Who Will End Up with the Most Career Titles: Federer, Nadal or Djokovic?
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal picked up the latest career titles in their historic careers. Federer now holds 84 titles, good for third place in the Open era behind Ivan Lendl (94) and Jimmy Connors (109). Will he make it to 100 titles? Can he track down Connors?
Nadal stepped past legends Bjorn Borg and Pete Sampras with his 65th title, good for fifth on the career titles list with John McEnroe (77) ahead. He is five years Federer’s junior, but is there enough time to make up the gap and eventually pass his Swiss rival?
Meanwhile, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who was turned back by Federer at Dubai, stands at 49 career titles, tied with his coach Boris Becker for 11th place. He is at his peak, scooping up titles like coins at the bottom of a tourist fountain. But he's only halfway completed the course to 100 titles.
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As Father Time shakes the hourglass, the Big Three continue their dynastic land grabs as if it were a cutthroat game of Risk. Someone has to bow out first, but the races will continue until they all hang up their rackets.
How will this trilogy of tennis drama one day be calculated? There will be twists, turns and eventually a mathematical conclusion, but only one will shine over more conquered territory than the others.
Swiss Classic: The Case for Federer
The opening act to any great period creates a new fervor, an original composition that sets the tone with its style and success. The years of winning (2004-2007) 11, 11, 12 and eight titles are long past for Federer, but the 33-year-old Swiss Maestro won five titles last year, his second-highest total since those glory years.
There are several reasons that Federer seems likely to win at least 100 titles. He has been consistent, healthy and he has often expressed his love for playing tennis, best exemplified by introspective comments he shared at Shanghai over two years ago to the ATP staff via ATP World Tour:
"Sometimes you're just happy playing. Some people, some media unfortunately don't understand that it's okay just to play tennis and enjoy it. They always think you have to win everything, it always needs to be a success story, and if it's not obviously what is the point.
Maybe you have to go back and think, Why have I started playing tennis? Because I just like it. It's actually sort of a dream hobby that became somewhat of a job. Some people just don't get that ever.
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Federer’s training and efforts have been greatly overshadowed by his lofty results and superstardom, but the roots to his success have come with blue-collar efforts to work on his game. Early in his career, he worked hard to improve his backhand. He shored up and mastered his terrific forehand. He has continued to work on shortening points and pressuring opponents.
His adaptability on all surfaces makes him a contender for titles anywhere, but he showed at Dubai that he is still the fast-surface king. He is a top contender on grass and autumn’s lineup of fast and indoors surfaces. He travels well, gets his rest and has the kind of longevity Connors showed.
The past four years he has won four, six, one and five titles, an average of four titles per year. He already has two in 2015 (Brisbane and Dubai), so it’s not unreasonable that he can win 2-4 more titles before 2016. Say that puts him at 87 titles. Three more years could get him to 100 career titles and then the chase for Connors.
Who’s going to catch him?
Spanish Crusade: The Case for Nadal
The middle act is often darker, edgier and more enigmatic. Nadal has been an alternative counter hero, seemingly built to demoralize the Federer Express. During Federer’s peak, it was Nadal who stood up and clubbed back the champion, planting his own banner into red clay and defending his beloved turf as if planet Earth were at stake.
He has amassed 65 titles, but with a less predictable series of peaks and valleys, often indomitable but always vulnerable. There have been countless injuries and just as many comebacks. He is a fiery comet, blazing through the landscape, but he's poised to crash.
Since he was the undisputed king of tennis in 2010, Nadal has slipped a bit in three of the past four years, turning out three, four, 10 and four titles. Maybe 2013 was the outlier, a final resurgence to win those 10 titles and maybe Nadal will “only” average 3-4 titles per year. If he averages four titles over the next five years, it will put him right in Federer’s current moment in time. And that likely would not be enough.
If Nadal is to outrun Federer with tennis’ marathon standard, he will need to run faster than four titles per year. If he can average 6.5 titles per year over five years, he would be pushing 100 career titles.
It will require sustained excellence and health for starters, including success on hard courts. If hard courts do not go well, he might reincarnate into Thomas Muster and set up a world tour of clay, swooping in for tournaments like Argentina, Bastad, Umag, Kitzbuhel and Gstaad. The problem is that lately he has been broken down following Wimbledon, because Hamburg should be a part of his schedule.
So it’s possible he could hit triple digits, but it’s also possible that Nadal’s body could continue to recede and another wave of players pass him by. And then there is the matter of Djokovic.
Serbian Surge: The Case for Djokovic
Compared to Nadal, who will always be Djokovic’s greatest measuring stick, the Serbian is a late bloomer. Now he has put together the most complete, devastating ground attack from the baseline. He is in great shape, steely tough and possesses all the qualifications of heart and mind worthy of the best player in the world.
However, his 49 titles is two more great years from tying Nadal at 65, even if Nadal were to suddenly hang up his sliding shoes. Djokovic has poured it on with 10, six, seven and seven titles the past four years. He will need to average about 7.5 titles over the next five years to land at Federer’s current mark in the mid 80s.
He does have some advantages over his more legendary predecessors. He can win on all surfaces from Monte Carlo’s clay to Shanghai’s speedier indoors conditions. He is consistently healthy, and he rebounds quickly from minor injuries.
Until another player or two from the next generation begins a new era of tennis, the final chapter in the historic Big Three trilogy will likely be Djokovic’s opportunity to paint the resolution.
The biggest problem is that there might be too much ground to make up. Then again, players are extending their careers, and if David Ferrer can keep pocketing titles, surely Djokovic could cruise into his mid-30s with an extension on his career peak. If all breaks well, he can get to 100, and then he might be more motivated to catch the (probably) retired Federer and (possibly) worn-down Nadal.
Djokovic has shown the kind of energy, determination and desire to keep winning. It’s hard to see him let up any year soon.
Denouement: Something Has to Give
Maybe Federer packs it in early or maybe he continues to win titles. Perhaps Djokovic can indeed make that surge. But a lot of this could be sorted out if we could predict what will happen with Nadal.
Somehow, Nadal could be the keystone to deciding this race.
A Djokovic surge will be much more difficult if the King of Clay continues this domination into the next decade. On the other hand, an injury-riddled Nadal could allow Djokovic to make up time and titles.
Or maybe Federer will break the 100-title tape, look back and see that the next young wave of tennis players has finally arrived.
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