NFL Free Agents 2015: Predictions for Most Undervalued Players on Market

We knew most of the free agents we spent the early offseason discussing would wind up as franchise tag victims. We knew Ndamukong Suh was due to break records if he actually hit the free-agent market. We knew the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders would spend the first few days of the league year again trying to buy themselves into relevance.

But what about everyone else?

As tends to be the case in most free-agency situations, most exorbitant sums given and soon-to-be-regretted contracts are signed within the first couple of days—even hours. Desperate teams engage in bidding wars against themselves while opportunistic agents soak up every potential dollar. It's all a very straightforward and understandable process given the pressures on both sides about keeping their jobs.

At times, it also creates a vastly more interesting secondary market. In a sport where contracts are never what they seem, finding value is all about getting the most out of a player for one or two seasons without much in the way of long-term guarantees.

Here is a look at a few veterans who are likely to draw such contracts.

CB Antonio Cromartie

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Cromartie signed a one-year contract in Arizona with designs on re-entering the free-agent market a year later with a renewed stock. It would seem, on paper, he did just that. Cromartie recorded 48 tackles and three interceptions for the Cardinals, at times emerging as an even better coverage option than Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson.

Pro Football Focus ranked Cromartie the 10th-best coverage corner in football. Add in a run stop percentage that ranked a surprisingly solid 21st—he is not, nor will he ever be an elite option against the ground game—and Cromartie probably expected a robust market.

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That hasn't been the case. Possibly turned off by his age (he turns 31 in April) or his habit of wildly variant performances, the rumor mill has been conspicuously quiet as the free-agency period begins. To put it another way: Most good free agents do not have to go on national television and campaign to be signed by a team.

"They're only missing one key piece and that's the piece in the secondary, and I feel like I can be that piece to help and go and win a championship and get the Dallas Cowboys back where they're supposed to be," Cromartie said on ESPN's First Take on Tuesday, per Igor Mello of CBS Sports.

Cowboys or not, it appears Cromartie is on a path to the bargain bin again. He's probably not going to command much more than a one- or two-year contract worth around $5-6 million per season, which is kind of amazing given his down 2013 was much closer to a blip than his solid 2014. At the very worst he's a fine second corner who doesn't give up much in terms of size or athleticism against most wideouts.

If that's the price, Cromartie may be right. He might just be the piece the Cowboys are missing.

Prediction: Cowboys

CB Tramon Williams

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Same situation, entirely different career path. Williams' highs haven't nearly been as high as Cromartie's. He has one Pro Bowl berth to Cromartie's four, and has almost never been mentioned among the game's best corners.

He's also never had as low of lows. A bastion of consistency across his eight seasons in Green Bay, Williams has long been best described as "solid." He struggled a bit in coverage in 2014, but remained an exceedingly solid run defender, making more than 70 tackles for the second straight season. The former Louisiana Tech standout has played in 127 of a possible 128 games since making his debut in 2007, emerging from an undrafted free agent to integral fixture.

In his seven seasons as a regular starter, Williams has made at least 50 tackles and two interceptions in each campaign; in all but one he had at least three picks. While his slippage in coverage last season was disconcerting, he's a soon-to-be 32-year-old who won't command a deal structure that will have much in the way of guarantees beyond 2015. 

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Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported Williams rejected a two-year, $8 million contract from the Packers. Because we know NFL contracts are never what they seem, it's likely that deal was essentially a one-year deal—one Green Bay would have been able to extract itself from if Williams' struggles in coverage continue.

As it stands, the market for Williams probably rests in a similar spot as it does for Cromartie. If he insists on a three-year contract, the number won't get any higher than $15 million; the third year would also very likely be superficial. Somewhere between $4-5 million, even over two years, is a fine price for someone as consistent as Williams.

Prediction: Seahawks

OT Jake Long

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I have no idea if Long is still any good. I doubt teams do, either. He was limited to 22 games during two seasons in St. Louis, suffering two torn ACLs in the same knee. It's a rarity to see a reconstruction blow up that quickly in today's day and age, so it's hard to gauge how Long will perform once he's back on the field.

All of which makes him a potential value. It's unlikely we'll see any team offer him much more than an incentive-laden one-year contract with built-in playing time and performance escalators. Even if there are additional years tacked onto his contract, they're going to be superficial; no team is paying a premium for a soon-to-be 30-year-old coming off back-to-back ACL tears.

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Assuming a move to right tackle is also in order—it probably should have been last season before the injury—this sets up well if Long can stay healthy. In 2013, Long ranked 27th among offensive tackles in pass blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus. That's not exactly promising for a foundational left tackle, but can be fine for a right tackle who excels in run blocking the way Long does.

Throughout his time in Miami and even briefly in St. Louis, Long has been among the better run-blocking tackles in football. PFF graded him second in 2013, and he has never had a negative overall grade against the run in his seven NFL seasons. Moving him to the right side, where the pass-blocking demands are less and run-blocking demands are often more, is a natural move at this juncture of his career. 

Keep him on the field, and Long has the potential to be one of the best right tackles in football. Fingers will just have to be crossed that his knee holds up.

Prediction: Rams

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.