Final 'Fact or Fiction' on 2015 MLB Spring Training's Breakout Stars
For the last month, your head and heart have been engaged in an epic battle. Your head tells you spring training stats don't matter. But your heart—oh that silly heart!—wants to believe.
Here's the thing: They're both right.
Yes, every year tantalizingly hot spring performances evaporate in the heat of summer. At the same time, plenty of players carry their scalding exhibition output into the regular season.
The trick is identifying which is which.
With that in mind, let's put some of this year's breakout Cactus and Grapefruit league stars under the microscope and ask whether their preseason showings are more fact or fiction.
For our purposes, we'll look only at spring studs with a shot at a starting gig but with thin or nonexistent big league resumes (sorry, Mike Trout). And we'll define "fact" as a player who continues on a star-level pace, rather than merely clinging to a 25-man roster.
Get your heads and hearts in order and proceed when ready.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
1 of 7
The Seattle Mariners' pitching staff is headlined by Felix Hernandez and led the American League with a 3.17 ERA last season.
So they don't need former first-round pick Taijuan Walker to emerge as a front-line starter—but it wouldn't hurt.
So far, Walker has looked the part. His minuscule 0.36 ERA paces all qualifying spring starters, and he's racked up 24 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched.
Left-hander Roenis Elias, Walker's primary rotation competition, is next scheduled to appear in a minor league game, Ryan Divish of the The Seattle Times notes. That means Walker has likely shored up the fifth-starter gig, though Bob Dutton of The News Tribune thinks the M's will ultimately go with a "modified six-man rotation."
If he keeps pitching like this, Walker won't stay a fifth (let alone sixth) starter for long.
Verdict: Fact
Walker is still only 22. The stuff and the spring results are there, but as general manager Jack Zduriencik told Barry Svrluga of the The Washington Post, "The maturity factor’s an issue."
So far, Zduriencik likes what he sees, per Svrluga:
"[Walker] has come into spring training and he’s been on a mission. I think everyone can attest to it: He's handled himself very well. He's a great worker. He's a terrific athlete. He's got great stuff. And everyone in the organization since the day he came here has been waiting for his time, his maturation. And I think that what he's shown us this spring has been very, very impressive.
"
Add the advantage of Safeco Field—the most pitcher-friendly yard in baseball last year, according to ESPN's MLB Park Factors statistic—and you've got the makings of a bonafide breakout season.
C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels
2 of 7
When the Angels lost Josh Hamilton to a shoulder injury and subsequent drug suspension, a void was created. This spring, C.J. Cron is making a case that he's the man to fill it.
Cron belted his third home run on Sunday and is hitting .407 with a 1.185 OPS in the Cactus League. He's not a whiz with the glove, but suddenly the powerful 25-year-old is looking like a viable everyday option.
The Halos already have pop with Trout and Albert Pujols; an unexpected explosion from Cron, who launched 11 bombs in 242 at-bats last year, could elevate their offense to the next level.
Verdict: Fiction
Cron might well be a complementary piece for the defending American League West champions, spelling Pujols at first base and splitting time at designated hitter with the lefty-swinging Matt Joyce.
But Cron's lack of plate discipline—he posted a pedestrian .289 OBP in 2014—suggests more boom-and-bust masher and less offensive cornerstone.
Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 7
Joc Pederson arrived in camp with a job to win, and then he simply arrived.
Manager Don Mattingly still hasn't made it official but come on: Pederson has positively raked in the Cactus League, bashing six home runs to go along with a 1.154 OPS while looking comfortable in center field.
Hitting coach Mark McGwire offered effusive praise for the Dodgers' touted prospect, telling JP Hoornstra of the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin (via the Los Angeles Daily News) he sees "a superstar in the making."
The Verdict: Fact
Pederson has yet to meet a level he didn't like, and last year he won Pacific Coast League MVP honors with a 30-30 campaign.
He got his feet wet in 18 big league contests in 2014, but he kept his rookie status intact. That's significant, because a Rookie of the Year trophy is well within reach.
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Jordan Lyles, Colorado Rockies
4 of 7
It's rare that the words "dominant pitcher" and "Colorado Rockies" go hand-in-hand. So forgive Rocks fans for drooling over Jordan Lyles' spring line: 21 IP, 2 ER, 0.86 ERA, 0.71 WHIP.
As Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post notes, "While the Rockies are trying to decide who should fill out their rotation, Jordan Lyles continues to show why he’s been their most reliable starter this spring."
The Verdict: Fiction
You'll note Saunders said "reliable," not "dominant." It's a word that suggests a steady, workmanlike output, but it's not the stuff aces are made of.
That's an optimistically accurate assessment of Lyles, who owns a career 5.09 ERA in parts of four seasons with the Rockies and Houston Astros.
Yes, he's only 24, meaning improvement is possible. And he posted a sub-4.00 ERA in 12 starts away from Coors Field last season.
Trouble is, Lyles calls Coors Field home. For non-dominant pitchers, that usually means "reliable" is a best-case scenario.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
5 of 7
On Monday, Kris Bryant became the best hitter in either league to be reassigned to minor league camp.
Predictably, the Major League Baseball Players Association sounded off, calling it "a bad day for baseball," per MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
Just as predictably, Theo Epstein, the Cubs president of of baseball operations, sold it as purely a development decision, nothing to do with service time or arbitration clocks, no sir.
"[He's] really close to being not just in the big leagues but to playing an important role on the team," Epstein said, according to Muskat. "His camp mattered. We're more likely to get him sooner than later with how he's playing and how close he showed."
The Verdict: Fact
Bryant didn't merely have a good spring; he had a transcendent spring. After blasting 43 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014, the 23-year-old hit nine in 40 Cactus League at-bats, to go along with 15 RBI and a .425 batting average.
It's impossible to look at those numbers and swallow Chicago's explanation about Bryant heading back to Iowa to work on his defense.
Still, Epstein was truthful in at least one instance: Bryant will take the field at Wrigley sooner than later. And once there, he'll be one of the best hitters—period.
Kendall Graveman, Oakland A's
6 of 7
Athletics fans who are still sore over the Josh Donaldson trade can slather on a hefty dose of Kendall Graveman. The 24-year-old right-hander wasn't the biggest name in the deal (not even close), but he's making himself known this spring.
In 21.1 innings pitched, Graveman has surrendered a single earned run while holding opponents to a .143 batting average.
As the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser notes, the sinkerballer has recorded 35 outs on the ground compared to nine in the air, suggesting he's getting results not via luck but on his own terms.
"I'm just trying to get contact, and weak contact, and the defense played great behind me," Graveman said, according to Slusser. "I like to visualize things, and I did visualize a good Cactus League season."
The Verdict: Fact
It's easy to write off Graveman, a former eighth-round pick who has flown mostly under the radar. But these are the A's of general manager Billy Beane, a club that's built an enduring legacy on uncovering and polishing diamonds in the rough.
Oakland fans are allowed to pine for Donaldson—owner of the fourth-highest WAR in baseball last year, per FanGraphs—but they'll also learn to love Graveman.
Mookie Betts, Boston Red sox
7 of 7
In a Boston outfield that was supposed to be a murky mess, Mookie Betts has made one thing abundantly clear: He's ready for the big leagues.
In 45 spring at-bats, the 22-year-old is hitting .467. The only knock might be the three free passes he's drawn, hinting at a lack of patience.
Betts has a soundbite-ready reply, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal: "Can't walk to Fenway."
Verdict: Fact
Cuban import Rusney Castillo and veteran Shane Victorino remain in the mix, along with defensive wizard Jackie Bradley Jr., among others.
Look for Betts to rise above the fray and cement his status as an All-Star-caliber big leaguer and a key cog on a Red Sox team that's aiming to go from first to worst to first.
All statistics current as of March 30 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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