Early Predictions for the 2015 Miami Open
Two sizzling weeks of tennis at the BNP Paribas Open are in the books, but there's no time for the top players in the world to catch their breath. It's back to the grind in Key Biscayne at the Miami Open.
Over the next fortnight, the men's and women's stars will battle it out for the last important piece of hardware before the grueling clay-court season begins. And there will be no shortage of drama in the Florida sun.
While the tournament is still a few days away from kicking off main-draw play, now is the time to look ahead and forecast how the action will unfold. Here are some bold early predictions heading into one of the biggest events of the spring.
Ana Ivanovic and Caroline Wozniacki Will Continue Their Slumps
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They may be two of the most recognizable faces on the WTA Tour, but Ana Ivanovic and Caroline Wozniacki are in the midst of an early-season swoon.
Neither player has stepped up in big matches this year, and that trend will likely continue in Miami.
Although Wozniacki won a small tournament in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and made the final in Auckland, New Zealand, she faced a beatdown at the hands of Victoria Azarenka in the second round of the Australian Open and a third-round loss at Indian Wells to teenager Belinda Bencic. In Dubai (UAE), she won only two games over the final two sets in the semifinals against Simona Halep. Ouch.
Wozniacki has taken a step back after her thrilling run to last year's U.S. Open final, and she'll need more time—and maybe a change of surface—before her momentum turns around. Though she's made three quarterfinals and one semifinals appearance at the tournament, her current form suggests another deep run is unlikely.
Like Wozniacki, Ivanovic is fighting through her own on-court blues. The sixth-ranked player started 2015 with a strong runner-up showing in Brisbane, but she's flatlined since then, suffering a first-round loss at the Australian Open and third-round losses at Dubai and Indian Wells.
In Miami—where she's never advanced past the fourth round—Ivanovic is in a loaded quarter of the draw with Serena Williams, Garbine Muguruza, Sara Errani and Sabine Lisicki. Barring a sudden improvement from the Serbian, expect her to come up short in the Florida heat.
Grigor Dimitrov Will Suffer Another Early Loss
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Continuing the trend of players on a cold streak, here's the poster child, Grigor Dimitrov.
Much was expected of the 23-year-old Bulgarian entering this season, especially after he stormed into the Wimbledon semifinals last year and captured three titles. But he's taken a step backward and fallen behind his peers, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori.
Dimitrov is just 8-5 this season, and he's failed to win more than one match at his last three tournaments (Rotterdam, Netherlands; Acapulco, Mexico and Indian Wells). After a January drudging to Roger Federer in Brisbane and a nervy defeat to Andy Murray at the Australian Open, the world No. 11 is struggling to find rhythm and confidence.
He won't have much breathing room in Miami as Juan Martin del Potro looms as a potential opening-round opponent. If he survives that tough test, Dimitrov would likely face John Isner for the chance to play Milos Raonic. Based on his recent results, it's tough to see Dimitrov outlasting those three sluggers.
Madison Keys Will Make the Semifinals
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There's no bigger rising star in women's tennis than Madison Keys, and the young American will continue her ascent this week.
Keys, a native of Illinois who grew up in Boca Raton, Florida, will be right at home in Miami. The sweltering sun and fast conditions should only enhance her already big game.
When watching Keys play, it's easy to become mesmerized by her effortless power off the ground and on serve. With the help of new coach and former Grand Slam champion Lindsay Davenport, the 20-year-old is tuning her skills and developing patience. That's bad news for the rest of the field.
Just two months removed from her breakthrough run to the Australian Open semifinals, Keys will unleash another impressive display at this event. Though she's buried in a tough section of the draw with Sloane Stephens, Lucie Safarova, Eugenie Bouchard and Simona Halep, there's no doubt Keys has the talent to shine and race to a potential showdown against Serena Williams.
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Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic Will Duel in a Thrilling Quarterfinal Match
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Outside of Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer or Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal, there may not be a more exciting rivalry at the moment in men's tennis than between these two young stars.
Kei Nishikori, 25, and Milos Raonic, 24, have cemented their status as Top 10 players within the last year. They're no longer prospects; instead, they're legitimate threats to win any tournament they enter.
Nishikori, who won four events last year and surged to the U.S. Open final, is off to another hot start in 2015 with a title in Memphis and an 18-4 record. The Japanese star plays like a smaller version of Djokovic, utilizing exceptional foot speed, baseline prowess and touch to pester opponents.
Last year in Miami, Nishikori took out Federer in a thrilling quarterfinal match. An injury forced him to withdraw before his semifinal date against Djokovic, but these courts suit him well, and the fifth-ranked player should have no trouble booking a spot in another quarterfinal.
There, he would likely face his top rival, Raonic. The two have played six times since last May, with Nishikori holding a 4-2 edge in those matches. But their last five encounters have gone the distance.
Raonic owns possibly the biggest serve in the world and an equally imposing forehand, and he's starting to put the other pieces of his game together, as evidenced by his upset of Nadal last week at Indian Wells. Against Nishikori, however, that power is tested by one of the best defensive players in the world. Their duels play out like cat-and-mouse affairs, and they should treat fans to another epic spectacle in Miami.
Serena Williams Will Not Repeat as Champion
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Serena Williams was under the microscope last week at Indian Wells after ending her 14-year boycott of the event.
She fought through painful memories, nerves and tough matches against Monica Niculescu and Sloane Stephens to secure a berth in the semifinals. A triumphant and cathartic run to a title seemed imminent.
Then Williams pulled a stunner and decided to walk over before her semifinal match against Simona Halep. Citing inflammation in her knee which had bothered her throughout the tournament, the 33-year-old left with her Miami participation in doubt.
As of now, it sounds like Williams will give it a go in Key Biscayne, where she's won seven titles and is the current two-time defending champion. When healthy and at the top of her game, there's probably no one who can beat her at the tournament. But she's compromised physically and likely emotionally drained from her return to Indian Wells, leaving her ripe for an upset. She'll need more time to get back to full strength before the French Open in late May.
Rafael Nadal Will Make Another Deep Run but Fall Short
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Could the fifth time be the charm?
Rafael Nadal certainly hopes so, and he'll attempt to win the Miami crown for the first time in his career after runner-up finishes in 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014. He's come close on so many occasions, but the Spaniard has yet to bite the trophy.
He's not exactly a slouch at the tournament, yet the fast courts here have never really accentuated his game. Against Novak Djokovic in last year's final, Nadal was given a rare straight-sets whipping and looked overmatched against his rival.
Lately, Nadal has been on a quest to get back to his old form after injuries sidelined him for most of last summer and fall. After bad early-season losses in Doha, Qatar, and Melbourne, he clinched his first title of the year in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and gutted his way to the semifinals last week at Indian Wells, where he lost to Milos Raonic in a tight three-set duel.
While that defeat surely stung, Nadal is slowly creeping back into top tennis shape. In Miami, expect him to continue that resurgence but ultimately fall short. He should have enough juice to make the semifinals, where he'd likely play Andy Murray. It's just tough to see him outlasting Djokovic.
Maria Sharapova Will Finally Win Her First Miami Title
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If you think Rafael Nadal's luck in Miami is bad, try talking to Maria Sharapova.
The world No. 2 has finished runner-up at the event five times (2005-06, 2011-13), losing to different women each occasion. The fact she's reached that stage so often is a testament to her attacking style and comfort on these courts. Yet she's never been able to get over the hump.
Now is the opportune time for her to end that drought. With her top rival Serena Williams nursing a knee injury and Petra Kvitova sitting on the sidelines, the title is there for the taking. Who better than Sharapova to be the one to grab it?
Her path to the quarterfinals is blocked by players like Caroline Garcia, Karolina Pliskova and Shuai Peng, but the Russian should hit her way past of all them. Her stiffest test before the finals may be against underrated Ekaterina Makarova, and if she survives that potential matchup, Sharapova will be the favorite to reach the championship bout.
Who she'll face is mystery, but she's well-positioned to finally lift the trophy.
Novak Djokovic Will Win His Second Straight Indian Wells-Miami Double
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Few players in history have ever won the Indian Wells-Miami double, and none have accomplished the feat three times. That could change if Novak Djokovic has his way.
After grinding out a win Sunday against Roger Federer for the Indian Wells title, Djokovic is hungry to defend his title in Key Biscayne and keep his foot on the pedal in the race for No. 1.
He won both events last year and in 2011, and he'll try to double-dip at them for a third time. Djokovic has captured four Miami titles overall in his illustrious career—including three of the last four—and he'll be extremely difficult to unseat this year.
At age 27, he's in the absolute prime of his career and is the undisputed king of the hard courts. On this surface especially, Djokovic's flexibility, quickness and shot-making make him truly peerless. Many will try, but it's unlikely anyone will knock him off his perch.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com and WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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