Breaking Down the Free-Agency Market and Reality for DeMarco Murray

A generation or two ago, DeMarco Murray's value as a free agent would have been off the charts. After all, the running back position was still elite then and Murray is a 27-year-old back coming off a season in which he won Offensive Player of the Year while leading the league in rushing by a 484-yard margin. 

But times have changed and backs aren't valued the way they once were, which is why the Dallas Cowboys prioritized keeping wide receiver Dez Bryant over Murray this offseason. Bryant's been hit with the franchise tag, while team vice president Stephen Jones admits—per Fox Sports Southwest—that Murray will likely hit the open market on March 10. 

Unsurprisingly, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reports that there's only a "slim chance" the All-Pro returns to the Cowboys. 

Let's break down why that's the case and where Murray may be moving to in the near future. 

Why he might not mean much to Dallas

ESPN's Ed Werder reported on Tuesday that Murray would consider returning to the Cowboys if he were to receive an offer "equal or similar to" what he attracts on the open market, which makes a lot of sense considering how much success he's had in Dallas as well as the fact the Cowboys are contenders. Plus, moving is, like, the worst. 

Still, there's a very good chance Murray will have to pack it all up and call Mayflower because it just doesn't make a lot of sense for the Cowboys to pay him big bucks. 

Not only is Murray coming off a season in which he touched the ball more than all but five backs in NFL history, but he was working within an offense that has been manufactured so that backs will have success regardless of their track records. 

Murray likely benefited greatly by running behind arguably the best offensive line in football in 2014. With Pro Bowlers Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick dominating, it can't be considered that surprising that he was able to put together a career year.

Position	Player	Age	Round drafted	Pro Bowler?
Left tackle	Tyron Smith	24	1st	Yes
Left guard	Ronald Leary	25	UD	No
Center	Travis Frederick	24	1st	Yes
Right guard	Zack Martin	24	1st	Yes
Right tackle	Doug Free	31	4th	No

As long as that line is intact and Pro Bowlers Tony Romo and Bryant are playing catch in the passing game, the Cowboys would be silly to invest heavily at the running back position. Proof of that comes from Murray's backup, Joseph Randle, who in 2014 had the highest yards-per-attempt average in the NFL among backs with at least 50 carries.

Back	YPA
1. Joseph Randle	6.7
2. Darren Sproles	5.8
3. Justin Forsett	5.4
4. Latavius Murray	5.2
5. Lamar Miller	5.1
6. Jeremy Hill	5.1
7. Juwan Thompson	5.0
8. Jamaal Charles	5.0
9. Arian Foster	4.8
10. Jerick McKinnon	4.8

That's not to say that Randle, who excelled within a small sample size and faces off-field questions, can step in and do exactly what Murray did in 2014, but a committee backfield should be capable of producing to a similar degree. Smith, Martin and Frederick are each only 24 years old, so that line should only become better. 

The Cowboys also have a ton of potential holes to fill on defense, especially with Henry Melton, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant and Rolando McClain slated to hit free agency and just $6.5 million in salary-cap space, per Over the Cap. Re-signing Murray just isn't worth it. 

Why he'd be a risky addition anywhere

Again, this has become the ultimate pass-happy era, and backs have the shortest shelf lives in football. Everyone knows that you buy low and sell high, particularly with players at the running back position. And although Murray is only 27, he's coming off one of the most punishing seasons a back has ever faced. 

Murray could fall victim to what Football Outsiders calls the "Curse of 370," which, based on countless examples, posits that "a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson."

In 2014, Murray carried the ball 392 times, which was tied for the seventh-highest total in NFL history. And when you look at those surrounding him on the all-time single-season carries list, it's easy to become concerned: 

Back	Year/age	Beyond that...
Larry Johnson (416)	'06/26	Missed half of '07, never had 1,000 yards again
Jamal Anderson (410)	'98/25	Missed 14 games in '99, 3.6 YPA rest of career
James Wilder (407)	'84/26	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
Eric Dickerson (404)	'86/26	Three more 1,000-yard seasons
Eddie George (403)	'00/26	Averaged 3.4 YPA rest of his career
Gerald Riggs (397)	'85/24	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
DeMarco Murray (392)	'14/26	?
Terrell Davis (392)	'98/26	Played only 16 more games
Ricky Williams (392)	'03/26	One 1,000-yard season the rest of his career
Barry Foster (390)	'92/23	Played only two more sub-1,000-yard years

Murray also has a reputation for getting hurt easily, and the fact he was able to make it through that rigorous 2014 campaign with only a broken hand could be somewhat of a fluke. He missed 11 games during his first three seasons with ankle, foot and knee injuries, and it might only be a matter of time before health problems catch up with him again, especially after a season like that.

He even showed signs of slowing down as the 2014 season wore on:

Category	First 12 weeks (rank)	Last 5 weeks (rank)
Rushing yards/game	123.1 (1st)	98.2 (1st)
Yards/attempt	5.1 (4th)	3.9 (19th)
Touchdowns	7 (3rd)	6 (2nd)
Yards after contact	781 (1st)	217 (10th)

So there are some clear red flags. 

Someone oughta be willing to overpay 

The salary cap shot up by approximately $10 million this offseason, giving teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts over $40 million each to spend. 

All of those teams would benefit greatly from the addition of a bell cow like Murray. The Jags have the most cap space in the league and are looking for a new top back after getting limited production from Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart last season, so it wasn't surprising to see Rapoport list Jacksonville as a top potential landing spot. When you're desperate to improve and you've got nearly $70 million to spend, you can take risks on players like Murray. 

Rapoport also mentions the Arizona Cardinals, who make a lot of sense because they could be a playoff team if they can remain relatively healthy, and they averaged a league-low 3.3 yards per carry last season.

Murray's the type of back who could single-handedly take that offense to another level. His talents wouldn't be wasted in a dud of an offense and he could be a difference-maker. Plus, with about $13.5 million in cap space, the Cardinals could easily make it happen. 

The Colts have a thing for running backs and money to spend

Another factor to consider is that Murray has strongly indicated he wants to play for a contender. 

“It’s not about the yards for me,” he told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram last month. “It’s about winning a Super Bowl. If this place gives me the best chance I’m going to stay here. Winning a Super Bowl means more than anything.”

That's what makes the Indianapolis Colts such an intriguing potential destination. Because not only are the Colts a contender with quarterback Andrew Luck, but they're one of those teams with an exceptional amount of cap space. They can afford to splurge on a risky addition like Murray, out-muscling the Cowboys and anyone with less cap room while looking more attractive than teams like the Jaguars or Cardinals. 

We all know how much Colts general manager Ryan Grigson wants a stud running back. Indy gave up a first-round pick in order to get Trent Richardson from the Browns two years ago, and it's been widely reported that the Colts are going to heavily pursue impending San Francisco 49ers free agent Frank Gore. 

Murray would be the ultimate backfield prize for the Colts and would have a chance to excel within that offense. Don't be surprised if Grigson makes him an offer he can't refuse. 

But don't be surprised if he's low-balled

Among the 13 backs who ran for 1,000 yards in 2014, only one—Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks—was drafted in the first round, and eight were still playing under their rookie contracts.

Undrafted free agent Arian Foster rushed for more yards than anyone in the game except Adrian Peterson between 2010 and 2012. Sixth-round pick Alfred Morris rushed for more yards than anyone except Lynch between 2012 and 2014. 

It's just so easy to find replacements for quality backs these days that very few teams are willing to give veteran backs lucrative second contracts. 

That explains why, for example, the Denver Broncos let Knowshon Moreno walk last offseason and why Moreno—coming off of a season in which he ran for over 1,000 yards as part of a Super Bowl team—could only land a one-year, $3 million deal with the Miami Dolphins in free agency.

Things have changed so drastically that Murray has no chance at a deal like the seven-year, $97 million pact Peterson signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2011. Since then, teams like the Carolina Panthers, the Titans and the Philadelphia Eagles have made mistakes by giving big money to backs DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy, all of whom have hit walls. 

That is why it wouldn't be surprising to see the Colts—with eyes on looming extensions for Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton—show some restraint. And how many of those other cap-rich teams—all of whom have been known to pinch pennies—might instead prefer to save cash by pursuing afterthought free-agent backs like Justin Forsett, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews or Gore? 

That's the thing. Murray could soon find out he isn't worth any more than the four-year, $16 million deal the Cowboys reportedly had on the table months ago. And while he's bound to get at least a slightly sexier offer elsewhere, he should consider a hometown discount in Dallas, where he'd continue to benefit from the protection of a great passing game and a loaded offensive line while contending for championships. 

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has already stated that they'd give him a lighter workload in 2015, so if Murray's looking at playing as long as he can while capitalizing on his prime, Dallas might still be his best destination, even at a discounted rate. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon