Fantasy Baseball 2015: Round 1 Mock Draft, Sleepers to Watch to Win Your League

There are several keys to winning a fantasy baseball league, but two things in particular can make or break your season.

For starter's, you have to hit a home run with your pick in Round 1. This has to be a superstar who will deliver numbers that justify a pick in the top 12 by year's end. These are normally the guys who hit 25-plus homers, drive in 100 runs, steal a few bags and still manage to hit in the ballpark of .300. Of course, exceptions can be made.

Secondly, capitalizing on sleepers in the later rounds, when other owners are trying to grab reclamation projects and bounce-back candidates, can net you a potential star. Breakouts can come in the form of top prospects, late-bloomers or veterans in new places, so owners have to be diligent when pinpointing which sleepers have higher probabilities of success.

But there are always the Jose Bautistas of the world, who break out with 54 homers (2010) after hitting just 49 combined during the six seasons prior.

Doing your homework is important when it comes to pre-draft preparation. If you're looking for a good place to start, then read on.

Mock Round 1

Pick	Player	Position	Team
1	Mike Trout	OF	Angels
2	Miguel Cabrera	1B	Tigers
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	Diamondbacks
4	Clayton Kershaw	SP	Dodgers
5	Jose Abreu	1B	White Sox
6	Carlos Gomez	OF	Brewers
7	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	Marlins
8	Andrew McCutchen	OF	Pirates
9	Jose Bautista	OF	Blue Jays
10	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	Blue Jays
11	Anthony Rizzo	1B	Cubs
12	Felix Hernandez	SP	Mariners

As you can see from the above table, Mike Trout is the No. 1 commodity entering the season. Miguel Cabrera is a close second, but Trout's potential for stolen bases (even though he only tallied 16 last season) propel him to the top spot.

First basemen and outfielders are also abundant in this mock. Paul Goldschmidt is a lock for the first round, while the likes of Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion and Anthony Rizzo have legitimate shots as well. In terms of outfielders, Bautista, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gomez can all make strong bids to go in the top 12.

Guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Robinson Cano could sneak into the first round in some drafts given the lack of depth at shortstop and second base, but it's not worth the risk. Tulowitzki is a walking injury risk (he has played just 264 games the last three seasons), and Cano's numbers dropped off last season (even though they were still impressive).

In terms of pitchers, there are only two names owners should consider in Round 1: Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. Kershaw is a lock, while Hernandez is a borderline first-rounder. There are enough high-value pitching options to hold off until Round 4 or 5 to begin filling out a roster with arms.

Some owners might look to take Chris Sale, David Price or even Corey Kluber that early. Let them. You'll reap the benefits of their stretch later on in the draft.

Sleepers

Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Second base is a position with a good number of question marks outside the top four of the position (Cano, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve and Ian Kinsler). Guys like Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison and others are not guarantees to repeat their success from 2014.

If you're so inclined, you can pass on a second baseman until possibly Round 15 (or maybe even later, depending on the other owners in your league). Waiting until later allows you to beef up other areas before grabbing Kolten Wong, one of the top sleepers of the upcoming season.

The 24-year-old slashed just .249/.292/.388 last season, but expect the on-base percentage to rise with more experience. He swiped 20 bags while clearing the fences 12 times and driving in 42 runs. The St. Louis Cardinals are banking on improvement across the board.

One thing stood out about the youngster, though. His ability to drive home runners in scoring position with two outs was astounding for a second-year player. In 48 plate appearances during those situations, he slashed .341/.396/.500 with 21 RBI.

He was also stellar in October, racking up seven extra-base hits (three home runs) in eight games between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants—including this walk-off against San Fran:

"October did a lot for me," Wong told Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "It cleared my conscience of what happened (the pickoff) in the World Series. It gave me assurance that I can play at this level. And it gave me confidence knowing that if I just play the way I’m capable of playing, I should be here for a long time, helping this team win and get back to October every year."

The confidence he built up during October should carry through to the upcoming campaign. Wong had to battle last spring to win the job from Mark Ellis before a trip to the disabled list and a stint in the minors during the regular season hurt his chances at finding consistency.

Now the job is all his. Look for him to capitalize and play like a top-six second baseman.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Kole Calhoun is going to score a ton of runs hitting out of the leadoff spot for the Los Angeles Angels.

The 27-year-old touched home 90 times in just 127 games last season. With a full 150-game season, Calhoun might score close to 110 times with Mike Trout and Albert Pujols hitting behind him.

But he's not your typical leadoff man, outside of his propensity to score runs. He has atypical power from the No. 1 spot in the lineup and isn't a blazing speedster. 

"In 109 games as the leadoff hitter, Calhoun hit .281 with 17 home runs," MLB.com's William Boor wrote, further explaining his rare power. "Just six other teams were able to hit as many or more homers out of the leadoff spot in the entire 162-game slate."

Assuming he maintains the same level of production next season but plays in 150 games, Calhoun could easily total 22 homers, 75 RBI, 10 steals and 40 doubles. Add in a slash line near .275/.335/.455, and you've got an every-week starter for your outfield.

But that's only if he maintains this production. Imagine how much more valuable he could be if he continues to progress.

He's already 27, though, and what you see is generally what you get with players at this point in their careers. Then again, Bautista bloomed very late.

Regardless, Calhoun is an outfielder you want on your team. He'll quietly put in solid work for your team.

Drew Smyly, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The new-look Tampa Bay Rays are banking on a lot of young guys with potential this season, and 25-year-old Drew Smyly is one of them. He'll be the team's No. 3 starter to begin the season, per the team's official Twitter account:

"

Cash said Cobb will be followed in the rotation by @ChrisArcher42, @SmylyD and @JakeOdorizzi. No word yet on fifth starter.

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) March 4, 2015"

A relatively small number of people appreciate Smyly as a starter. Sure, he has a career ERA of 2.47 in 87.1 innings out of the pen, but his numbers as a starter are also worth noting.

Look past his 12-13 record in 43 starts. Instead look at his 3.55 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 8.0 strikeouts-per-nine-innings and 3.19 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. He isn't a hard-thrower, but Smyly's array of pitchers are deceptive enough to keep hitters guessing.

Plus, his career ERA of 3.26 is supported by an FIP of 3.45.

Following the deadline trade that sent him to Tampa last season, Smyly wowed the team in seven starts. He went 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 0.755 WHIP. While those numbers aren't sustainable for someone not named Kershaw, Smyly is still someone who has value on your team.

As a possible pick in Round 18 or later, Smyly has an outside shot at providing 180 innings after a career-high 153 frames in 2014. An ERA in the mid-threes and possibly 12 wins will make him worthy of a roster spot.

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn