MLB's 5 Most Underrated Rotations in 2015
Unlike a decade and a half ago, only the rare slugging specimen resembles He-Man. These days, Major League Baseball puts pitchers on the marquee, and there are plenty to share top billing.
Clayton Kershaw. Max Scherzer. Felix Hernandez. This list is long, and the guys on it have earned their spot through years of domination as the featured arms during these Years of the Pitcher, so much so that new commissioner Rob Manfred is even trying to come up with ways to halt their reign.
As the 2015 season approaches, pitchers will get the big, shiny headlines. But not all of them. There are those still flying low enough to escape radar detection.
And there are still groups, known as rotations, doing the same thing. Sure, maybe they are high enough that the general baseball-watching public recognizes the ability is there, but as a unit, there are still a handful of rotations that do not get their deserved recognition.
For reasons ranging from not enough big names to being part of a team that hasn’t won enough recently to being recently forgotten because of injuries to not having household names, these are the game’s top five underrated rotations, from least underrated to most.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
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When a team’s payroll is so high that it can’t even see the $200 million mark in its rearview mirror, it is hard to be considered underrated. And when an ace is coming off a season in which he was the league MVP, it is again nearly impossible to call his rotation underrated.
But the Dodgers are just that when it comes to their five starting pitchers.
Clayton Kershaw is the ace of aces at this point in his career, and Zack Greinke is an outstanding No. 2 and possibly the ace of most other rotations. Still, because of the relative obscurity and a thick injury history, the bottom three of Los Angeles’ rotation seems to get overlooked and can keep this group from being seen as one of baseball’s top three.
Make no mistake: it is. Last season, the top three—Kershaw, Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu—combined for a 14.6 WAR (Fangraphs) in 85 starts, and both totals were limited because of injuries to all three. Consider that the Washington Nationals’ heralded trio of Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg had a 15.1 combined WAR over 99 starts, and you start to see just how dominant that first three can be for the Dodgers.
But the final two guys—Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, we expect—have big health concerns surrounding them. McCarthy averaged 22 starts a season from 2011-13, but last year between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees, he made 32, pitched 200 innings for the first time in his career and gave the Yankees a 2.89 ERA over 14 turns, which he attributed to being able to throw his cutter more often.
As for Anderson, since his promising rookie season in 2009, he has made a total of 51 starts over the previous five. Needless to say, he is an injury risk. But the Dodgers are hoping to get a start total in the 20s and something around the 2.91 ERA, 2.99 FIP and 147 ERA-plus he showed last season with the Colorado Rockies, though those numbers came in just eight starts because of a fractured finger and a bulging disk in his back.
If this rotation remains relatively healthy in 2015, it has the potential to be the best in the National League, which includes the Nationals.
4. Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox made a huge splash during the offseason, and one of the biggest reasons for that was their trade for Jeff Samardzija. While the 30-year-old right-hander is not quite an ace, he is a certifiable No. 2 and in an ever-important contract year.
Paired with ace Chris Sale, who finished third in American League Cy Young Award voting last season, the White Sox suddenly have one of the best one-two rotation tops in the game, although that has not been enough for many pundits to think they can upend the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central despite the Tigers losing Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello from their rotation.
It’s not just the first two guys in the group that can bring it, though. Jose Quintana, 26, has become an effective, reliable arm after three seasons. Over the last two years, Quintana has compiled nine wins above replacement—FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference agree on this one—and that total is good for eighth in the league, giving him a stellar argument for being the game’s most underrated starter.
The problem with this rotation starts after Quintana, though. There is not a ton of quality to choose from, but there is some potential and upside with 25-year-old Erik Johnson, a second-round pick in 2011. Johnson had put up strong numbers through the minors, including in 10 starts at Triple-A Charlotte in 2013 (1.57 ERA), but he struggled last season at Charlotte in 20 chances (6.73 ERA) and then in five starts with the White Sox (6.46 ERA). But if he can find his 2013 form again, he could develop into a solid back-end arm.
Carlos Rodon has the highest ceiling, and the White Sox would love for him to start reaching for it at the major league level this season. Rodon, 22, was the third overall pick in 2014 and had a 2.96 ERA through three minor league levels last year, including a 3.00 ERA in three starts with Charlotte.
If Rodon can continue to roll through the minors—his control is the central issue, as he had 13 walks in 24.1 innings—his boost could make this rotation one of the top groups in the AL.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
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When a franchise continually has a strong rotation, it can be hard to call it underrated. But this group seems to fall under the category because it does not have a recognizable ace and because the Rays, who traded David Price last year, lost 85 games in 2014.
Still, this is a legit rotation even without Price and with Matt More still on the comeback from Tommy John surgery.
Alex Cobb takes over as the No. 1 guy, and if it weren’t for Price’s presence, he would have been the team ace the last two seasons. Over that time, Cobb has started 49 games and posted a 2.82 ERA and 134 ERA-plus. ZiPS sees Cobb scaling back a bit with a 3.20 ERA and 3.25 FIP, but still being worth nearly a 4.0 WAR like he was in 2013 and 2014.
Chris Archer is entering his third full season and, if healthy, should surpass the 200-inning benchmark. He also has posted consecutive seasons of sub-3.50 ERAs, and his .650 opponents’ OPS was 11th among starters in the AL.
Meanwhile, Drew Smyly, who the team targeted in the negotiations for Price, made seven starts after the trade and had a 1.70 ERA and 0.755 WHIP. While ZiPS does not see him being that good in 2015, it does give him a solid 3.27 ERA and a 3.0 WAR.
Rounding out the bottom is Jake Odorizzi, who is still coming into form in his second full season, and Moore, who is hoping to return before the All-Star break. If he comes back and gives the Rays upward of 18 starts, he can be a major contributor and assure this rotation stays in the top tier of the American League.
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2. New York Mets
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To show just how important a legitimate ace is to a team’s rotation, the Mets pretty much gave up hope of competing in the National League East last season when Matt Harvey missed out because of Tommy John surgery.
This year he is back, and if he can return to 2013 form, the Mets will have the head of their rotation in place as a young and promising group of starting pitchers leads the team’s hope to contend in 2015.
Aside from Harvey, 24-year-old Zack Wheeler is one of the more important pieces of the rotation. He put up a 3.54 ERA and 98 ERA-plus last season, but in the second half, he had a 3.04 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
Wheeler and Jacob deGrom, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, make up the rotation’s first three. DeGrom had a stellar first season after being called up in May. He finished with a 2.69 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and a 130 ERA-plus. If he can come close to repeating that performance, and if Wheeler can be his second-half self, the Mets’ top three could be as good as any trio in the league.
Bartolo Colon, who is a season removed from having a 2.65 ERA over 30 starts, regressed massively last year with his 4.09 ERA, but he will still be in this season’s rotation. If he can find a common middle ground between his 2013 and 2014 stat lines, the Mets will have one of the best back-end starters in the league.
Dillon Gee, a constant trade rumor, Jon Niese and Rafael Montero are candidates for the fifth spot, but one of them, including Colon, is likely just a place holder until top prospect Noah Syndergaard is ready to make his debut.
Syndergaard, 22, is a top-11 prospect across the board, but he struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas last season. Until he proves he can handle the last step of the minors, the Mets will not trust him to hold down a significant role in the rotation, although it seems likely to happen at some point this year.
1. Cleveland Indians
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If you did not realize how good the entire Indians rotation was last season, and not just under-the-radar American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, you were not alone. This was the most slept-on starting group in the majors in 2014, and all they did was accumulate the league’s second-best WAR (FanGraphs), its best FIP, the majors’ third-best second-half ERA and Major League Baseball’s best strikeout rate ever.
So, yeah. These guys were better than good. And no one really seemed to know it, even in Cleveland since the team had the league’s worst attendance.
That might be because aside from Kluber, no one in the rotation had a great season. T.J. House’s 111 ERA-plus was the highest among starters who are not Kluber, and he made only 18 starts. Aside from those two, no other starter had an ERA lower than 4.18 except for Carlos Carrasco, who started 14 games.
Carrasco was a difference-maker once he was put into the rotation permanently in the second half. In 10 starts, he tallied 78 innings, a 1.72 ERA and 86 strikeouts.
The rotation was the youngest in the majors last year, and it mostly returns intact this year. Kluber leads it, followed by Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, House and Danny Salazar. Gavin Floyd will also be in the mix if he returns from a fractured elbow.
If guys like Bauer and Salazar can make the next step in their progressions, Kluber keeps his 2014 form and Carrasco can sustain his second-half success, this group will not be underrated for much longer.
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