchel and McHugh broke out in 2014, neither starter had enjoyed much success in the big leagues.
24. Tampa Bay Rays
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The Projected Staff
- Chris Archer, RHP
- Nathan Karns, RHP
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP
- / 5. Matt Andriese, RHP; Everett Teaford, LHP; Mike Montgomery, LHP; Burch Smith, RHP
Health issues send the Tampa Bay Rays rotation plummeting in these rankings.
Per Bill Chastain of MLB.com, Alex Cobb (forearm tendinitis), Drew Smyly (shoulder tendinitis) and Alex Colome (pneumonia) are all set to miss the start of the campaign. As a result, the final two spots in the rotation remain up for grabs among a slew of competitors as Opening Day rapidly approaches.
23. Cincinnati Reds
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The Projected Staff
- Johnny Cueto, RHP
- Mike Leake, RHP
- Anthony DeSclafani, RHP
- Jason Marquis, RHP
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP; Michael Lorenzen, RHP
The Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day rotation sure looks different than it did a season ago. The only familiar faces are Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, as Homer Bailey gets up to speed in the minors after having elbow surgery in September. There are also a couple of new faces to keep an eye on. Anthony DeSclafani is at the top of that list. In his first five spring outings, the 24-year-old right-hander reeled off a 1.83 ERA.
22. Toronto Blue Jays
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The Projected Staff
- Drew Hutchison, RHP
- R.A. Dickey, RHP
- Mark Buehrle, LHP
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP
- Daniel Norris, LHP
It's a downright shame that Marcus Stroman is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Last summer, the right-hander started to demonstrate he was one of the rising stars in the AL. Even with the 23-year-old on the shelf, the Toronto Blue Jays still have a trio of high-upside arms to keep an eye on in Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris.
21. Milwaukee Brewers
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The Projected Staff
- Kyle Lohse, RHP
- Matt Garza, RHP
- Wily Peralta, RHP
- Mike Fiers, RHP
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP
The Milwaukee Brewers better hope that their rotation stays healthy in 2015. Outside of the top five starters listed above, the NL Central team is dangerously thin when it comes to insurance options. A backup plan could be needed considering the relative inexperience of Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson.
20. Miami Marlins
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The Projected Staff
- Henderson Alvarez, RHP
- Mat Latos, RHP
- Dan Haren, RHP
- Jarred Cosart, RHP
- Tom Koehler, RHP
Even with Jose Fernandez working his way back from Tommy John surgery, the Miami Marlins still have an array of quality arms in their rotation. The NL East squad brought in a couple of proven veterans in Mat Latos and Dan Haren over the winter, but it all starts with Henderson Alvarez.
The de facto ace doesn't generate anywhere near the same kind of buzz as Fernandez does, but he enjoyed an excellent season in 2014. The right-hander ripped off a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts, which was the sixth-best mark in the NL.
19. New York Yankees
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The Projected Staff
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
- Michael Pineda, RHP
- CC Sabathia, LHP
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
- Adam Warren, RHP
There's one monster storyline surrounding the New York Yankees rotation: the health of Masahiro Tanaka. Currently, the Japanese starter is pitching with a minor tear in his pitching elbow. Adam Wainwright dealt with a similar issue and thinks Tanaka can make it work.
"I healed up perfectly fine and I had six years before I blew it out completely," explained the St. Louis Cardinals ace, via David Lennon of Newsday. The Yankees will be banking on Tanaka's elbow cooperating in a similar fashion, because without him the team has no chance in the AL East.
Ivan Nova would also give the team a boost if he returns. He threw his first breaking pitches on March 23 since getting Tommy John surgery in April, per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.
18. Atlanta Braves
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The Projected Staff
- Julio Teheran, RHP
- Alex Wood, LHP
- Shelby Miller, RHP
- Wandy Rodriguez, LHP
- Eric Stults, LHP; Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
Like so many other teams around the league, the Atlanta Braves could use some help in the Nos. 4 and 5 spots. However, the top three provide plenty of reason for optimism—especially the one-two punch of Julio Teheran and Alex Wood. Last season, Teheran snagged an All-Star selection, while Wood checked in with a 2.78 ERA.
The wild card is Mike Minor. The lefty is battling shoulder tightness. MLB.com's Mark Bowman reported Minor could return by early May if he has no setbacks.
17. Boston Red Sox
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The Projected Staff
- Clay Buchholz, RHP
- Rick Porcello, RHP
- Wade Miley, LHP
- Justin Masterson, RHP
- Joe Kelly, RHP
On paper, the Boston Red Sox don't have an ace. What the team does have is a far steadier rotation than the one the club trotted out a season ago. Thanks to the offseason additions of Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson, the Red Sox should have no trouble improving on the 4.36 ERA that the club's starters racked up in 2014. That mark was the fifth worst in baseball.
16. Chicago Cubs
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The Projected Staff
- Jon Lester, LHP
- Jake Arrieta, RHP
- Jason Hammel, RHP
- Kyle Hendricks, RHP
- Travis Wood, LHP; Edwin Jackson, RHP
With the signing of Jon Lester and the return of Jason Hammel, the Chicago Cubs starting staff is looking strong heading into 2015. With those acquisitions, there might not be any room for Edwin Jackson in the starting five.
The veteran pitcher has had an interesting spring. Per Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago, the right-hander showed up just 20 minutes before a start against the Oakland Athletics on March 24. He was late due to an issue with Google Maps.
"I typed in Oakland Athletics spring training complex and it took me to the old one," explained Jackson, via Rogers. "I know it was crazy."
Jackson entered the contest in the second inning and was torched for eight runs in 1.2 frames.
15. San Francisco Giants
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The Projected Staff
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP
- Matt Cain, RHP
- Tim Hudson, RHP
- Jake Peavy, RHP
- Tim Lincecum, RHP
There's no question about it. After Madison Bumgarner, there is all sorts of talent, but there are also all sorts of issues surrounding the San Francisco Giants starting five. Matt Cain is rebounding from elbow surgery, and Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy wobbled badly in October.
Then there's Tim Lincecum, who pitched his way directly out of the rotation at the end of 2014. However, when he's right, he is unhittable. Lincecum is about to enter his contract season, and that could be just the motivation he needs to get back on track.
14. Kansas City Royals
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The Projected Staff
- Yordano Ventura, RHP
- Danny Duffy, LHP
- Edinson Volquez, RHP
- Jason Vargas, LHP
- Jeremy Guthrie, RHP
Even with the departure of James Shields, there's a lot to like about this group of starters.
Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy will now be tasked with headlining the staff, and both demonstrated that they could take on such a responsibility a season ago. In 2014, Ventura posted a 3.20 ERA, while Duffy ended the campaign with a 2.53 ERA.
Offseason acquisition Edinson Volquez also has the potential to be an excellent addition to the squad. The right-hander was dealing in the second half of 2014, putting up a 2.20 ERA after the All-Star break for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
13. Los Angeles Angels
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The Projected Staff
- Jered Weaver, RHP
- C.J. Wilson, LHP
- Matt Shoemaker, RHP
- Hector Santiago, LHP
- Andrew Heaney, LHP; Nick Tropeano, RHP
The Los Angeles Angels take a slight hit in the rankings as a result of the absence of Garrett Richards (left knee surgery).
Per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, the right-hander could be activated from the disabled list as soon as April 11. However, for now, the Angels have yet to schedule Richards' first start.
As a result, the AL West club is set to begin the season with a four-man staff. If another starter is needed before Richards is back to 100 percent, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano are the leading contenders to get the call.
12. Baltimore Orioles
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The Projected Staff
- Chris Tillman, RHP
- Wei-Yin Chen, LHP
- Bud Norris, RHP
- Miguel Gonzalez, RHP
- Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP; Kevin Gausman, RHP
Manager Buck Showalter is facing a good problem.
The best way to summarize the state of the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation is to consider that Kevin Gausman isn't even guaranteed a spot as Opening Day approaches.
According to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, the O's skipper is still trying to decide whether the 24-year-old will begin the season in the rotation, the bullpen or in Triple-A. Gausman had an electric end to 2014, as he posted a 2.87 ERA in five September starts.
11. Oakland Athletics
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The Projected Staff
- Sonny Gray, RHP
- Scott Kazmir, LHP
- Jesse Hahn, RHP
- Kendall Graveman, RHP
- Drew Pomeranz, LHP; Jesse Chavez, RHP; Barry Zito, LHP
This rotation is sneaky good.
Sonny Gray, the owner of a dominant curveball, has the potential to become one of the best starters in the AL in 2015. Neither Scott Kazmir nor Jesse Hahn generates much hype, but they both impressed in 2014, posting a 3.55 ERA and a 3.07 ERA, respectively. Kendall Graveman and Drew Pomeranz both have limited big league resumes, but they've show plenty of upside in spring training.
10. Cleveland Indians
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The Projected Staff
- Corey Kluber, RHP
- Carlos Carrasco, RHP
- Trevor Bauer, RHP
- T.J. House, RHP
- Zach McAllister, RHP
Corey Kluber, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, is the undisputed ace of this staff. However, it's Carlos Carrasco who will be the linchpin for the Cleveland Indians. Last year, the right-hander posted a 1.72 ERA in the second half. If he can come close to matching that production, the Tribe will have a filthy one-two punch.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Projected Staff
- Francisco Liriano, LHP
- Gerrit Cole, RHP
- A.J. Burnett, RHP
- Charlie Morton, RHP
- Jeff Locke, LHP
The Pittsburgh Pirates have an unheralded, but highly effective group of starters. Last year, the staff checked in with the 10th-best ERA in baseball.
During the offseason, A.J. Burnett was the club's big addition, but it's Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole who are the Pirates' big arms. Liriano was dealing in the second half of 2014, posting a 2.20 ERA in his final 14 starts. Cole is still just 24 years old and owns a 3.45 ERA since arriving at PNC Park in June of 2013.
8. Chicago White Sox
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The Projected Staff
- Chris Sale, LHP
- Jeff Samardzija, RHP
- Jose Quintana, LHP
- John Danks, LHP
- Hector Noesi, RHP
The Chicago White Sox rotation—especially the top three arms—looks dangerous entering 2015. Jeff Samardzija, whom the team acquired in an offseason swap with the Oakland Athletics, provides the perfect right-handed complement to go along with lefties Chris Sale and Jose Quintana.
Sale, who is recovering from a broken right foot, won't be good to go for Opening Day, but his first start has already been lined up. According to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago and 670 The Score, the ace will take the mound for the White Sox on April 12.
7. Detroit Tigers
24 of 30
The Projected Rotation
- David Price, LHP
- Justin Verlander, RHP
- Anibal Sanchez, RHP
- Shane Greene, RHP
- Alfredo Simon, RHP
With Max Scherzer out of the picture, the Detroit Tigers really need Justin Verlander to return to form after posting a 4.54 ERA in 2014. The 32-year-old's final week of the spring hasn't exactly been going to plan. Per Chris Iott of MLive.com, Verlander has been scratched from his next start as he works his way through a triceps issue.
6. San Diego Padres
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The Projected Staff
- James Shields, RHP
- Tyson Ross, RHP
- Andrew Cashner, RHP
- Ian Kennedy, RHP
- Odrisamer Despaigne, RHP; Brandon Morrow, RHP
This San Diego Padres starting rotation is going to cause a lot of problems for opposing hitters in 2015.
Per Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego, James Shields has earned the nod as the staff's Opening Day starter. It wouldn't be shocking if Tyson Ross takes over the mantel as the club's ace by the middle of the season. Last year, the righty put up a 2.81 ERA in 31 starts.
5. New York Mets
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The Projected Staff
- Bartolo Colon, RHP
- Matt Harvey, RHP
- Jacob deGrom, RHP
- Jon Niese, LHP
- Dillon Gee, RHP; Rafael Montero, RHP
Laugh all you want about Bartolo Colon as the New York Mets' Opening Day starter. This rotation is no joke.
Zack Wheeler is out for the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but the Mets still have a couple of big-time rising aces in Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. With so much pitching talent on the roster, New York has the ability to make a dark-horse run for a wild-card spot.
4. Seattle Mariners
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The Projected Staff
- Felix Hernandez, RHP
- Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP
- James Paxton, LHP
- J.A. Happ, LHP
- Taijuan Walker, RHP
Entering the season, the Seattle Mariners have the most fearsome rotation in the AL.
Everyone knows what Felix Hernandez can do, and it looks like the M's have another emerging ace in Taijuan Walker. This spring, the 22-year-old has been dominating Cactus League batters. In 25 innings, Walker has piled up 24 punchouts, while allowing just nine hits.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Projected Staff
- Clayton Kershaw, LHP
- Zack Greinke, RHP
- Brandon McCarthy, RHP
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Joe Wieland, RHP
The Los Angeles Dodgers drop into the No. 3 spot in the rankings thanks to the balky left shoulder of Hyun-jin Ryu. The starter is set to be shut down for another week after dealing with pain in his throwing shoulder, per ESPN.com.
ESPN.com points to Joe Wieland as the likely replacement for Ryu. If the Korean's shoulder issue lingers, the Dodgers will have to seriously consider looking outside the organization for an extra arm. According to John Hickey of Bay Area News Group, Los Angeles is one of the teams that has been scouting Oakland Athletics lefty Barry Zito.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
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The Projected Staff
- Adam Wainwright, RHP
- Lance Lynn, RHP
- John Lackey, RHP
- Michael Wacha, RHP
- Carlos Martinez, RHP
This group is looking awfully imposing heading into 2015.
Adam Wainwright, the owner of a 2.38 ERA a season ago, is a perennial Cy Young contender. Lance Lynn could enter that conversation in the upcoming campaign, as the righty sported a 2.74 ERA in 2014. John Lackey is the team's savvy vet, and Michael Wacha is the youngster with all sorts of upside.
Then in the No. 5 spot is Carlos Martinez, who has the kind of stuff to be an X-factor for the Cardinals in 2015. The right-hander has spent his time in the big leagues working as a reliever, but he has an impressive minor league track record as a starter. In five seasons on the farm, Martinez posted a 2.61 ERA in 70 outings (69 starts).
1. Washington Nationals
30 of 30
The Projected Staff
- Max Scherzer, RHP
- Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
- Stephen Strasburg, RHP
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP
- Doug Fister, RHP
This group of starters is stupid good.
Now that Max Scherzer sits atop the rotation, there isn't even room for Tanner Roark. Last season, the right-hander turned in a 2.85 ERA for the Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, Doug Fister, who put up a 2.41 ERA, will be the No. 5 starter based on the way manager Matt Williams set up the pitching schedule, per James Wagner of The Washington Post.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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