Predicting the Top 6 for Every Major League in Europe
It is closing time.
Leagues are there to be won, Champions League and Europa League places likewise. Finishing strong leaves clubs in great conditions for 2015/16; similarly a poor finish creates drama and controversy heading into the off-season/summer transfer window.
Some of Europe's major leagues look a formality at the top, but as eyes venture lower, there are battles for every vital spot.
Here we attempt to forecast the top-six spots in the Premier League, the Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and La Liga tables.
Ligue 1
1 of 5
1. Paris Saint-Germain (Champions League group stage)
Paris Saint-Germain have lost just twice in Ligue 1 this season. They have been undone by 11 draws—costing them, at most, 22 points. Unbeaten in 15 of 16 in all competitions since New Year's Day, winning 11 of those, PSG have turned the corner and should surge from hereon. Anything short of French glory, considering money spent and players included, would be disastrous.
2. Lyon (Champions League group stage)
Alexandre Lacazette: If you are not familiar with the 23-year-old striker, one might suggest you read up on him. Scoring 23 goals in 25 Ligue 1 matches, the Lyon academy product has Les Gones currently atop the French table. Though Paris Saint-Germain still remain favourites, Lyon possess what other sides lack—an in-form, motivated, clinical centre-forward.
3. Olympique de Marseille (Champions League third qualifying round)
Last season Marseille finished sixth in the French first division after being runners-up in 2012/13. Finding their footing this season, l'OM have rebounded with a title-contending effort, at one point leading Ligue 1 for 14 matchdays. Correcting a slump with a 6-1 drubbing of Toulouse on 6 March, it is possible the away result could spark another rich vein of form.
4. AS Monaco (Europa League third qualifying round)
Expertly dealing with Arsenal in the Champions League, one might not suspect the resurgent Monaco are 10 points back from first place in domestic play (with one game in hand). Selling James Rodriguez and loaning Radamel Falcao last summer, one wonders exactly what the Monaco brass are thinking in terms of establishing themselves as a global brand, but European football is a must in those efforts.
5. AS Saint-Etienne & 6. Montpellier
Unlike England, Spain, Germany and Italy—France is given just four slots for European football. The top six in this season's league will probably be rounded out by either Saint Etienne, Montpellier or Bordeaux.
Considering the French league holds and hosted many outstanding footballers who have gone to other leagues and performed exceptionally well—Eric Cantona, Zinedine Zidane, Claude Makelele and Didier Drogba spring to mind—the fact Ligue 1 gets such a small number of openings is rather curious.
Serie A
2 of 5
1. Juventus (Champions League group stage)
Juventus' grip on Serie A has gone nowhere. Winning the Italian championship the past three seasons—by a respective four, nine and 17 points—2014/15 appears to be taking a similar path, despite managerial changes and player speculation last summer. With a nine-point gap today—and 12 matches left on the schedule—the lead will probably widen.
2. AS Roma (Champions League group stage)
Juventus are in a league of their own, so the race for second is normally the best descriptor of Serie A, and three teams have eyes on the automatic Champions League place—Roma being most likely to capture the prize. Finishing second last season, Roma have drawn 10 of their last 13 games. Difficult to beat but cannot seem to find the killer goal.
3. Napoli (Champions League play-off round)
Presently in the Europa League spots on goal difference, Rafa Benitez has a dozen fixtures to find one point. Napoli have finished no worse than fifth over the last five seasons and are positioned to play Champions League football next season, should they complete their schedule strongly.
4. Lazio (Europa League group stage)
Ninth last season, Lazio in and among the contending pack for European places is an upgrade. Only Juventus have scored more goals in the 2014/15 Serie A campaign to date—with experienced veterans Miroslav Klose and Stefano Mauri scoring eight goals a piece. Whether they can keep this pace up, however, is up in the air. Relying on experience over youth does tend to have its benefits.
5. Fiorentina (Europa League third qualifying round)
Since the departure of Juan Cuadrado in the January transfer window, Fiorentina have taken an upturn—spearheaded by Egyptian international and Chelsea loanee Mohamed Salah. The Florence club had gone six games unbeaten in all competitions, with Salah scoring six goals in eight appearances, until their recent 4-0 hiding at the hands of Lazio. If the Egyptian can boost his new club with excitement and pace, their place in Europe should be maintained.
6. Sampdoria
Interestingly, Italy are just better than France—in that five teams qualify for Europe from the domestic table. You will notice the likes of Inter Milan and AC Milan are glaring omissions from this table; instead Sampdoria and Genoa are the presumed contenders for the sixth Serie A spot.
Depressing times at the San Siro in terms of European competition—as the sanctuary of Italian football will lie dormant for what appears a complete season.
Bundesliga
3 of 5
1. Bayern Munich (Champions League group stage)
For Bayern Munich, the question is not if they win the 2014/15 Bundesliga title but by how many points. Constructed in a tremendous fashion, with quality in every area of the pitch, Pep Guardiola's task is more continental and less domestic. Another question to mull over is how long can the Bavarians sustain this dominance?
2. VfL Wolfsburg (Champions League group stage)
One club wishing to knock Bayern Munich off its perch in the coming years is Wolfsburg. Spending handsomely on Kevin De Bruyne and Andre Schurrle, for instance, intent exists for the Volkswagen-owned enterprise to make headway in both the Bundesliga and Champions League. This season they look secure runners-up.
3. Schalke 04 (Champions League group stage)
One goal from removing Real Madrid from the 2014/15 Champions League, Schalke proved their worth at the Santiago Bernabeu, beating the reigning European champions 4-3 in the round of 16's second leg. Should Roberto Di Matteo's club carry the determination, heart and form they displayed in the UCL—without arguably their best player in 21-year-old Julian Draxler—reaching the Champions League again should be light work.
4. Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League play-off round)
Fourth-place finishers in 2013/14, Bayern Leverkusen know what earning Champions League football takes. Drawing nine times so far this season, the BayArena men are difficult to break down on their day—and get points. Leading Atletico Madrid 1-0 in their Champions League tie, how current UCL demands affect earning the privilege next season is yet to be determined.
5. Borussia Monchengladbach (Europa League group stage)
For Schalke and Bayern Leverkusen to move up, one team has to move down and Lucien Favre's Borussia Monchengladbach is the elected outfit. Required to play Munich, Dortmund and Wolfsburg, Gladbach's slender two-point advantage will likely dissipate. Progressing from this season's Europa League group stage, however, Monchengladbach are a club to monitor for next season.
6. Augsburg (Europa League third qualifying round)
Some might gather Bayern Munich are the team who benefit most from the struggles of Borussia Dortmund, but that simply is not the case—the team that finishes sixth stands to gain most from Jurgen Klopp's sluggish 2014/15: FC Augsburg is the club. Nine points further than Dortmund, and five points better than seventh, Augsburg in the Europa League could be a reality.
La Liga
4 of 5
1. Barcelona (Champions League group stage)
Remember the crisis Barcelona had to start 2015? Lionel Messi was leaving for Chelsea, Luis Enrique was getting the sack and all sorts? Thought not. Since their loss to Real Sociedad on 4 January, Barca have taken 24 of 27 available points and possess their own fate. As continuity grows between Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez, more goals will occur—those lead to points, which invariably result in trophies.
2. Real Madrid (Champions League group stage)
Connecting 12 straight La Liga wins from 20 September to 12 December (with a goal difference of 39) the notion Real Madrid would fail to win the Spanish crown was never contemplated, much less discussed. After dropping eight points in their last five games, however, Real opened the door for Barcelona and the Catalan giants walked through. With 22 March's El Clasico left—despite being down just one point—Carlo Ancelotti's side have an uphill climb.
3. Atletico Madrid (Champions League group stage)
Last season's champions have been slightly off the pace they forced Spain's two massive clubs to create. Losing Diego Costa, Filipe Luis and Thibaut Courtois (recalled from his loan) to Chelsea, Diego Simeone has been hamstrung by new parts integrating. Currently seven points shy of the league leaders, consolidating Champions League football with 12 matches left would seem prudent.
4. Valencia (Champions League play-off round)
Five points clear of La Liga's fifth-place team, Valencia have some breathing room in securing 2015/16 Champions League football. Los Che have played Spain's elite's tough this season, taking four points from Atletico Madrid and three points from Real Madrid, but still have trips to the Camp Nou and the Santiago Bernabeu to navigate.
5. Villarreal (Europa League group stage)
Going 10 games unbeaten in the Spanish first division from early November to January, Villarreal made substantial ground in the league: Their place in mid-table looks all but certain. The question is—can they make up further ground? In sixth place (by one point) as of now, seeing Villarreal in a Champions League spot would certainly be a shock.
6. Sevilla (Europa League third qualifying round)
One of six teams in La Liga to have 2015/16 European football all but done and dusted, only an epic collapse could keep Sevilla from playing Thursday nights next season. Not carrying a better defence than Villarreal or Valencia, Sevilla closing the five-point gap from fifth to fourth does not seem likely. In fact, them slipping one place to sixth is certainly plausible.
Premier League
5 of 5
1. Chelsea (Champions League group stage)
Chelsea were the popular choice for 2014/15 Premier League champions at the start of this campaign, and Jose Mourinho's squad has not disappointed. Five points clear of Manchester City, with one game in hand, the Blues allowing the title to slip over the season's last third would be calamitous. Guided by veteran leadership from John Terry, Didier Drogba and Mourinho himself, expect there to be a parade in west London come season's end.
2. Manchester City (Champions League group stage)
Defending their crown in 2014/15, Manchester City have found keeping pace with the club above them difficult. With Yaya Toure at the Africa Cup of Nations this winter, Manuel Pellegrini's side were a rudderless ship, dropping seven points in January. Presently closer to third place than first, holding on to second may be its own challenge.
3. Arsenal (Champions League group stage)
Arsene Wenger and his north London club have finished fourth the past two seasons—that run looks to be ending. While not as high up the table as Arsenal would wish, the Gunners have rallied—losing just two matches in their last 11 Premier League outings. If only Wenger could keep his squad relatively healthy over a complete season.
4. Liverpool (Champions League play-off round)
Luis Suarez's departure and Daniel Sturridge's injury woes provided Brendan Rodgers with something of an early season crisis—with the Reds as low as 12th in the league table. Discovering a 3-4-3 system, however, Liverpool have not lost in their last 12 EPL fixtures. This form should see the Reds finish in Champions League places.
5. Manchester United (Europa League group stage)
Spending upwards of £150 million in the 2014 summer transfer window, Manchester United should expect to be top-four participants, but their run-in is arduous and Louis van Gaal's men have largely survived on David De Gea's hands (and sometimes feet) this term. While not ideal, the Europa League would open another means of Champions League entry in 2015/16.
6. Tottenham Hotspur (Europa League third qualifying round)
Over the season's first half, Tottenham struggled to adapt to new thinking from Mauricio Pochettino but have since rebounded thanks to the goal-scoring exploits of Harry Kane. Firm members of the Europa League, Spurs appear destined to continue European Thursday nights.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase.com where not noted.
