25 Bold MLB Predictions for 2015 Season
The easy forecasts are there every single spring.
The perennial dominant pitcher will dominate again. The superstar hitter will hit like a superstar. The loaded team will win its division, and the injury-plagued will get injured.
Even the novice fan can predict those things and be fairly accurate, but it is the fates that are questionable, completely unexpected or totally unfathomable that make us think and talk. They stir up debate and have every chance to be dead wrong as they do to be a surprise hit.
The bold predictions cannot just be pulled out of thin air, though. They have to be thought out and have a certain degree of analysis to back them up. They are not prognostications for the sake of wild prognostications. They actually have some foundation but are just daring enough to start at least a mild uproar.
That is how these 25 predictions came to be. They are not obvious, but they are not wildly unsound. This is opinion mixed with fact and history along with a hefty helping of going out on a limb. And if they were done intelligently, we’ll see some of them come to fruition over the next six months.
Neither World Series Participant Will Make the Playoffs
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Considering the offseasons the champion San Francisco Giants and runner-up Kansas City Royals had, this might not be such an outlandish prediction.
But both World Series teams not making the playoffs the following season has not happened since 2007 when the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers both missed out. Coincidentally, it also happened in 2006 when the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros missed the postseason. But before those two instances, it had not happened since 1991, before the divisional era, when only two teams from each league made the playoffs.
So it is not so common, but it will happen this year.
The Giants will start the season without their second-best offensive player, Hunter Pence, and his fractured forearm could keep him out until May if he is not on the fast track. Aside from him, there are multiple uncertainties in the rotation, including with ace Madison Bumgarner after a season in which he pitched a career-high 270 innings.
That also goes without figuring an arguably better Los Angeles Dodger club that won 94 games and revamped rosters in San Diego and Arizona within the National League West.
As for the Royals, they lost ace James Shields (to San Diego, ironically), and their addition of Edinson Volquez does not inspire much confidence in terms of him being a top-of-the-rotation arm. And their offense again figures to struggle to score and hit for power.
In the American League Central, the Tigers are still the favorite, the White Sox are one of the most improved teams in the league and the Cleveland Indians might have the best rotation on the junior circuit. None of that bodes well for the Royals returning to the postseason—especially considering they outperformed their Pythagorean record by five games in 2014.
Fenway Park Boos Pablo Sandoval
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Although he's just 28 years old, Pablo Sandoval is a hitter on the decline.
The Boston Red Sox, possibly blinded by Sandoval’s incredible postseason showcase last October, made him one of their major acquisitions this past offseason, committing five years and $95 million. This despite Sandoval’s OPS-plus dropping from 155 to 123 to 116 to 111 over the last four seasons and his OBP falling from .357 to .342 to .341 to .324 in the same time frame.
Sandoval is also prone to prolonged slumps, like when he started last year hitting .177/.262/.302 over his first 26 games or when he finished it hitting .218/.274/.276 over his last 24.
Fortunately, Sandoval was somewhat insulated in San Francisco, a major city but a tame media market. It’s a different beast in Boston, and that lack of production will not fly.
And Red Sox fans will let him know it.
Kris Bryant’s Delayed Promotion Will Prompt Grievance
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This thing has been simmering for a while now. Super agent Scott Boras has already expressed his displeasure and the players’ union previously filed a grievance regarding the delayed ascent of another Chicago Cubs prospect, Mark Grace.
The Cubs will send Kris Bryant back to the minors to start the season in order to delay his eventual free agency. Retaliation will come in the form of a grievance.
Boras told Bob Nightengale of USA Today:
"You are damaging the ethics and brand of Major League Baseball. Kris Bryant has extraordinary skills. Kris Bryant is a superstar. He has distinguished himself from all players at every level he's played.
Everybody in baseball is saying he's a major-league player ready for the big leagues. I have players call me. Executives call me. The Cubs' people want him there. Everyone says, 'They cannot send this guy down.' It's too obvious.
This isn't a system choice. This isn't a mandate. This is a flat ownership decision. Do they really want to win here?
"
Both sides have amazingly valid stances. The Cubs want as much contractual control over Bryant as possible, and they would achieve that by holding him out of the majors for at least 12 days this season. They keep saying it will be a “baseball decision” and point to Bryant’s defense as a concern despite him completely demolishing the Cactus League.
If that is the case, the Cubs have almost no choice but to keep Bryant in the minors for longer than nine games. If not, they risk a solid argument against them in a grievance, as it is not realistic to say Bryant worked out his defensive issues after eight minor league games.
Leave him there for any longer than 12 days and screaming will commence. The Cubs are going to do one or the other, and the agent and/or the union will fight back.
A grievance in this case might be difficult to win on Bryant’s behalf—winning would mean he attains the full season’s service time—but it could eventually lead to a needed restructuring of the service time rules during negotiations for the next collective bargaining agreement next year.
If that happens, missing out on a couple weeks of Bryant will be worth it in the long run.
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Sonny Gray Wins American League Cy Young Award, Start All-Star Game
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At 25 years old and with one full major league season on his resume, Sonny Gray is ready to lead the Oakland A’s.
Gray broke onto the big league scene in 2013 when he compiled a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings (10 starts), and he followed that up last season with 33 starts, 219 innings and a 3.08 ERA that was ballooned by a 4.64 ERA during 10 of his final 11 starts. But Gray scaled that rookie wall by throwing a complete-game shutout in his final outing of the season.
This year, Gray will not hit that rough stretch and will turn into the ace the A’s saw in him when they drafted him 18th overall in 2011.
ZiPS, via FanGraphs, projects Gray having something of a down year, and far from Cy Young-worthy, maybe based on last season’s unimpressive FIP (3.46, 15th in the AL), strikeouts per nine (7.52, 20th) and WHIP (1.192, 15th).
But Oakland’s cavernous ballpark loves pitchers, and the AL West is not always a haven for offense, thus making Gray’s case for the honors that much more feasible.
Cole Hamels Will Not Be Traded During Season
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It seems incomprehensible that the Philadelphia Phillies would hold on to Cole Hamels for another full season, but not so much so when you figure who is pulling the strings on such a blockbuster deal.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has scoffed at every offer tossed his way since last July, and the offers are not likely to change this July as the trade deadline comes and goes.
That leaves Hamels with possibly the worst team in the majors, even after he has expressed a desire to play for a winner while acknowledging that will not be the Phillies. At 31 years old and about 2,000 innings under his belt come the end of this regular season, Hamels has that much more wear on his tread going into the offseason. And that will continue to diminish his value.
This is a prediction that is likely to come true, but for Hamels’ sake, let’s hope it does not.
Alex Rodriguez Becomes a Significant Offensive Weapon for Yankees
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It would be easy to say A-Rod will fall flat on his finely groomed face this summer, and while that might happen, the New York Yankees need him to be productive. And by the time he settles into the groove of the season and regular playing time, he can become an offensive threat again.
All it will take is one hot stretch during the second half, and Alex Rodriguez can be a significant part of his team’s playoff push.
He will never be his old self, contending for MVP honors or representing his team’s best player. But Rodriguez does not need to be. He just needs to run into 15-20 homers and get on base around 35 percent of the time to be effective.
However, for a 10- to 15-game stretch, A-Rod can be revived. This will presumably come after the All-Star break, after he’s in an everyday kind of rhythm and gets some midseason rest.
So in July or August, it is not impossible for him to run off five or six homers and hit .400. Just when the Yankees need him.
Umpires Will Not Effectively Enforce Current Pace-of-Play Rule
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Pace-of-play concerns and ensuing rule experiments during spring training—now to be implemented in the minor leagues—have been the talk of the new year under new commissioner Rob Manfred. But what we still fail to acknowledge during debates on these potential major league rules is that there is already a pretty good one on the books, and if actually enforced, it might do plenty to remedy extended length of games.
"When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball. Each time the pitcher delays the game by violating this rule, the umpire shall call Ball.The 12-second timing starts when the pitcher is in possession of the ball and the batter is in the box, alert to the pitcher. The timing stops when the pitcher releases the ball.
The intent of this rule is to avoid unnecessary delays. The umpire shall insist that the catcher return the ball promptly to the pitcher, and that the pitcher take his position on the rubber promptly. Obvious delay by the pitcher should instantly be penalized by the umpire.
"
The problem is, this rule is never enforced. Ever. It would make SportsCenter if it were. And if it were consistently enforced, our pace-of-play concerns might be lighter than they currently are.
That is not to say every pitcher fails to deliver the next pitch within 12 seconds with nobody on base. But even with this new focus on time of games and pace of play, major league umpires will continue to ignore Rule 8.04, which is especially relevant now that hitters are required to keep one foot in the batter’s box between pitches, with certain exceptions. Since hitters are expected to be ready, or “alert to the pitcher,” immediately after the previous pitch, that 12-second countdown will be more in play than ever before.
Chances are we will realize most pitchers can deliver the next pitch in fewer than 12 seconds, but when they do not, can we seriously expect an umpire to call them on it by awarding the hitter with a ball, one that could result in a walk? It’s highly doubtful.
Umpires ought to be held to the same standard as players, and that means being scolded and/or fined for not upholding on-field laws as players will be when they fail to adhere to the rules.
George Springer Challenges the Single-Season Strikeout Record
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The Houston Astros' George Springer is a budding star in this game. He has prolific power, and at some point, maybe this season, he is capable of leading the league in home runs. He might even hit 50 in a year as he develops into a better pitch selector.
But right now, he still has poor enough recognition that he will be this season’s strikeout king. Not only that, but he will threaten to break Mark Reynolds’ single-season strikeout record of 223 set in 2009.
Springer struck out 114 times in 345 plate appearances in 2014. That is about a third of the time, and over the course of 600 plate appearances, that kind of rate would have given him around 200 whiffs. But over, say, 650 plate appearances, that total rises to about 216.
As his rookie year stands right now, Baseball-Reference has his 162-game average at 237 strikeouts.
That is enough to garner some unflattering headlines and an unfortunate daily strikeout watch as Springer’s total rises.
Clayton Kershaw Will Not Win the NL Cy Young Award
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It won’t be because he was not good enough to win a third consecutive Cy Young Award and his fourth in five years. It will happen for the same reasons he did not win in 2012, when he was the league’s best pitcher and reigning award winner.
Voters do not like one player to dominate a single award year after year, and there will be a more heartwarming story to vote for, as R.A. Dickey was in 2012.
Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher in the game at this point, might again put up the best resume to win the award in 2015, but it won’t be as good as it was last season when he was historically dominant. He was so good that he also won the league’s MVP award, and deservedly so. But repeating that performance is like asking for the world twice and getting it. Kershaw won’t deliver quite at that level.
That will be just enough to leave the door open for a newcomer and a better story. After all, the media voters don’t like to explain how good a guy is year after year. They get sucked into the good story just like the rest of America.
So who are the candidates to upend a probably deserving Kershaw?
New York Mets ace Matt Harvey is coming off Tommy John surgery, and if he is recovered enough to be a true ace, his numbers accompanied by his journey back from a significant injury could be enough to get him the votes. Plus he is a New York player, and the onslaught of his media campaign will be heavy.
There is also Cole Hamels, a guy pitching on a Philadelphia Phillies team that might be the worst in baseball and is seemingly holding him hostage on a losing team. Hamels finished sixth in voting last season, but it’s possible he can steal some sympathy votes this year, along with earning them if he can repeat what he did in 2014, a year in which his numbers warranted a higher finish in the voting.
Bumgarner is another strong candidate. After leading the San Francisco Giants to last year’s World Series title, he has become a legend among his fanbase. With that October performance fresh in memories, and if he can again put up a sub-3.00 ERA, his October feats might carry over into this year’s voting.
Whoever the winner is, it will not be Kershaw, no matter if he deserves it.
Jose Fernandez Becomes Most Significant Midseason Acquisition
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Sometimes it is not a trade that brings in a player to propel a club to a postseason run. Sometimes it is an in-house gain.
Jose Fernandez will be exactly that for the Miami Marlins. He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the target date for his return is still sometime around the All-Star break.
The Marlins are expected to be in contention at that point, and adding a legitimate ace to the mix could be like engaging the rocket boosters. Fernandez has made 36 career starts in the majors and has a 2.25 ERA and 172 ERA-plus. In other words, over the course of a full season, he is Cy Young Award material.
If he is something close to that when he returns to the rotation, he will push the Marlins into the postseason for the first time since 2003.
Hector Olivera Misses Entire 2015 Season
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The Los Angeles Dodgers made headlines Tuesday when they reportedly agreed to a $62.5 million contract with Cuban infielder Hector Olivera, one of the country's top prospects over the last few years.
However, several outlets, such as Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, have reported that Olivera has an ulnar collateral ligament tear in his right elbow, which could require Tommy John surgery for the 29-year-old second/third baseman.
Add that to the fact that Olivera still has not received a work visa or worked out with the team, and he is already well behind schedule. When he does arrive in the Dodgers organization, he will start in the minors and will have to play his way onto the team’s bench, assuming he remains healthy.
We are betting he does not. Plus, third baseman Juan Uribe hit .311/.337/.440 with a 120 OPS-plus last season to go with good defense, and the Dodgers acquired Howie Kendrick to play second base this season.
That leaves Olivera as more of a long-term plan at one of those positions, so fans might not want to hold their breath on him making his big league debut in 2015.
Michael Pineda: The New Yankee Ace
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The injuries appear to be healed. The balky shoulder is a thing of the past. The Yankees now have a healthy 26-year-old right-hander ready to dominate.
Michael Pineda was a budding ace when the New York Yankees traded for him before the 2012 season, but shoulder injuries kept him off the field until last season, when another shoulder injury limited him to just 13 starts. In that baker’s dozen, though, Pineda posted a 1.89 ERA and 2.71 FIP.
Pineda is healthy now, and he looks great in spring training games. Expect 30 starts out of him in 2015, and for him to be the ace the Yankees need to return to the postseason.
International Signing Bonus Concerns Reveal Real Inequity
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When the Boston Red Sox signed Cuban teenager Yoan Moncada to his $31.5 million signing bonus last month, many pundits in this country—the United States—were up in arms about inequities in the system regarding how amateur players in the U.S. and Canada enter professional baseball in comparison to players from other countries, mainly Latin America and Asia.
American high school and college players have their signing bonuses capped by MLB rules, but teams can sign players like Moncada for exorbitant amounts despite facing possible penalties depending on allotted spending pools. These pundits point out how U.S. amateurs are disadvantaged by the system.
Some of the arguments were misinformed, but what they really showed was how truly clueless some can be when it comes to the actual system inequities.
While it is true that some foreign players can earn far more than American counterparts, contracts like Moncada’s are so rare they actually become truly newsworthy. Before Moncada, and fellow Cubans Yoan Lopez ($8.27 million bonus) and Roberto Baldoquin ($8 million) in the past four months, former Oakland A’s prospect Michael Ynoa was the international market’s biggest bonus baby at $4.25 million before he was bested by Texas Rangers prospect Nomar Mazara’s $5 million bonus in 2011. Both bonuses are regularly surpassed in the amateur draft, where multimillion-dollar bonuses are commonplace.
As a whole, foreign players, particularly those in Latin America, receive smaller bonuses than their counterparts who enter the professional ranks through the draft. And where American draftees are still seen as prospects as 21-year-old amateurs, Latin American players of the same age—Cubans excluded, as they are an entirely different situation—are usually seen as over the hill because foreign players can be signed as young as 16.
But because of Moncada’s deal, the roars that came behind it and the current collective bargaining agreement expiring in 2016, the true international market will start to come to the surface. That is a good thing for players on both sides, as well as for finding a remedy for its flaws.
Now, predicting the fix is a much bolder and murkier endeavor.
Miguel Cabrera Wins the American League MVP Award, Again
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This is considered a “down year” for Miguel Cabrera: a .313/.371/.524 slash line, .895 OPS, a league-leading 52 doubles, 25 home runs, 109 RBI, a 146 OPS-plus and a ninth-place finish in AL MVP voting. He did all of that while dealing with a bone spur in his right ankle, which required offseason surgery.
That is how good Cabrera is.
He was named AL MVP in 2012 and 2013, giving way to Mike Trout last season. And while Trout is undoubtedly the league’s best all-around player, Cabrera is still its best all-around hitter.
This year he is healthy and expects to be ready for Opening Day. That means an even better offensive season from Cabrera, and a third MVP trophy in his last four seasons.
Matt Kemp Will Not Perform at MVP Level
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It was not difficult to find critics who believed the revamped Los Angeles Dodgers front office did not get enough in return for superstar Matt Kemp. But those critics are seeing Kemp in name more so than current ability.
Yes, Kemp’s most recent performance was stellar. He was the best offensive player in baseball after the All-Star break, but he was part of a crowded outfield in Los Angeles and was coming off a mediocre two years—starting with the second half of 2012 and through the first half of last year—filled with injuries and discontent.
He got hot at a good time. The Dodgers traded as high as they thought they could, nabbing underrated catcher Yasmani Grandal in return.
Now Kemp enters a bigger outfield to roam and a more pitcher-friendly park than Dodger Stadium as a member of the San Diego Padres. His projections in Petco Park are not good, though.
ZiPS projects him playing basically a full season (529 plate appearances), which is good, but with only 16 home runs, 71 RBI, a .334 wOBA and 1.5 WAR, the projection system does not peg him to play at a superstar level.
Padre fans are hoping Kemp can retain his elite form from last year’s second half. But they are better off looking to Justin Upton for that. Kemp won’t make it happen.
One of Kansas City’s Big 3 Relievers Will Be Traded
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The bullpen trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland was so dominant, they were actually the top reason the Kansas City Royals won the American League pennant in 2014.
This year, the team as a whole will not be good enough to return to the postseason. This will become fairly evident by the July 31 trade deadline, and even if it is not, general manager Dayton Moore understands he needs a non-bullpen piece to push the team into further contention.
That will lead to moving one of those three relievers at the deadline to another contender in need of relief help.
Davis seems the likeliest to be dealt. He is the only one who can become a free agent after the season—he has two club options remaining—and he will make $7 million this season with a $2.5 million buyout if the Royals decline his next option. That makes him more expensive than closer Holland, who will make $8.25 million in 2015.
The Royals don't want to break up the band, but it will be necessary this summer. Bullpens are the most interchangeable part of a roster, and Moore has bullets in the chamber to replace whomever he chooses to move out.
Troy Tulowitzki Will Get 600 Plate Appearances
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Given Troy Tulowitzki’s recent and extensive injury history, predicting him to finish with at least 600 plate appearances might be the boldest prediction on this list. But we are calling it now.
Tulowitzki made it his mission over the offseason to find a way to keep his body from betraying him, and after five seasons of failing to play 150 games, he'll be durable this year. And the impact will be felt.
Before he was done in by hip surgery last season, Tulowitzki was a legitimate MVP candidate. This year, with a full season of production to pad the resume, he will again contend for the honor and if he does not win it, he will finish in the top five.
This won’t help the Colorado Rockies in the standings too much, but it will spike Tulowitzki’s trade value.
Rob Manfred Will Not Reinstate Pete Rose, But…
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The major league leader in career hits, Pete Rose, sent new commissioner Rob Manfred a formal request for reinstatement earlier this month. Manfred, of course, would not tip his hand just days after receiving Rose’s appeal.
Former MLB Commissioner Bart Giamatti banned Rose from baseball for life in 1989 after an investigation by independent counsel John Dowd found Rose bet on baseball games while managing the Cincinnati Reds. The Hall of Fame has also kept Rose out of its shrine, and Manfred predecessor Bud Selig upheld Rose’s ban throughout his time in the seat.
“I want to make sure I understand all of the details of the Dowd Report and Commissioner Giamatti’s decision and the agreement that was ultimately reached,” Manfred told reporters in Arizona on March 16. “I want to hear what Pete has to say, and I’ll make a decision once I’ve done that.”
“Honestly, I don’t think people should read any disposition into what I’m saying about this,” Manfred continued. “I see it as a really simple thing. He’s made a request. Part of my obligations under the major league constitution is to deal with those requests, and I’ll deal with it.”
The safe prediction—the opposite of our “bold” predictions, I know—is that Manfred will uphold Rose’s ban. This will happen this year mostly out of respect for Selig. Lifting Rose’s ban almost immediately after replacing Selig could be seen as a smack in the mouth to Selig’s legacy. Manfred will not do that.
This is where we insert the “but...” from the headline. While Manfred will respect Selig and keep Rose out of baseball this year, Rose has already been cleared to participate in All-Star Game festivities this year in Cincinnati. That opens the door.
Manfred will push it in the following year when he will actually reinstate Rose. He will be beaten with the question before and during the All-Star break, which will come after he announces to uphold Rose’s current ban, but he will start then to tip his hand. This will be the year we finally see a commissioner open to letting the disgraced star back into baseball.
And that will be followed by reinstatement in 2016.
Blue Jays Will Fire John Gibbons in-Season
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Ever since the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off their blockbuster offseason in which they acquired unwanted star pieces from the Miami Marlins and signed free agent Melky Cabrera along with them, nothing has gone as planned. The team has finished those two seasons far outside the playoff picture and a total of 36 games out of first place (157-167).
This offseason the Jays are again pushing forward, having acquired third baseman Josh Donaldson from Oakland and signing free-agent catcher Russell Martin. But the pitching is still a huge weak spot, and without improving that part of the club, the Blue Jays will again fall well short of the postseason.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos has overseen all of this, but since his position seems to be safe within the organization despite several disappointments, he is likely safe from the accountability of another one. In his defense, however, he has made several highly-lauded moves during his tenure, including both major acquisitions this past offseason.
Manager John Gibbons has also been at the helm for both seasons and starts this one without a contract for 2016, and that fact, along with a fledgling team, will ultimately lead to his demise. Gibbons will be the scapegoat since ownership seems intent on keeping Anthopoulos on board.
Unless an immediate collapse takes place, Gibbons will likely get through July to keep this team in contention. But when the Jays inevitably fall out of it in the second half, expect the rug to be yanked out from under the manager.
At some point, the plan will turn to eliminating someone rather than acquiring new personnel.
Ryan Braun Stays Healthy and Hits .300/30/100
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Staying healthy for an entire season used to be commonplace for Milwaukee Brewers star Ryan Braun, as was being a perennial National League MVP candidate and a safe bet for the Hall of Fame. But that all changed starting in 2013 when Braun accepted his 65-game suspension for his part in the Biogenesis scandal.
Because of the suspension and a hand/thumb injury, Braun played in just 61 games in 2013 and an abdominal and that lingering thumb limited him to 135 games last season. The injuries also sapped his production, as he managed a 113 OPS-plus in 2014, down from 158 in 2012.
But Braun has declared himself healthy with his Cactus League play, and this is a bet that he will remain so—enough to play in at least 150 games. And if we are saying he will be on the field that much in 2015, it might not be so far-fetched to say he will hit .300, hit 30 home runs and drive in another 100. After all, the last time he was healthy and on the field, he did exactly that.
Fans outside of Milwaukee might not believe in Braun anymore after the PED debacle, but it is hard to imagine his skills have eroded so much that he can’t return to an All-Star level if healthy.
The Washington Nationals Win Fewer Than 96 Games
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The Nationals won 96 games last year and claimed the NL East title with a 17-game margin of victory. This season, they are supposed to be better.
And on paper, they are—as long as they're healthy. Adding Max Scherzer to the rotation was huge. And, when healthy, they are set up well at every other position.
The problem is, they are not healthy. Center fielder Denard Span (abdominal surgery), third baseman Anthony Rendon (sprained left MCL) and right fielder Jayson Werth are all unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Those are the team’s Nos. 1, 2 and 3 hitters, along with other ailments up and down the roster.
The injuries, to those three and others, will continue to nag the Nationals all summer, and what was supposed to be a super team will end up settling on being just good—like, 90-93 wins good—despite a rotation that could end up being an all-time great.
Felix Hernandez Finally Gets Some Help
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For six seasons, Felix Hernandez was arguably the most valuable Seattle Mariner. And for the most part, he was a lone star. But still, the Mariners missed the playoffs.
That all changes this year.
King Felix might still be the team’s best and most valuable player, but with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton on the roster for 2015, Hernandez is not alone in pursuing a postseason berth.
And because he finally has an effective supporting cast, the Mariners will return to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Cardinals Regret Trading Pitching Depth
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The Cardinals have a rotation complete with a current ace, a former one and possibly a couple of future ones. But that might not be good enough to return them to the World Series, and if Murphy’s Law is alive in St. Louis, it might make it difficult for them to win even the National League Central.
There are performance and health concerns from the top to the bottom of the rotation, and if either of those issues surfaces, the Cardinals are going to have to scrounge to find solutions. They traded away Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller to get John Lackey—he had a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts with the Cardinals—and Jason Heyward, meaning rotation depth is no longer a luxury.
Health concerns are already surrounding ace Adam Wainwright, as they already do with Michael Wacha. Lance Lynn is the one guy in the rotation with minimal concern, but he did have a career-low .290 BABIP against him last season. If that trends upward, it will hurt his overall production.
As for Lackey, he is a back-end guy, and Carlos Martinez had a 4.45 ERA in seven starts last season. Jaime Garcia and Marco Gonzales are also competing for a fifth spot.
If injuries or ineffectiveness occur, which they are bound to, the Cardinals will regret trading away one of baseball’s luxuries—pitching depth.
The Diamondbacks Boast Baseball’s Scariest Power Trio
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One is an MVP candidate. Another can hit the ball 500 feet—regularly. The other might be the National League Rookie of the Year.
Paul Goldschmidt. Mark Trumbo. Yasmany Tomas.
The Diamondbacks might not have the best team, but if things go according to expectations, Arizona could house the most intimidating power trio in the majors. Goldschmidt hit 19 homers in 109 games last year, and Trumbo hit 14 in 88. Tomas had his power graded at 70 by Baseball America’s Ben Badler.
Assuming relatively good health from this group, balls will fly out of Chase Field with regularity and ease.
There Will Be No Drug- or PED-Related Suspensions
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It seems like forever since we’ve had a season clean of the non-clean, as we even lost Alex Rodriguez for all of 2014 and had an Adderall-related suspension for Chris Davis, which will cause him to miss Opening Day.
This year we are predicting, or at the very least hoping, there are no Biogenesis-like scandals. We are looking forward to no one testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone and not one player violating the league’s drug program for not having a therapeutic-use exemption.
It will be a clean season, at least in terms of players being busted. And for the first time in years, there will be no dark PED or drug cloud hovering over any part of the year.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.
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