Projecting Big League ETAs for Baseball's 10 Most MLB-Ready Prospects
One of the worst things about prospects is that they make you play the waiting game. Everyone wants to see them break through, but they're typically ready when they're ready and not a moment sooner.
For a select few prospects, however, that moment is drawing near. So what's say we get to know 10 MLB-ready prospects and when they might reach The Show this season?
Yes, let's. But first, we need to be clear on the ground rules.
Since we're discussing major league ETAs, we're going to disregard guys who are still technically prospects but who have already debuted in the majors. We're also going to disregard guys who are slated to be on Opening Day rosters, because that's too easy.
And though it's not unheard of for guys to jump straight from Double-A or even Single-A to the majors, we'll restrict our focus to the most talented prospects who have made it as far as Triple-A.
We'll go in order of how quickly our 10 guys should make it to The Show in 2015. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
10. Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Though it was on nobody's mind at the time, one thing the untimely passing of Oscar Taveras did was open up a gaping hole in right field for the St. Louis Cardinals to fill.
The Cardinals responded by trading for Jason Heyward, one of baseball's very best right fielders. But had they not done so, the job might have passed to Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty was already regarded as an advanced hitter when the Cardinals drafted him 36th overall out of Stanford in 2012, and he's lived up to that reputation. He hit .295 in each of his first two seasons and hit .288 with a .761 OPS in a full season at Triple-A in 2014.
Piscotty doesn't have much power by corner outfield standards. But his hit tool is definitely a plus, and the general consensus is that he's developed into a solid defender as well. And now that he's 24 with a full year of Triple-A action under his belt, he's really not in need of many more Triple-A at-bats.
But he's likely to get them whether he likes it or not. In addition to being blocked by Heyward in right field, he's blocked by Matt Holliday in left field. An injury to either one of them could certainly result in him getting a call, but it's more likely that the Cardinals will hold off until rosters expand at the end of the year.
ETA: Late 2015
9. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
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They don't make many shortstops like Francisco Lindor. He's a switch-hitter with a good hit tool and speed, and the defensive chops to be a perennial Gold Glover.
That sound you hear now is Indians fans drooling like Homer Simpson. For them, there's both good news and bad news.
The good news is that Lindor's debut is close. He played in 38 games at Triple-A last year, logging 180 plate appearances in the process. That's not a small sample size in the context of the shorter minor league season, so Lindor is definitely close.
The bad news? That's that he showed his bat still needs work, as he hit just .273 with a .695 OPS at Triple-A. And though he's posted a .902 OPS against what Baseball-Reference.com says has been roughly Triple-A-level competition this spring, that's thanks to a power outburst that may not be sustainable.
Take that into account with how Jose Ramirez is no slouch defensively, and the Indians have their excuses to be patient with Lindor.
Odds are he'll be along later in the year, though possibly before rosters expand. As Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer argued, the "perfect scenario" for Lindor would be for him to join the club in August and help the team push for the playoffs.
Sounds doable.
ETA: Late 2015
8. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
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So, we're cheating a bit here. Though Addison Russell has indeed advanced as far as Triple-A, it was in 2013 and it was only for three games.
All the same, Russell's major league-readiness isn't in question. As a true shortstop with one of the minors' best hit tools, the talent is definitely there. And after hitting .360 with a 1.007 OPS against competition notably better than Triple-A quality this spring, Russell should be ready to take Triple-A by storm.
More so than the 21-year-old's readiness, the question is how the Cubs are going to fit him into the mix.
Starlin Castro is at shortstop, after all, and he's pretty solid. And though Cubs boss Theo Epstein told MLB Trade Rumors last year that Russell has the versatility to play anywhere on the infield, he has yet to play anywhere other than short in the minors.
That makes him an iffy candidate for the one position where the Cubs seem to have an opening: second base. The most likely scenario may be the Cubs keeping him at short until they're positive they need a fix at second base. That's when they could start playing Russell there in the minors.
That would put Russell in line to arrive later rather than sooner. He should debut in 2015, but expect it to be no sooner than the dog days.
ETA: Late 2015
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7. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
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Blake Swihart is a switch-hitting catcher with a good hit tool and power and defensive skills that ESPN.com's Keith Law says rival those of Christian Vazquez.
That would be why the 22-year-old is regarded as baseball's best catching prospect. And after logging 18 games at Triple-A in 2014, the path between him and the majors is running out of steps.
The downside is that Swihart still has things to work on. Namely his offense, as he hit an unspectacular .261 with a .659 OPS in 71 plate appearances at Triple-A last year.
The potential bright side, however, is that Swihart may not need much time to get his hitting up to par. He's hit .381 with a 1.006 OPS this spring, and it's been against roughly Triple-A-level pitching.
If Swihart builds on his strong spring by tearing up Triple-A, he'll be out of things to prove in the minors. The question then will be how he's going to get his major league opportunity, as the Red Sox could call on him as an injury replacement, an upgrade over backup catcher Ryan Hanigan or as a roster expansion guy in September.
Swihart stepping in for Hanigan is a safe bet. His all-defense, no-offense style makes him a bit redundant next to Vazquez, and he's an older player with a recent injury history. If the status quo holds, Swihart could be in Hanigan's place by midsummer.
ETA: Mid-2015
6. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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This time last year, Archie Bradley was widely regarded as baseball's best pitching prospect after posting a 1.84 ERA across two levels in 2013. But then the 22-year-old developed an elbow injury early in 2014 and never really got over it on his way to posting a 4.45 ERA across 18 starts.
Bradley did make it as far as Triple-A last year, however, so it wasn't a total loss. And this spring, he's looked like his old self with a 2.38 ERA in 11.1 innings.
Zach Buchanan of The Arizona Republic noted that Bradley's fastball command and curveball action stood out in his most recent appearance. A good sign considering that, as Keith Law highlighted, Bradley had neither of those things in the wake of last year's elbow injury.
Understandably, the Diamondbacks aren't about to overreact. General manager Dave Stewart has said that Bradley doesn't look ready just yet, so a season-opening stint in the minors is in the cards.
It could be a short stay, though. If Bradley retains the fastball command and sharp curveball he's had this spring, he should be able to get back to being something close to his 2013 self. And with Arizona's MLB rotation sorely lacking in quality talent, there's not much blocking him from breaking through.
Bradley's call-up probably isn't imminent, but he should be along before the dog days come.
ETA: Mid-2015
5. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Coming off a 2013 season in which he posted a 2.99 ERA across two levels, Alex Meyer was actually hoping to debut in the majors last season.
That didn't happen. Though Meyer posted a respectable 3.52 ERA in 27 Triple-A starts, he also saw his BB/9 go from 3.7 to 4.4. With the Twins in the midst of another lost season, there was no reason to rush him to the majors.
These days, the status quo is holding. Meyer walked more batters than he struck out this spring, prompting the Twins to option him back to Triple-A. The hope now is that the 6'9" right-hander can achieve the consistency with his delivery that he needs to improve his command.
Whether that will happen is anybody's guess. But what's actually a good guess is that Meyer will debut soon either way.
Meyer's stuff is definitely ready for The Show. His mid- to high-90s fastball also has tons of sink, making it capable of getting ground balls as well as whiffs. He also has an easy plus slider to go with it.
What could further help Meyer is that timing should be less of an issue this year. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are both circling everyday roles in 2016. If the Twins get Meyer some on-the-job training in 2015, they could find things coming together sooner than expected once Buxton and Sano arrive.
The only barrier Meyer may have to cross is the Super Two cutoff, which will come around June. Once it's gone, he should get the call.
ETA: Mid-2015
4. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Henry Owens is different from most of today's top pitching prospects in that he really doesn't have a power arm. He gets by with deception, mainly stemming from the plus changeup he has to complement his low-90s fastball.
This approach has worked wonders for the 22-year-old left-hander so far. He owns a 3.34 ERA in three minor league seasons, and the 44-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio he had in 38.0 Triple-A innings last year suggests his 4.03 ERA was misleading.
Despite his strong track record, Owens never did stand much of a chance of making the Red Sox rotation out of spring training. The 8.74 ERA and 8-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio he's posted certainly haven't helped, lining him up for additional grooming at Triple-A.
But not too much, in all likelihood. Owens really doesn't have too much left to work on, so he should loom large on Boston's radar should it need a replacement starter at any point. And it's beyond likely that the Red Sox will, as their starting rotation is loaded neither with iron men nor with aces.
Expect Owens' debut to come sooner rather than later, potentially in the first month or two of the season.
ETA: Early 2015
3. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
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It might look like Noah Syndergaard has more work to do. He had only a 4.60 ERA in 26 Triple-A starts in 2014, and he followed that up with a 4.91 ERA in three spring training appearances.
But this is a case where appearances are misleading.
The 22-year-old Syndergaard has typical power pitcher stuff in a mid- to high-90s fastball and a curveball and changeup that both flash plus. But he's also no mere thrower, as evidenced by the respectable 2.9 BB/9 he had at Triple-A last year. Factor in a 9.8 K/9, and it's clear that his ERA was inflated a bit by the Pacific Coast League's notoriously hitter-friendly run environment.
So as far as pitching goes, Syndergaard doesn't have much to work on in his return to Triple-A. Ask him, in fact, and he'll say he only needs to work on taking it easy.
“I won’t fall under the pressure that happened last year,” Syndergaard told Dan Martin of the New York Post. “Last year, I was pressing the panic button a little bit because I wanted to get to the big leagues as fast as possible. ... I’m slated to go to Vegas to continue to work on things to get better and hopefully push [Mets GM Sandy Alderson] to make that phone call.”
The call could come pretty quickly. With Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, the Mets rotation is lacking in solid pieces beyond Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. If Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese or Dillon Gee gets injured or hits a well, Syndergaard should be first in line.
ETA: Early 2015
2. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
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Carlos Rodon is less than a year removed from being drafted. Ordinarily, that would make him a laughable long shot to debut in the majors this year.
But Rodon is a special kind of prospect. MLB.com billed the 22-year-old as the "best college left-hander since David Price" when the White Sox drafted him third overall out of NC State, and the team aggressively pushed him to Triple-A before the end of the season.
As of now, there's still a chance that Rodon could crack Chicago's Opening Day roster. The White Sox rotation is wide open thanks to Chris Sale's injury, and Rodon has definitely impressed enough this spring to find himself in consideration for the rotation.
But it seems unlikely that Rodon will actually get the job, as JJ Stankevitz of CSN Chicago has reported that the White Sox don't want Rodon to be a mere temporary fill-in for their rotation. They want him in the rotation when he's good and ready to stay in their rotation, and that could involve a different approach.
In December, White Sox boss Kenny Williams said Rodon was likely to to follow Sale's path to the rotation. Just as Sale was a reliever in 2010 and 2011 before cracking Chicago's rotation in 2012, that's what Rodon could do too. And given both his awesome fastball-slider combo and how well the trick worked with Sale, it's hard to argue with the idea.
Fortunately for Rodon, the writing on the wall says the White Sox would like to begin his major league career sooner rather than later. And with Chicago's pen looking shallow after David Robertson and Zach Duke, there's not much blocking him from getting going.
ETA: Early 2015
1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
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Alright, listen. We all know the name and we all know the story, so let's cut to the chase with an exact date.
April 17.
That's the soonest the Cubs can call on Kris Bryant while also delaying his free agency by a year. And as it's been discussed ad nauseum on this site and everywhere else, that's obviously what the Cubs have in mind as they prepare to start Bryant's season off in Triple-A. They can say it's about his defense, but nah.
But let's look on the bright side, and that's that April 17 most certainly isn't too soon for the hulking 6'5" slugger.
Bryant followed a 1.160 OPS at Double-A with a 1.036 OPS at Triple-A last year and has picked up right where he left off with a 2.031 OPS and nine home runs against better than Triple-A competition this spring. He's shown that his bat is going to be dangerous against all comers.
And as much as everyone wants to see it right away, it will be in the majors soon enough.
ETA: Early 2015
Note: Spring stats courtesy of MLB.com, and are current through Wednesday, March 25. All other stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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