Predictions for Top ATP Stars at 2015 Indian Wells Masters
The first Masters Series event of the 2015 season is here, and the stakes are about to be raised.
In the California desert, the top men in the world will battle for one of the top prizes of the spring and precious momentum before the clay-court season arrives.
This year's field features impressive depth from top to bottom, and there will be plenty of tantalizing matches. With every member of the Top 10 competing, there's no easy path to lifting the title this time around.
The following slides will examine several of the top-ranked male players, analyze their draw and forecast their chances at Indian Wells. If recent history is any indication, prepare for another high-quality and drama-filled stretch of tennis.
Grigor Dimitrov
1 of 8
After winning his star-studded exhibition in Madison Square Garden against Roger Federer, the 11th-seeded Grigor Dimitrov will hope for some more fireworks in the coming days.
Based on his results so far this season—a beatdown by Federer in the Brisbane semifinals, a dismal fourth-round meltdown against Andy Murray at the Australian Open and second-round losses in Rotterdam and Acapulco—the Bulgarian desperately needs to turn the tide.
The 23-year-old talent has taken a step back since his run to the Wimbledon semifinals last summer and hasn't approached that same level. He's looked overwhelmed and unsure of himself too often in 2015.
At Indian Wells, he's never advanced past the third round. If he can navigate past a possible meeting with rising star Nick Kyrgios in his first match, Dimitrov could be headed for a date against powerful Milos Raonic in the fourth round.
Dimitrov owns a 2-1 record against the Canadian, but Raonic has made rapid improvement since their last meeting at the 2014 Australian Open. His massive serve and better recent form give him a good chance to take out Dimitrov.
Prediction: Fourth round
Stan Wawrinka
2 of 8
With a 15-2 record and two titles so far this season, few players have started stronger than Stan Wawrinka has.
The world No. 7 opened his season by winning Chennai and advanced to the semifinals at the Australian Open, where he lost in five epic sets to Novak Djokovic.
He rebounded from that letdown against Tomas Berdych in the Rotterdam final with a tough three-set victory. In his follow-up tournament, however, Sergiy Stakhovsky upset him in the Marseille quarterfinals.
There's no denying the Swiss' talent, but his biggest struggle has been with consistency. At Indian Wells, he'll look to get back into winning form in a tough section of the draw.
In the third round, Wawrinka could meet Lukas Rosol, a potentially dangerous opponent. Pressure would escalate in his next match against the mammoth serve of Ivo Karlovic or ninth-ranked Berdych.
Should he advance to the quarterfinals, Wawrinka would likely face his Davis Cup teammate Roger Federer, against whom he owns a 2-15 lifetime record. Capturing that match may prove too tough a challenge on these courts.
Prediction: Quarterfinals
Milos Raonic
3 of 8
Armed with one of the most lethal serves on tour, Milos Raonic has slowly been adding other pieces to his repertoire.
Over the past year, he's slimmed down and improved his fitness. As a result, he's moving better than ever and striking his backhand with more confidence. To start going further in big tournaments, he'll need to make better use of all those tools.
The Canadian brings an 11-5 season record into Indian Wells, where he reached the quarterfinals in 2014. He'll begin the event against either Simone Bolelli or Thomaz Bellucci and should sail into the third round.
If he advances to the fourth round, fellow rising star Grigor Dimitrov will likely be in his way. That match won't be easy, but the mighty Raonic serve can carry him into the quarterfinals.
There, he could face Rafael Nadal, who poses a bad matchup with his stellar return game. The Spaniard owns a 5-0 record in their head-to-head rivalry and clearly won't back down from the Raonic challenge.
Prediction: Quarterfinals
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Kei Nishikori
4 of 8
Kei Nishikori is the player who is most ready to break the Big Four's stranglehold.
During his breakout 2014 campaign, he soared to the No. 5 ranking, a 54-14 record and four titles. He announced himself as a serious force with the aid of his elite athleticism and baseline wizardry. So far this season, there haven't been any signs of a letdown.
The 25-year-old Japanese star enters Indian Wells with a 16-3 record and a title in Memphis. He's reached the quarterfinals or better at all four ATP-level events he's played, and he should have no trouble making another deep run here.
He'll square off against Ryan Harrison in his first match and could potentially meet the Spanish duo of Fernando Verdasco and Feliciano Lopez in the following two rounds. But Nishikori is a much better all-around player than any of them and has too many weapons for them to handle.
His biggest test will probably come in the quarterfinals against Andy Murray. Though Nishikori won their last meeting in November at the World Tour Finals, he's lost his other three matches to the Scot. Both men are equally matched, but Murray's experience at this tournament will make him the favorite in their duel.
Prediction: Quarterfinals
Andy Murray
5 of 8
He was a set-and-a-half away from capturing his first Australian Open crown. And then everything went downhill.
Andy Murray fell apart in Melbourne against Novak Djokovic, surrendering a 3-0 lead in the third set and failing to win another game. He hasn't been able to shake the hangover from that loss, and the Scot suffered straight-sets defeats in the quarterfinals at both Rotterdam and Dubai.
Outside of Davis Cup play, where he picked up two wins for Great Britain last week against Americans Donald Young and John Isner, Murray is just 4-2 since that loss to Djokovic and has been plagued by sloppy play and a lack of confidence.
To rectify the situation, he recently started working with Jonas Bjorkman, and the two will hope for a turnaround at Indian Wells, where Murray has reached the quarterfinals or better four times, including the 2009 final.
He'll be able to ease into his draw, where he could meet powerful Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round and either Ernests Gulbis or Fabio Fognini afterward.
In the quarterfinals, Kei Nishikori could be waiting to hand him another loss, but Murray will be driven to get a win over a Top 10 player to build momentum.
His run will likely go no further than the semifinals, where he's slated to play his rival Djokovic. Murray has lost their last five meetings—and eight of their last nine. Finding a way to beat the Serbian on this surface is no small task.
Prediction: Semifinals
Roger Federer
6 of 8
To win his fifth title at Indian Wells, Roger Federer will have to navigate through a tough half of the draw.
The four-time (2004-2006, 2012) champion could meet big-hitting Jerzy Janowicz in his first match. After taking a week off after winning Dubai, he can ill-afford a slow start against the Pole. Should he advance, he'll likely face his Australian Open vanquisher, Andreas Seppi, in the third round. Expect Federer to be hungry for revenge.
Things will heat up in the quarterfinals, where the Swiss could face his countryman, Stan Wawrinka, or another Top 10 player, Tomas Berdych. Both men present a tricky match, but Federer's superior track record at the tournament favors him in either scenario.
His stiffest test may come in the form of his nemesis, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals. Though Nadal has stumbled through an uneven start to the season, Federer is a dismal 10-23 against his foe, losing their last five meetings. His last win over the Spaniard came here three years ago, but matching that result won't be easy. Give the edge to Nadal, who'll be motivated to put up a good result before the switch to clay.
Prediction: Semifinals
Rafael Nadal
7 of 8
Rafael Nadal has yet to display his customary dominant form in 2015.
After missing almost the entire second half of last season due to injuries, Nadal has stumbled out of the gates to begin this year.
He lost in his first match at Doha to Michael Berrer and was soundly crushed by Tomas Berdych in the Australian Open quarterfinals.
Even on the dirt, Nadal has found mixed success. His 52-0 record in clay semifinals came to an end in Rio against the volatile Fabio Fognini. While he rebounded with a title in Buenos Aires, Nadal needs a deep run at a big event like Indian Wells.
He lucked out and landed a cushy draw to start the tournament. He shouldn't be pressured until the fourth round, where he could face Richard Gasquet or Gilles Simon.
In the quarterfinals, Nadal may be headed for a showdown with either Milos Raonic or Grigor Dimitrov. He's 5-0 against both of them, though the versatile Dimitrov has played him tougher in the past.
Roger Federer could be sitting there in the semifinals, and Nadal would be salivating at the thought of that possibility. Despite the Swiss' prowess at the event, Nadal has to be considered the favorite anytime they meet. His defense and ability to break down the Federer backhand with lefty topspin gives him a huge advantage, which his rival often can't overcome.
If Nadal reaches his fifth final in the desert, his prize will likely be a showdown with the one man who's able to consistently turn the tables and give him trouble.
Prediction: Runner-up
Novak Djokovic
8 of 8
Even after his recent loss to Roger Federer in Dubai, Novak Djokovic should still be considered the favorite at Indian Wells.
He defeated Federer in last year's intense final, and he'll look to match his Swiss rival's record of four titles at the event this time. Don't put it past him.
Djokovic, who cemented the No. 1 ranking after winning the Australian Open yet again, is clearly the top player in the world at the moment. At age 27, he's in the prime of his career. The scariest part is that he hasn't even played his best tennis yet in 2015.
With the French Open around the corner, now is the time for Djokovic to start fine-tuning his game. That result in Dubai shouldn't deter him; if anything, it will motivate him to take things to another gear.
In his quarter of the draw, Djokovic sits with Julien Benneteau, John Isner, Marin Cilic and David Ferrer. On these slower hard courts, however, none of those men can challenge Djokovic's defensive arsenal and movement.
He should find himself in the semifinals, where he would take on Andy Murray or Kei Nishikori. Both players—especially Nishikori—can give him trouble, but Djokovic will have enough to make another final.
If he reaches that point, fans will likely be treated to a blockbuster matchup featuring Djokovic and either Federer or Rafael Nadal. The Serbian won't be intimidated and should bounce back with his second title of the season.
Prediction: Champion
All statistics courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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