Ranking the Top 10 Boom-or-Bust Prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft
Some NFL draft prospects exceed predraft expectations. It could because they were more talented than originally thought, or they’re hardworking and overcame major obstacles. Other prospects fail to meet expectations, and they fall on the wrong side of the boom-or-bust coin flip.
Evaluating talent is hard because the physical upside of a player is not a clean predictor of future success. The mental part of football creates a major chasm for which we cannot completely account for. But we can acknowledge that limitation and hedge our bets based on history and patterns.
Based on film study and NFL combine results, we’ve compiled the 10 prospects in the 2015 draft class who have the most boom-or-bust potential. Their careers could easily be great or inconsequential.
Highly touted prospects fail in the NFL for many reasons. Some cannot improve their talent level enough. Others may struggle off the field too much to stick around. Either way, those are busts.
Booming picks are inevitable as well. Whether selected high in the first round or later on, these players waste little time in making their mark in the NFL. These are quality starters who are integral team pieces.
Every team is looking for booming prospects. Of the next 10 players, who do you think becomes a boom, and who will be a bust? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
10. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
1 of 10
The 2013 Heisman Trophy winner produced many memorable moments throughout his collegiate career. His ability to produce in crunch time is what makes him special. But if he cannot take care of the football more than he did in 2014, he could be a bust in the NFL.
His 18 interceptions in 2014 certainly stick out like a sore thumb. While it is true that Winston had young receivers around him, the bulk of the interceptions came because he didn’t correctly read the defense. Finding roaming linebackers was a major issue for Winston and cannot continue moving forward.
Winston has the traits of a star NFL quarterback. He compares favorably to New York Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning and Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. His ability to extend plays and create big-play opportunities on third down is of the upmost value in the NFL.
Ultimately, the number of turnovers he commits will determine Winston’s career arc. He has the skill of a top-tier NFL quarterback, but he must learn to take more calculated risks.
9. Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
2 of 10
The fearsome pass-rusher from Florida finds himself ninth on the boom-or-bust list after an average combine performance. Dante Fowler Jr. has been projected as high as third overall by draft experts. That seems rich for a player who compares athletically to New England Patriots’ edge-rusher Jabaal Sheard.
Fowler has some intriguing traits. He is relentless, smart and fast. His ability to impact a football game as a defensive weapon isn’t in question.
But he needs to develop his pass-rushing skills before he reaches his potential. He relies too much on his speed off the edge right now, and that doesn’t work as well in the NFL. His hand placement on pass rush moves is ineffective for a potential top-five pick.
If Fowler Jr. lands with the Jacksonville Jaguars with the third pick, his chances of becoming a “boom” pick rise. He’s a solid fit for their open "Leo" position, and he will benefit from one of the best defensive minds in the NFL with head coach Gus Bradley. A more traditional defense that asks Fowler to be a pure 4-3 defensive end may end up being disappointed with his production.
8. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
3 of 10
Former Michigan Wolverines receiver Devin Funchess turned heads at his pro day when he ran an impressive 4.47 40-yard dash. The 6’4”, 232-pound playmaker has the size, speed and fluidity that NFL scouts drool over. But that physical potential brings zero guarantees of success with it.
Funchess had a poor surrounding cast at Michigan. He wasn’t as involved as he should have been based on his talent. That has left him as a piece of moldable clay that needs refinement.
He has the ability to become one of the more dangerous playmakers in the NFL based on his physical traits. But he could also wash away in a few years if he can’t improve his route running, hands and concentration. As a result, he could end up on the “bust” list in a few years.
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7. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
4 of 10
Oregon’s first Heisman Trophy winner almost ended his prolific career with a storybook ending. Quarterback Marcus Mariota accomplished almost everything possible at Oregon, but he still remains a boom-or-bust player. There is always major risk with quarterback prospects, but coming from Oregon’s offense, he is even more a bust candidate.
The numbers for Mariota’s career are astounding. His incredible 66.8 completion percentage and 105 touchdowns are nothing to sneeze at. Even more impressively, he threw just 14 interceptions in three seasons.
Statistics don’t factor in the wide-open receivers and dropped interceptions, though. Mariota greatly benefited from having track stars at receiver throughout his career. His film is littered with screen passes for touchdowns or receivers streaking open 20 yards downfield.
The NFL will be a much tougher challenge for Mariota. He’ll need to show anticipatory skills that he hasn’t displayed yet. His accuracy on intermediate and deep throws needs to be more consistent. If he cannot adjust to the NFL’s speed, his chances of busting are much greater.
6. Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma
5 of 10
The mammoth nose tackle from Oklahoma is sixth on this boom-or-bust list. At 6’5” and 329 pounds, Phillips is a giant who is hoping to become the next Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata. But with only one season under his massive belt as a starter, he’s largely a projection at this point.
Finding elite nose tackles is rare. A 3-4 nose tackle is a premium position because it’s hard to find athletes who are colossal and skilled. Prospects like B.J. Raji, Wilfork and Ngata were all first-round players because teams knew they were hard-to-find prospects.
Phillips has the same potential as those guys, but he also has a low floor. His inexperience is a huge turn-off, since he didn’t dominate at Oklahoma. He logged just 3.5 sacks in two seasons, and a run-stuffing body isn’t exactly Pro Bowl-worthy.
It will take time for the investment on Phillips to pay off. He’s only 21 years old, so patience will be critical as his body develops. If it all comes together for Phillips, he could become a huge draft-day steal when we look back a few years from now.
5. Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
6 of 10
One of the bigger combine “losers” had to be Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson. The former Huskies playmaker was sold as an elite athlete who was capable of moving to the safety if need be. But then the combine came, and he posted average numbers for a linebacker.
The combine shouldn’t be the end-all, be-all for prospects, but the numbers are important for gauging physical upside. To make up for average athleticism, the player must have good instincts. Thompson displayed an innate ability to end up around the ball and pick up fumbles, but he was rarely the one making the big hit.
Getting into proper position against the run is going to be a major test for Thompson. If he can prove that his instincts are solid enough to play outside linebacker in the NFL, he will be a boom prospect. But with his physical measurements, he will bust if his instincts aren’t up to par.
4. Danielle Hunter, DE, LSU
7 of 10
The LSU Tigers defensive end is one of the most enigmatic prospects in the class. Cast in a run-stuffing role along the Tigers front, he was rarely allowed to pin his ears back as a pass-rusher. Then the combine came, and Hunter proved to be a great physical specimen.
Similar to former Tigers edge-rusher Barkevious Mingo, Hunter couldn’t unleash his skill set because of the scheme. His evaluation is tough because it’s hard to grade his level of polish without consistent exposure. That makes him a boom-or-bust player.
Hunter’s projection comes down to his pass-rush ability. He produced just 4.5 sacks in two seasons as a starter, which is a major red flag. He should have been a more disruptive force simply by using his pure athleticism on obvious passing downs.
3. Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
8 of 10
Just as Nebraska edge-rusher Randy Gregory had created some positive momentum, he admitted to testing positive for marijuana at the NFL combine. The parallels between him and Miami Dolphins defensive end Dion Jordan continue to grow as the draft process unfolds. Jordan has struggled to fit in Miami since being picked with the third overall selection in 2013.
One of Jordan’s big issues has been substance abuse. He’s also somewhat position-less right now, and the coaches have no immediate fix in mind. That’s not unlike Gregory now.
Gregory weighed in at a paltry 235 pounds at the combine. He posted impressive numbers, but it’s a fair question to ask whether that athleticism will transfer with a higher weight. His ideal weight would be around 250 pounds so he can battle with NFL linemen.
Even on film, Gregory is polarizing. He went long stretches of games where he’d be invisible. Factoring in his off-field concerns and his on-field inconsistency, Gregory is a major boom-or-bust player.
2. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
9 of 10
The second-biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the 2015 draft is Stanford offensive tackle Andrus Peat. Standing 6’7” and 313 pounds, he has the physical profile of a created player on Madden. He’s quick, strong, smart and explosive.
But on the field, he fails to show aggression and technique. He looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. That’s not what you want to hear about a first-round prospect.
If Peat can turn the switch on and become nasty on the field, his physical gifts can fulfill his truly elite potential. But if he doesn’t, his career could quickly deteriorate. Finding a quality lineman who is nice on the field is impossible. Peat will not be an exception to that.
Wasting such physical gifts would be a shame. In a perfect world, Peat would learn how to strike with his punches more effectively and be willing to bulldoze his opponents into the ground. Without that mindset, though, Peat is more likely to end up as a bust.
1. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
10 of 10
The ultimate boom-or-bust prospect this year has to be Dorial Green-Beckham of Oklahoma. The mercurial receiver has well-documented off-field concerns that have kept him off the gridiron for more than one calendar year. Actions that led to his dismissal from Missouri should be at the forefront of everyone’s minds as the NFL looks to improve its domestic violence stance, among other incidents league-wide.
Green-Beckham has immense on-field talent. It is hard to deny that. He is a physically dominant player who has the tools to become one of the better playmakers in the NFL.
But he has so much baggage that the odds are stacked against him. We’ve seen with Browns receiver Josh Gordon how hard it is for some young men to break old habits. Green-Beckham will have to prove his worth off the field and then on it.
If he stays out of trouble, Green-Beckham still has to become a better football player to succeed. He can dominate stretches of games, but his raw route running and suspect hands are major concerns. To become a “boom” player, he had better get to work.
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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