Early 2015 MLB Comeback Player of the Year Odds Based on Spring Action
Spring training stats don't always mean much, but for a player looking to put together a bounce-back season, a strong preseason can be a big first step.
With that in mind, potential Comeback Player of the Year candidates are often among the most interesting to follow during the course of spring training.
What follows is a look at five candidates in each league who are having solid springs and their odds of taking home the award for the upcoming season.
Also included is an overview of some other notable candidates in each league and how they're performing, but the focus here is on players who have been impressive so far this spring.
Other Potential Comeback Players of the Year Candidates (AL)
1 of 12
OF Allen Craig, BOS: 10 G, 8-for-30, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, 3 BB, 11 K
RF Shin-Soo Choo, TEX: 6 G, 4-for-18, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K
1B Chris Davis, BAL: 11 G, 6-for-29, 1 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 R, 4 BB, 8 K
3B Manny Machado, BAL: 11 G, 8-for-34, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K
SP Justin Masterson, BOS: 4 GS, 12.1 IP, 12 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 5 K
SP Ricky Nolasco, MIN: 3 GS, 8.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
CF Colby Rasmus, HOU: 8 G, 2-for-15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, 7 BB, 3 K
SP CC Sabathia, NYY: 1 GS, 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
C Geovany Soto, CWS: 10 G, 7-for-21, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 5 BB, 2 K
C Matt Wieters, BAL: 7 G, 0-for-23, 1 BB, 4 K
Odds for the Field: 3/2
DH Alex Rodriguez
2 of 12
Spring Stats
11 G, 7-for-26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 4 BB, 5 K
Player Overview
It remains to be seen if the voters would even consider voting for Alex Rodriguez for Comeback Player of the Year considering what he's coming back from is a season-long suspension.
That being said, the 39-year-old has looked better than expected this spring, and with his $22 millions salary, the New York Yankees will give him every chance to make an impact.
The veteran enters the season needing 61 hits to reach 3,000 for his career and seven home runs to pass the great Willie Mays and move into fourth place on the all-time list.
Odds: 25/1
SP/RP Barry Zito
3 of 12
Spring Stats
4 G, 11.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Player Overview
Barry Zito wrapped up the massive seven-year, $126 million contract he signed with the San Francisco Giants in 2013, going 5-11 with a 5.74 ERA over 133.1 innings of work.
The left-hander opted to sit out last season as a recharging of sorts, and now the 36-year-old is back where it all started in camp with the Oakland Athletics.
He's still a long shot to make the Opening Day roster, but if he can carve out a role as a long reliever and make a handful of solid spot starts, he could be a dark horse for the award.
Oftentimes, Comeback Player of the Year is as much about the story behind the comeback as it is about the actual numbers, and his story is a good one.
Odds for Zito: 10/1
DH Kendrys Morales
4 of 12
Spring Stats
15 G, 15-for-46, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 2 BB, 10 K
Player Overview
Saddled with a qualifying offer last offseason, Kendrys Morales went unsigned until he joined the Minnesota Twins on June 8, as teams were not willing to give up a draft pick to sign him.
All told, he saw 367 at-bats last season, splitting the year between Minnesota and Seattle, and he hit .218/.274/.338 with eight home runs and 42 RBI.
Just a year removed from a solid season in Seattle that saw him post a .785 OPS with 34 doubles and 23 home runs, Morales will now be tasked with replacing Billy Butler as the Kansas City Royals' everyday designated hitter.
The 31-year-old signed a two-year, $17 million deal in the offseason.
Odds: 7/1
SP Derek Holland
5 of 12
Spring Stats
1 GS, 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Player Overview
A freak offseason knee injury and the subsequent surgery limited Derek Holland to just 37 innings of work last season, as he did not make his season debut until Sept. 2.
He finished the year strong, posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearances, but it was essentially a lost season for the left-hander.
With ace Yu Darvish lost for the season to Tommy John surgery, Holland will now be asked to lead the rotation alongside newcomer Yovani Gallardo.
The 28-year-old was 10-9 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.286 WHIP and 189 strikeouts in 213 innings in 2013.
Odds: 6/1
1B Prince Fielder
6 of 12
Spring Stats
9 G, 6-for-23, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 R, 1 BB, 1 K
Player Overview
The Texas Rangers took a real chance when they shipped Ian Kinsler to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Prince Fielder and $30 million.
Fielder had been one of the league's most consistent run producers, but even with the $30 million thrown into the deal, the Rangers were still on the hook for $138 million over seven years.
Unfortunately, a neck issue and eventual surgery limited Fielder to just 42 games in his first season in Texas. That ended a streak of eight seasons with at least 157 games played.
The 30-year-old is "happy and healthy" heading into 2015, according to B/R National Columnist Scott Miller, so he could be in for a big rebound.
Odds: 4/1
Other Potential Comeback Players of the Year Candidates (NL)
7 of 12
SP Brett Anderson, LAD: 3 GS, 6.2 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
SP Brandon Beachy, LAD: N/A
RF Jay Bruce, CIN: 9 G, 5-for-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3 R, 0 BB, 8 K
SP A.J. Burnett, PIT: 3 GS, 8.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 7 K
SP Matt Cain, SF: 2 GS, 3.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
LF Michael Cuddyer, NYM: 10 G, 9-for-27, 2 2B, 4 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R, 1 BB, 3 K
SP Jaime Garcia, STL: 3 GS, 9.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 13 K
2B Jedd Gyorko, SD: 11 G, 6-for-30, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R, 1 BB, 14 K
RP Jim Johnson, ATL: 3 G, 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
SP Brandon Morrow, SD: 4 G, 12.2 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
RP Clayton Richard, PIT: 3 G, 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
SS Jean Segura, MIL: 11 G, 6-for-28, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 R, 2 BB, 7 K
SP Travis Wood, CHC: 4 GS, 14.1 IP, 21 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS: 10 G, 7-for-29, 2 2B, 4 RBI
Odds for the Field: 2/1
SP Jason Marquis
8 of 12
Spring Stats
4 GS, 14.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 8 K
Player Overview
Jason Marquis has been one of the better stories of spring training this year.
The 36-year-old spent the bulk of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, returning to make nine minor league starts in the Philadelphia Phillies organization.
Now, it looks as though he'll break camp with a spot in the Cincinnati Reds rotation after signing a minor league deal with the team in the offseason.
Marquis last pitched in the majors for the San Diego Padres in 2013, going 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA (5.65 FIP) over 20 starts.
With Homer Bailey still on the comeback trail from offseason elbow surgery and Tony Cingrani ticketed for the bullpen, Marquis looks to have a good chance of being this year's Chris Young.
Odds: 12/1
SP Wandy Rodriguez
9 of 12
Spring Stats
4 GS, 13.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 12 K
Player Overview
Another pitcher in camp on a minor league deal who looks set to break camp with a rotation spot, Wandy Rodriguez appears to have a spot in the Atlanta Braves rotation all but locked up.
"The way he’s pitched, he’s earned a shot in this rotation,” manager Fredi Gonzalez told reporters, per David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
After battling a forearm strain and making just 12 starts in 2013 (6-4, 3.59 ERA), Rodriguez struggled mightily last season.
The 36-year-old posted a 7.65 ERA over his first four starts, then landed on the disabled list with a knee injury. He returned to make two more starts before the Pittsburgh Pirates released him on May 30, and he sat out the rest of the 2014 season.
Odds: 12/1
RF Carlos Gonzalez
10 of 12
Spring Stats
8 G, 8-for-19, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K
Player Overview
Carlos Gonzalez entered the 2014 season working on a streak of four consecutive 20/20 seasons, as he hit .311/.370/.556 and averaged 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 22 stolen bases during that span.
Injuries put a stop to that streak, though, as he played just 70 games last season before undergoing season-ending knee surgery on Aug. 19.
Aside from the knee problems, he also missed 35 games early in the season after having a growth removed from one of his fingers.
The end result was a career-worst .238/.292/.431 line over 260 at-bats and a minus-0.7 WAR season. Assuming he's healthy once again, there's no reason the 29-year-old can't bounce back.
Odds: 7/1
1B Joey Votto
11 of 12
Spring Stats
7 G, 3-for-13, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, 5 BB, 5 K
Player Overview
Joey Votto is one of the best hitters on the planet when healthy, but he was far from that in 2015.
From 2009-13, the first baseman hit .318/.431/.548 and averaged 38 doubles, 26 home runs and 86 RBI. His 30.3 WAR over that span ranked fifth among all position players.
However, a pair of quad strains cost him 99 games last season, as he hit .255/.390/.409 with six home runs and 23 RBI in 220 at-bats.
The 31-year-old is healthy heading into the 2015 season, and he will once again be asked to be the driving force in the middle of the Cincinnati Reds lineup.
Odds: 5/1
SP Matt Harvey
12 of 12
Spring Stats
3 GS, 8.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Player Overview
Chances are Matt Harvey won't immediately bounce back to his 2013 form, but even with some rust to shake off, he still looks like the favorite to take home NL Comeback Player of the Year honors.
The 25-year-old was a breakout star in 2013, going 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA, 0.931 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 178.1 innings, but his season ended in Tommy John surgery.
With an entire year to recover and no limitations this spring, he's looking to once again take his place among the game's best arms.
"He needs to build up his pitch count a little bit. But, stuff-wise, yes, he's ready for the regular season," manager Terry Collins told reporters after his last start, per Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. "We haven't seen any change in command since he walked back out on a mound."
Odds: 3/1
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
