Will Anyone Stop Novak Djokovic from Sweeping Indian Wells and Miami Masters?

With Indian Wells already in his pocket, Novak Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2015 Miami Masters. He has an easy draw, big-match confidence and dominant tools. History comes calling once again, and as usual the only question that matters is if anyone can stop King Novak.

The Indian Wells-Miami double is accomplished when an ATP tennis champion is able to win both big tournaments over the few weeks that open spring. The two tournaments encompass the southern corners of the U.S. through sunny skies, blustery winds and what are usually two of the slower hard-court tournaments on the tour.

The double has been completed nine times since Miami became a premier event in 1985:

Jim Courier 1991

Michael Chang 1992

Pete Sampras 1994

Marcel Rios 1998

Andre Agassi 2001

Roger Federer 2005

Roger Federer 2006

Novak Djokovic 2011

Novak Djokovic 2014

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Furthermore, Djokovic is now in line to repeat Federer’s “double-double,” meaning that they swept Indian Wells and Miami in two consecutive years. Furthermore, a title at Miami would give Djokovic three total years of sweeping the double.

The impressive feat does not stop here. Winning Miami could already crown Djokovic as the greatest player on slow hard courts. He’s not far away from vanquishing the likes of Federer and Andre Agassi for this honor.

It’s the kind of dominance that is now beginning to approach what Federer and Rafael Nadal have accomplished on their very best surfaces, but it still trails by many years. Consider how many titles he has won compared to Nadal on his best surface on clay and to Federer’s past dominance on fast courts:

Federer                          Nadal                                Djokovic

Dubai 7                           Monte Carlo 8                     Australian Open 5

Halle 7                            Barcelona 8                        Indian Wells 4

Wimbledon 7                 Madrid 4 (clay 2009-14)       Miami 4

Cincinnati 6                     Rome 7                              Canada 3

U.S. Open 5                    French Open 9

WTF 6                                          

Rob Griffith/Associated Press

Back to 2015, it’s going to be very difficult for one of the top players to defeat the streaking Serbian.

Federer is sitting out.

Nadal must prove he can defeat top-10 players and has never won Miami. A year ago, Djokovic humiliated the Spaniard with a lopsided final display of blistering groundstrokes.

Andy Murray, a two-time winner at Miami, is very familiar with these courts, having lived and trained at Miami for nearly a decade. However, he has been drubbed by Djokovic in nine of the last 10 matches they have played, including the 2015 Australian Open final and the 2015 Indian Wells semifinals. It’s a tall order for the Scotsman at this point.

Stanislas Wawrinka might be the most likely player to challenge Djokovic on slow hard courts, because it gives him time to wind up his more protracted mechanics. He has the power and pedigree that proves he can beat Djokovic in a big match. However, Wawrinka will need to win against a tougher bottom draw, avoid self destruction and play his best match in the final. Djokovic has proven himself in finals' conditions far more often than Wawrinka

The likelihood is that it will take other factors to defeat Djokovic:

• An injury at this time of the year is very possible. Djokovic is a warrior and will play through anything short of a broken leg, but the past two springs have seen him roll an ankle and hurt his wrist.
• The gusty, coastal winds and humidity could be factors in hurting the Serbian. Murray defeated Djokovic in heavy 2012 U.S. winds to win his first major. Djokovic’s clean ball striking and powerfully precise groundstrokes could become impatient versus the likes of more defensive-minded Murray and Nadal.
• Djokovic might only lose to himself. He is human after all (we think), and, if he is misfiring, could another top player have his best day to pull off the upset? Even the very greatest champions have fallen flat at inexplicable times to an inspired and hot opponent. Tommy Haas did exactly that to Djokovic two years ago at Miami.

Djokovic has to contend with more threatening competitors than Nadal’s clay-court tour in 2008, for example. Everyone’s business must be to win on hard courts, and there is no shortage of dangerous second-tier stars, hungry youngsters and veterans hoping for their own breakthroughs.

It’s not usual to take one player against the entire draw, but right now at Miami, Djokovic looks like the better bet.