What Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal's 2012 Indian Wells Match Shows Us About 2015

Whether or not Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal clash once again for the 2015 Indian Wells semifinals, there are certainly curious parallels to 2012.

Yes, Federer must overcome Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, which is no easy task given the Czech’s 5-4 head-to-head record against the Swiss Maestro since 2010.

Of course Nadal will have his reflexes tested against cannon-server Milos Raonic in his quarterfinal match. He’s 5-0 in his head-to-head results, but just how far off is Nadal from his championship form?

Whether or not tennis fans get chapter No. 34 in their storied rivalry, reading the tea leaves is remarkably similar to their summit meeting three years ago, the last time Federer was the victor.

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Back to 2012

Indian Wells semifinals 2012 pitted No. 2 Nadal vs. No. 3 Federer, each of them wearing shades of blue. Nadal, perhaps still recovering from the physical toll and crushing disappointment of losing an epic marathon Australian Open final to Novak Djokovic, came into Indian Wells rested but rusty. He had not competed since that final, and he looked shaky in slipping past talented David Nalbandian.

Federer was in better form, having ripped off 37 wins in 39 matches including five titles. He had mostly dominated very fast courts, so there were still a few reservations about how he would stack up against Nadal on an outdoor court, especially the more sluggish surface at Indian Wells.

The match was delayed a few hours because of rain, and then the wind played havoc on Nadal’s topspin, neutralizing its bite and playing shorter than usual. Nadal explained in ATP World Tour:

"

... the crazy wind [made it ] very difficult for me to play with a clear tactic. I lost court, I had more mistakes, and I think he played very aggressive. He played fantastic. His serve was with high percentage, and I wasn't able to play my usual tactic against him with that conditions. He hit the balls, every one inside the court, and the weather conditions makes the topspin more difficult for me.

"

For his part, Federer was aggressive and clean with his strokes, attacking Nadal’s erratic backhand. Furthermore, Federer stepped in and picked up his own backhands, rarely allowing the ball to play high and pin him into the corner. He had plenty of pop and masterful timing to close out a 6-3, 6-4 victory, even as rain delayed his match point. Federer closed it out with a statement ace.

Beating Nadal was the key in Federer closing out the title against John Isner. It was part of an excellent streak that saw him win on Madrid’s blue clay and the 2012 Wimbledon title, launching him to a record-breaking stint at No. 1, surpassing 300 weeks. Would this surge have been completed had he not knocked out Nadal?

Nadal battled a nagging knee injury and gave Andy Murray a walkover at Miami’s semifinals a couple of weeks later. He would then go on an undefeated red-clay terror, ripping through Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and the French Open before his inexplicable crash at Wimbledon.

Nadal and Federer had continued to find paydirt at the expense of the other’s troubles.

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Parallel World 2015

Federer arrived at Indian Wells once again as the Dubai winner, holding the No. 2 ranking. He has been a bigger winner than Nadal since 2014 Wimbledon. His potential showdown and ultimate success in the next few days could go a long ways in setting the tone for this spring and summer.

Can Federer produce an encore of 2012? Is he the favorite despite his career matchup troubles with his Spanish rival? He has honed his aggressive offense with increased emphasis on attacking the net and shortening points. Federer’s best tennis these days is crisp and clear, like 7-Up, pure, sparkling and ready for service.

This time around, Nadal played in February, but was hardly a world beater. He has been better this past week winning each time in straight sets, including a strong win against Gilles Simon, one of the hotter under-the-radar players on the ATP tour since the U.S. Open. His serve is spotty at times, but his groundstrokes have had more depth.

He’s not there yet and questions still abound for him to defeat top-10 talent. Can he grind out a long match? Will he be able to break Raonic’s serve just to get to Federer?

Nadal’s preparations for his annual clay-court imperial march could really take off with a few more wins at Indian Wells. It won’t be easy, but nobody should ever count out Nadal.

Two quarterfinals matches are still to be played, but already there are stirrings that the semifinals at Indian Wells could be a harbinger of some great things ahead for at least one of these two great champions.