Strikeforce's Carano-Cyborg Wins Ratings War, But Was It a Pyrrhic Victory?

Thousands of years ago, King Pyrrhus fought against Roman legions, achieving victory in two separate battles.

However, Pyrrhus lost so many troops that his victories in battle were at the cost of eventually losing the war.

In what only seems like ages ago, EliteXC's final show ended with Seth Petruzelli knocking out Kimbo Slice in front of a large CBS audience.

The show was a huge ratings success.

However, the loss of Kimbo as a legitimate fighter, among other things, resulted in the eventual destruction of EliteXC.

The high CBS ratings were, in essence, a Pyrrhic victory.

There's been a lot of news recently about who won the ratings war between the replay of UFC 100 and Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg.

A simple comparison of numbers isn't really fair because Spike TV, playing the UFC replay, is available in approximately 100 million homes, while Showtime has approximately 20 million subscribers.

Some people, including journalists like Dave Melzer and Strikeforce and Showtime executives, have been spinning the average of 576,000 viewers as a big victory.

Others point to the UFC 100 replay viewership of two million as a sign of UFC's triumph.

What most MMA analysts are ignoring is that these ratings numbers tell very little about the future of Strikeforce.

The ratings for the Strikeforce card must be considered good, as they were double those of the last big Strikeforce card on Showtime.

Furthermore, they surpassed Showtime's MMA record numbers from Kimbo Slice's bout against Tank Abbot.

But a positive trend in numbers isn't going to keep Strikeforce alive by itself. Ultimately, Strikeforce will only achieve greater success if the product remains in high demand.

So let's look at what happened to the product.

The big draw of the night, as indicated by a big ratings peak, was the Carano vs. Cyborg fight.

The biggest drawing fighter, Gina Carano, lost decisively, and it remains to be seen if she will be able to remain a drawing power in the future.

While people like Dave Melzer have pointed out that UFC stars have remained marketable after a loss, there are limits to that idea—especially when a fighter loses while they are still unproven.

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos also remains a marketing question mark. She doesn't speak English, is not American, and perhaps lacks the visual appeal of Carano.

So when considering the good ratings for the Strikeforce card, you must realize that while the ratings were good, the price Strikeforce paid may have been some of Gina Carano's future marketability.

Ultimately, I think it would have served Strikeforce far better to have slightly weaker ratings, with more positive results from a promotional perspective.

For example, a winning Kimbo Slice was ratings gold. People are only going to be interested in seeing him lose or fight poorly so many times.

But let's consider the rest of the Strikeforce card.

Gegard Mousasi put on an impressive performance, but it remains to be seen if he will be a major draw for Strikeforce, especially when there are few other elite fighters in his weight class outside of the UFC.

Furthermore, he is tied up with Dream's Super Hulk tournament and may not be able to fight for Strikeforce again until 2010.

Fabricio Werdum won in a highly expected fashion, yet did little to show that he will be able to provide an interesting challenge for Fedor Emelianenko.

Gilbert Melendez also did very well but also is unproven as a ratings draw.

Overall, the fighter marketability levels for Strikeforce may have only increased slightly, while the promotional value of its biggest draw, Carano, may have dropped significantly.

Meanwhile, UFC 100 showcased a proven draw in Brock Lesnar, as he notched a dominating victory over Frank Mir.

Furthermore, Dan Henderson's brutal knockout of Michael Bisping will surely help build hype for Dan Henderson's likely rematch with Anderson Silva.

If Strikeforce is to succeed in the future, not only will it need to garner a large audience, but it will also need to build up the value and marketability of its fighting roster and of upcoming potential fights.

Strikeforce capitalized on hype for Carano vs. Cyborg that had been building for over a year. They don't have many more of those matches available to waste.

Even if Strikeforce can put together a few more fights with good ratings, unless those fights lead to new marketable matchups, the good ratings will be nothing more than Pyrrhic victories.