Fantasy Baseball 2015: Projections and Rankings for Top Regression Candidates

Good times rarely last forever. A few MLB breakout stars will learn this the hard way when regression strikes in 2015, hopefully not for fantasy baseball managers paying a premium on draft day.

Remember when Chris Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013? How about Brandon Phillips driving in 103 runs? (He should be thanking Joey Votto rather than arguing the merits of on-base percentage.) Baseball stats rarely follow a linear pattern, instead jumping all over the place.

This means trouble for anybody paying for someone's career year. Rather than pony up for the previous year's star performer, a savvy drafter must locate value by finding this year's breakouts.

Then again, the regular fantasy player is much smarter now than ever before. There's too much valuable data and too many research tools out there to remain blind to warning flags. As a result, these guys' average positions all tend to account for expected regression.

Because of mainstream skepticism, these aren't players to avoid at all costs. Instead, let's temper expectations and determine their reasonable worth based on realistic projections.

POS	Player	POS Rank	Projections
1B/DH	Victor Martinez, DET	No. 12 1B	.305, 18 HR, 88 RBI, 70 R
2B/3B/OF	Josh Harrison, PIT	No. 13 2B, No. 16 3B	.280, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 73 R, 16 SB
SS/OF	Danny Santana, MIN	No. 16 SS	.265, 8 HR, 65 R, 50 RBI, 18 SB
OF	Nelson Cruz, SEA	No. 20 OF	.255, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, 5 SB
OF	Charlie Blackmon, COL	No. 28 OF	.278, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 75 R, 20 SB
OF	J.D. Martinez, DET	No. 39 OF	.270, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 57 R, 5 SB
SP	Johnny Cueto, CIN	No. 12 SP	15 W, 3.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 185 K
SP	Doug Fister, WAS	No. 62 SP	12 W, 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 130 K
RP	Huston Street, LAA	No. 17 RP	32 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 55 K
RP	Zach Britton, BAL	No. 19 RP	34 SV, 3.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 60 K

Todd Frazier, 1B/3B, Cincinnati Reds (Rank: No. 6 3B, No. 62 Overall)

Rob Tringali/Getty Images

Todd Frazier's success certainly didn't materialize from nowhere. After hitting .273/.331/.498 in 2012, he took a giant step backward in 2013. Then he bulldozed forward, again hitting .273 but accompanying it with 29 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2014.

Before 2014, the third baseman had never hit 20 homers or stolen 10 bases during a season. His batting average has also fluctuated over the years, with his career .258 clip serving as a solid starting point for 2015.

While his power won't fall off the map, 20-25 dingers is more probable than pushing 30 again. ESPN's Home Run Tracker classified a dozen of his long balls as "just enough" home runs, and his 17.0 home run/fly-ball percentage also suggests some good fortune.

Yet his biggest regression will come from last year's sudden speed boost. During the previous two seasons, he swiped a combined nine bags in 16 tries.

FanGraphs' August Fagerstrom examined all of Frazier's steals, determining a heavy chunk resulted from pitchers failing to monitor him on first. Check out the link for six GIFs of him catching opponents napping on the mound, which Fagerstrom surmises will change with a better scouting report:

"

On one hand, you’ve got to hand it to Frazier here. He clearly has a knack for recognizing when a pitcher isn’t paying enough attention to him, and more importantly a knack for timing that pitcher up really well. He was given the green light, and he was never afraid to act on it. But I couldn’t help to think, “what happens when the book gets out on this guy and pitchers simply stop letting this happen?”

"

As a result of manager Bryan Price giving the infielder a constant green light, Frazier won't revert back to six steals. However, expect around a dozen rather than 20, essentially making him a more volatile version of Kyle Seager.

Projection: .260/.325/.455, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 76 R, 12 SB

Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (Rank: No. 15 SP, No. 65 Overall)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

When evaluating pitchers, strikeouts is the most important stat to consider. While a pitcher is at the mercy of his supporting cast for wins, ERA and WHIP, nobody can stop him from generating whiffs. You want hurlers with high punchouts and great command.

Strikeout totals are also inflated with hitters willing to sacrifice some for more power and walks. Among starters who threw at least 100 innings last season, 71 generated more than 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). 

Rank	Pitcher	K/9
80	Tom Koehler	7.20
81	Vidal Nuno	7.18
82	James Shields	7.14
83	Jered Weaver	7.13
84	Adam Wainwright	7.10
85	Aaron Harang	7.09
86	T.J. House	7.06
87	Colby Lewis	7.03

Adam Wainwright was not one of them, netting an underwhelming 7.10 K/9 rate. He also got worse as the year advanced, tallying a 6.47 K/9 after the All-Star break with a 3.24 ERA and 3.45 fielding independent pitching (FIP). 

Everything else was great. He recorded a 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 20 victories, but he won't sustain any of those numbers without an uptick in strikeouts. This is all assuming his abdominal injury doesn't keep him out of action.

Wainwright gave a cautiously optimistic report to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold following a strong spring training debut last weekend:

"

I think there is a lot of improvement still to come. Off-speed (pitches) are good. I’m mixing and matching well. But my fastball command has a long ways to go. I missed and caused myself some deeper counts than I wanted several times. Always ways to get better, but that is a glaring need to work on my fastball command.

"

Over the past two years, he has tossed an MLB-high 519.2 innings, including postseason play. Maybe he holds on at least one year longer, but he's at great risk to follow the fallen path of Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Cliff Lee.

Projection: 200 IP, 15 W, 3.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 160 K 

All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs. 

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