NFL Free Agents 2015: The All-Risk Team

NFL free agency is a time of boundless optimism for fans and front office executives, as every signing indicates that a Super Bowl championship is on the horizon and every player brought in will one day be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame.

But the stark reality is that many of the signings won't work out, and for a cavalcade of different reasons. Almost every player comes with some level of risk—and some with substantially more than others.

In compiling the All-Risk team for 2015 NFL free agency, there was a simple set of criteria: Does the player possess significant risk either related to on- or off-field concerns? Does the player have a history of injuries? Is the player advancing in age? And is the required on-field production present?

If the answer to any of these questions was "yes," the player was considered for inclusion. And if multiple boxes were checked off, chances are he's on this list.

Here is the 2015 All-Risk team for NFL free agency, featuring an honorable mention at each position to round things out.

QB: Mark Sanchez

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Out of all the positions on this list, quarterback was the easiest to fill. Why? Because Philadelphia's Mark Sanchez is a living, breathing risk at the position who plays hot potato with both the pigskin and fan emotions.

Sanchez tossed 11 interceptions last year in eight starts for the Eagles (4-4 record) and looked as if he had financial escalators in his contract for turning the ball over. He has moments of brilliance, but those moments are mitigated by gruesome decision-making and inaccurate throws.

In his career, he's thrown 82 touchdown passes against 80 interceptions. Are those numbers that dictate Sanchez deserves to be on a roster? Absolutely. But any team looking to sign Sanchez to be "The Guy" is taking an insane risk, playboy.

Sign Sanchez to be a backup. That's cool. We're all for it. Honestly, that's a smart move, and not a risk. But as a starter? Heck no.

RB: DeMarco Murray

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Let us be crystal clear about the inclusion of Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray on this list: We think Murray is one of the finest backs in the league, capable of both brutalizing and running past opposing defenders with aplomb. And really, we'd be nuts to question his on-field ability, as Murray just led the league in rushing with 1,845 yards.

But we simply must acknowledge the risk that comes with a team signing Murray to a big-money contract in the coming weeks—not doing so would be irresponsible at best and egregiously wrong at worst.

Murray is coming off a season in which he toted the rock a league-high 392 (392!!) times. Yes, that is a very large number. While he played in all 16 regular-season games and both playoff tilts, it was the first season in which Murray didn't miss any time. Does that mean Murray will have a clean bill of health for the remainder of his career? These things are difficult to project, but at age 27, the smart money would be on "probably not."

This isn't to say that Murray can't or won't be a stud for the next team that signs him—on the contrary, actually, as we think he'll be excellent. But there can be no denying the injury risk associated with Murray, especially as the carries continue to pile on and the overall wear and tear continues. 

WR: Torrey Smith

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

There's no question that Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith is a big-game player, having helped lead the team to a Super Bowl championship following the 2012 season.

But is his overall body of work strong enough to merit an exorbitant contract on the free-agent market? Ehh...we think that'd be a little risky, homie.

In 2014, Smith caught only 49 passes (albeit 11 for touchdowns), and he's never caught more than 65 passes in a season. He does have excellent speed and is a powerful weapon as a deep threat, but really, what other skills does he possess as a receiver?

Last offseason, one NFL general manager told ESPN.com's Mike Sando (via ESPN's Jamison Hensley) that Smith is "a bit of a one-trick pony (as a downfield threat)," which is consistent with our earlier take and was proved again over the course of the 2014 campaign.

Having a receiver that can stretch the field is vital, and Smith brings that to the table in spades. But any team thinking about bestowing him with a big-money contract should be aware of the inherent risk, as it won't be getting a complete receiver.

TE: Julius Thomas

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Yes, we are aware that Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas went in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft last year. And yes, we're also aware that Thomas has caught 24 touchdown passes over the last two seasons, thank you very much.

But with that said: Isn't it fair to assume that Thomas' numbers will shrink once he's outside of the glorious bubble that is a Peyton Manning-led offense?

Thomas has proved to be a red-zone nightmare for opposing defenses, so it stands to reason that he'll take that ability to any team that's willing to fork over big money to sign him. The question is if he can perform at an elite level if he goes to a team that isn't stacked with offensive firepower like the Broncos have been.

If Thomas lands in, say, Atlanta, his numbers should be just fine. But if he goes to an unproven offense like Jacksonville or Oakland, look out, as there's simply no way to be confident that A) he can get the job done, or B) that he'll be worth the vast amount of greenbacks.

OL: Ryan Harris

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Ryan Harris started 15 games for the club last season—and at age 29, it would seem that he still has good football left ahead of him.

Harris is slated to hit the free-agent market, and there's always a market for the services of a competent tackle. But Harris really didn't play all that well in 2014, finishing the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' 38th-best tackle.

Harris finished with negative grades in both run and pass blocking. He has played a full 16-game season only four times in eight years. While he's serviceable, any team looking for him to boost its roster is chasing a ghost.

DE: Greg Hardy

Chris Keane/Associated Press

When it comes to on-field production, Carolina Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy is an absolute star. He notched 26 sacks from 2012-2013 and looked to be ascending into the stratosphere of elite pass-rushers.

But charges stemming from a domestic violence case limited him to only one game in 2014, and Bill Voth of the Black and Blue Review recently reported that the Panthers are ready to move on from the 26-year-old Hardy. 

Although the charges were recently dropped, it's currently unclear what (if any) further discipline Hardy will face from the league. A resolution is expected soon, per Joseph Person of The Charlotte Observer.

If there's anything that NFL teams have proved, it's that they'll take a shot on an ultra-talented player who might come with some (or a lot of) off-field baggage. And Hardy certainly fits that bill, as a demonic pass-rusher of his ilk doesn't hit the market too often.

Expect Hardy to sign a big-money deal, and any team that gets him will probably be thrilled with his on-field production. But his off-field foibles should make any general manager think twice before opening up the financial war chest to bring Hardy into the fold.

DT: Nick Fairley

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

While Ndamukong Suh is the Detroit Lions defensive tackle on the receiving end of all the hype heading into free agency (and with good reason), his battery mate, Nick Fairley, is also set to hit the market.

And while Fairley possesses oodles of physical talent (enough that he was the 13th overall pick of the 2011 draft), he's not nearly the player that Suh is. And while it's probably unfair to compare anyone to a star of Suh's stature, it's difficult not to considering they've played next to each other for the past four seasons.

And in those four years, Fairley failed to play a full 16-game season. He missed eight games in 2014, only notching one sack. While he did finish as Pro Football Focus' 18th-ranked defensive tackle, his lack of production and injury history should scare off prospective suitors.

Fairley is young (27) and talented enough to get another shot, but anyone expecting him to live up to his lofty draft status should be fitted for a straitjacket.

LB: Brian Orakpo

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Coming into the 2014 season, it appeared as if Washington Redskins linebacker Brian Orakpo was ready to author a masterful campaign.

In 2013, he tallied 10 sacks and played well enough to get slapped with the franchise tag. But he couldn't come close to matching that production in a bitterly disappointing 2014 season in which he only played in seven games and notched half a sack.

That's right. Half a sack in seven games for the team's franchise player. Yikes.

There's no doubting Orakpo's physical ability—he was the 13th overall pick of the 2009 draft for a reason. But the bottom line is Orakpo has only played 16 games in a season twice in his six-year career and has only notched double-digit sacks twice as well.

Orakpo finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' 22nd-best outside linebacker—which isn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, but when you're on the franchise tag, more is expected than that. 

There is most definitely a team out there in need of an edge-rusher that will take a shot on Orakpo, but we'd urge all franchises to be aware of the risk that he brings to the field. He simply hasn't lived up to his lofty potential, and at age 28, it's unclear whether he ever will.

CB: Byron Maxwell

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

If you asked 10 knowledgeable NFL fans who the best cornerback slated to hit the free-agent market is, all 10 would likely answer with Byron Maxwell of the Seattle Seahawks.

After all, Maxwell was part of the famed "Legion of Boom" secondary and starred on a national stage as the Seahawks came within a play of winning back-to-back Super Bowls.

But a closer look reveals a player that probably isn't quite as good as the hype would indicate. Maxwell finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' 45th-best cornerback, which would belie the notion that he's an elite player.

Is Maxwell a solid player? Definitely. But is it also fair to say that he wouldn't be as highly regarded if he didn't play opposite all-world studs like Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor? We believe that to be the case.

Any team that signs Maxwell will be getting a very good player—just not a great one. And for the $8 million to $10 million price tag he's likely to command, we're not sure that the value is all the way there.

S: Antrel Rolle

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Safety Antrel Rolle will always hold a special place in the hearts of New York Giants fans, as he helped the team win Super Bowl XLVI and has generally played well since being signed by Big Blue prior to the 2010 season.

Rolle intercepted 14 passes in five seasons on Broadway and provided outstanding leadership. But at age 32, it's likely that his best days are behind him.

Indeed, Rolle finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' 81st-best safety. And no, despite any opinions to the contrary, that is not good.

NJ.com's Jordan Raanan doesn't believe the Giants will re-sign Rolle, and that makes sense for a team desperate to inject playmaking ability into a moribund defense. While Rolle has proved to be durable (he never missed a start for the Giants), teams must factor in his age and declining play and ascertain whether he's worth the risk.

ST: Matt Prater

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Update: Friday, March 6, at 11:50 a.m. ET

Matt Prater was re-signed by the Detroit Lions to a three-year, $9 million deal, according to Mike Klis of The Denver Post. 

----- End of update -----

The Detroit Lions had a revolving door at place-kicker last year before they signed former Denver Bronco Matt Prater, and he somewhat stabilized the position, going 21-for-26 on field-goal attempts in 11 games.

While he possesses a big leg (Prater booted a 64-yard field goal in 2013, the longest in NFL history), he also comes with off-field baggage, as he was suspended for the first four games of the 2014 season for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. To Prater's credit, he entered rehab while suspended, and he was an above-average option for the Lions once he signed in Motown.

But Prater was only good enough to finish as Pro Football Focus' 26th-ranked kicker, and given his off-field history, does it really make sense for a team to name Prater as "The Guy" when other options are out there?

Honorable Mentions

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Since this is the All-Risk team being compiled, we're going to fill out the rest of the 11-man starting lineup here with players who just (Bob Uecker in Major League voice) missed the cut.

Quarterback: Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans

Locker possesses mouth-watering physical ability but simply cannot stay healthy, having missed 23 games over the past three seasons.

Running Back: Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

Mathews is talented when he's on the field, but that's just the problem—he's not always on the field. He's played a full 16-game season just once and has earned the label of "injury-prone back."

Wide Receiver: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

We acknowledge that Maclin is much more likely to dazzle than fizzle for the team that signs him, but there is an injury risk. He missed the entire the 2013 season with a torn ACL.

Tight End: Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns

Cameron is a stud when he's on the field, but a scary concussion limited him to only nine starts in 2014. Is it possible he'll be fine moving forward? Yes. But that is most definitely a concern, and he's also never played 16 games in a season.

Offensive Line: James Carpenter, G, Seattle Seahawks

The one-time first-round pick finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' 47th-best guard.

Defensive End: Anthony Spencer, Dallas Cowboys

The one-time franchise player notched only half a sack in 13 games (zero starts) last year.

Defensive Tackle: Terrence Cody, Baltimore Ravens

Cody was talented enough to be the 57th overall selection in the 2010 draft, but he was also enough of a knucklehead to be released by the Ravens shortly after the 2014 season concluded.

Linebacker: Rolando McClain, Dallas Cowboys

McClain revived his career in 2014 with the Cowboys, but he is in line to be suspended for the first four games of the 2015 season for violating the league's substance-abuse policy.

Cornerback: Cary Williams, Philadelphia Eagles

Williams didn't endear himself to Eagles brass with his criticism of coach Chip Kelly, and then he finished year ranked as Pro Football Focus' 49th-best cornerback.

Safety: Rahim Moore, Denver Broncos

Best known for his involvement in this infamous play, Moore finished 2014 ranked as Pro Football Focus' 46th-best safety.

Kicker: Mike Nugent, Cincinnati Bengals

Nugent went only 26-of-33 on field-goal attempts in 2014.

 

Nick Kostos is a featured NFL columnist for Bleacher Report and a host for Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM. Follow Nick on Twitter here and become a fan of his on Facebook here.