Serie A: Analysing the Race for Champions League Places
The race for the Scudetto was effectively decided on Monday evening, as an organised and determined Juventus drew with Roma at the Olimpico. The draw left Roma nine points behind with 13 fixtures left to play. Closing that gap is mathematically possible, but logically, it is almost certainly not.
Instead, Roma must now look over their shoulder, where behind them a rabid and increasingly competitive race for a top-three spot has begun. They are now closer to Napoli in third, meaning ensuring a Champions League berth next season is the new priority.
The task will not be an easy one, however. Fiorentina are in excellent form, Lazio are well organised and both have squad depth. It makes for a compelling end to the Serie A season.
Here, the ambitions of Italy’s Champions League hopefuls are assessed on the basis of:
- Form: How well have they been playing?
- Fixtures: How tough is their remaining fixture list?
- Problems: Are there any barriers between them and a top-thee spot?
- Man who could make the difference: Who will play a crucial role in the run-in?
Each of Roma, Napoli, Lazio and Fiorentina will be analysed on the above criteria, before a verdict is given stating which two teams will be competing in the Champions League next season.
Roma
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Form
Roma’s recent form has been poor. They have won just three of their last 12 league fixtures since beating Inter 4-2 at home in late November, reducing their title hopes to rubble.
The psychological wounds of a 1-7 battering at home to Bayern Munich and a subsequently premature Champions League exit still linger, threatening to destroy their season entirely.
Fixtures
Roma’s toughest run comes in the shape of a four-match schedule bookended by trips to the San Siro to face both Milan clubs. In the middle is an away day at Sassuolo and a home game with Genoa, neither of which are easy matches in their own right.
The Giallorossi’s most important match will be a home clash with third-placed Napoli on 4 April. Victory could seal their Champions League place; anything else could drag them further into the quagmire.
Problems
Evidently, Roma are not recovered from their humbling at the hands of Bayern earlier in the season. They have shown a worrying inability to kill off opposition; for all their possession they lack a clinical touch in the final third.
Francesco Totti’s moments of magic are becoming rarer and rarer and, with just five league goals and assists this season as per WhoScored.com, Rudi Garcia must now consider whether starting the ageing icon is a good idea.
Man who could make the difference
Daniele Verde is just 18 years old but shows enormous promise. Away to Cagliari in February, Verde set up both of Roma’s goals in a 2-1 win. His vim, pace and energetic spark could be just what the team needs to haul them out of their turgid run of draws.
Napoli
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Form
Napoli’s Supercoppa victory over Juventus in December boosted their confidence no end. Having picked up some silverware, Rafa Benitez’s men flew out of the blocks in the New Year, winning five of six league fixtures and reaching the last four of the Coppa Italia.
A disconcerting inconsistency has emerged in their domestic form, however. Defeats to cohesive mid-table sides Torino and Palermo suggests that Napoli’s place in next season’s Champions League is far from a foregone conclusion.
Fixtures
Napoli will have to have their wits about them in April. In this month they travel to Roma before squaring off with Fiorentina at San Paolo.
Following this awkward pair of fixtures is a tricky trip to Sardinia to face Cagliari and a home game against Sinisa Mihajlovic’s unpredictable Sampdoria.
They cannot afford to take their eyes off the ball until all fixtures are wrapped up either, as they face Lazio at home on the last day of the season in a match that could decide who proceeds to Europe’s most prestigious club competition next season.
Problems
Having comfortably disposed of Turkey’s Trabzonspor, Napoli were drawn against Dynamo Moscow in the Europa League’s last 16. This will be seen as a gift by some, but it could also prove a curse.
Rafa Benitez is renowned for his canniness in cup competitions, as his personal trophy haul can attest to, so Napoli can rightly be expected to pass the upcoming Russian hurdle with aplomb.
The problem is that competing in both the Europa League and Coppa Italia could see their league performance take a backseat.
Furthermore, Rafa Benitez looks set to leave the club in the summer, as observed by the Daily Mail, and the speculation about his future cannot be an aid to team morale.
Man who could make the difference
Gonzalo Higuain looked sharp at the start of the year, discarding the sulking attitude he displayed in defeat to AC Milan in December. That day, he cut a frustrated, disinterested and forlorn figure. He was not channelling his emotions well and let the team down.
Although disappointed with a Champions League group stage exit, Higuain must continue to unleash his fury on opposition defences if Napoli are to stand a chance of retaining their top-three position.
Lazio
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Form
Stefano Pioli has done a fantastic job this season, turning Lazio into a unit capable of beating Italy’s best on their day. They entered their Coppa Italia semi-final with Napoli on the back of three consecutive league wins over Udinese, Palermo and Sassuolo.
Perhaps the most discomforting thing for those that lie above Lazio is that they appear to be getting stronger, feeding off of the improvement of several young players and inspired signings.
Fixtures
Lazio’s most important remaining fixture could well be their most imminent, as next Monday they host Fiorentina in a battle of fourth and fifth.
Only one point separates the two sides, and Lazio will know that victory could force their closest rivals out of the picture as they jostle to overtake Napoli.
Lazio’s last four fixtures will be a true test of their Champions League credentials. Here, home games against Inter and Roma sandwich a trip to Sampdoria, and the finale comes in the form of a possible third-place decider with Napoli at San Paolo.
Problems
Other than the Coppa Italia semi-final clash with Napoli, Lazio’s only concern will be preventing nosebleeds caused by their high league position. The closer they come to overthrowing the likes of Napoli and Roma, the more they will be reminded of the fact they were not supposed to be where they are right now.
Man who could make the difference
Felipe Anderson is fast becoming one of the players to watch in Italy right now. After an inconspicuous first season with the club, he has began to revel in the channels for Lazio.
His turn of pace, audacious dribbling and willingness to commit defenders are a genuine source of goals.
His latest moment of inspiration came in curling in the opener at the weekend as Lazio beat Sassuolo 3-0 away.
Fiorentina
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Form
Fiorentina are one of Italy’s in-form teams right now. Their last defeat came away to Parma in the first game back after the winter break, and their latest win, in San Siro against Inter on Sunday, was a display of fortitude and class.
Vincenzo Montella deserves plaudits for the way he has rotated his squad to maximise performance in both domestic and continental competition.
Fixtures
Fiorentina’s next five matches are a gauntlet, starting with Lazio away and finishing with Napoli away. In between are home games against AC Milan and Sampdoria, and amid those two is a journey north to Udine.
The Udinese fixture takes on an extra dimension of importance given the cluster of testing fixtures that surround it. Fiorentina will likely have to win there if they are to have any chance of clinging on to the coat-tails of Napoli and Lazio.
Problems
Fiorentina’s main struggle is likely to be competing on three separate fronts. They have a Europa League tie with Roma coming up, as well as a Coppa Italia semi-final against Juventus. This, along with their upcoming harrowing list of fixtures, will provide a stern examination of Montella’s squad management skills.
Man who could make the difference
The sale of Juan Cuadrado to Chelsea may have earned the club £23 million plus, but with hindsight the more important aspect of this deal was the arrival of Mohamed Salah in a swap arrangement.
Salah has bewitched since pulling on Viola purple, scoring six goals in seven appearances and playing a crucial role in knocking out Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League round of 32.
Verdict
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Roma are four points clear of Napoli at this moment and even further clear of Lazio and Fiorentina, making them heavy favourites for a Champions League berth. Even given their problematic form, it would take a real collapse for Roma to give up a top-three spot altogether.
Napoli could well spread themselves too thin with challenges in multiple cup competitions. That, along with rumours surrounding Benitez’s future with the club, may derail their league campaign. Their best bet of qualifying for next season’s Champions League may come via winning the Europa League.
Lazio look well poised to overtake a wavering Napoli with plenty of time left on the clock. Their two-legged cup semi-final tie will be a nice taster of what is to come when they visit Naples on the last game of the season.
Powered by Salah and a wholesome squad, Fiorentina will grasp at Champions League football only to be pulled away by other fantasies, such as lifting silverware. They could go deep in the Europa League, having already knocked Roma out of the domestic cup, and if they do, expect that to become a priority.
Next season's Champions League final will be held at San Siro. Anyone for a Derby della Capitale in Milan?
