2015 NFL Draft: Who's Trending In, Out of 1st Round?
Should we put much stock in NFL draft stock?
One of my favorite truisms about draft season is that teams know infinitely more about what's coming than the rest of us. That doesn't necessarily mean they're always smarter or that plenty of teams won't mess it up, but they're connected to a player's value from step one far more than the rest of us—no matter how hard we try.
Frankly, that's good, because it's their job.
Yet there's also something to be said about the process. The process means certain teams will wise up to certain players throughout draft season, and that certainly happens with punctuated equilibrium around events such as underclassman declaration, all-star games, the combine and pro days.
Moreover, teams focus in on needs a little more once the season is over, and scouts redouble efforts on players due to their supervisors' preferences.
So, there is some shifting on most teams' boards—even right up until draft day—but it's almost never with the wild swings we see with the media and fans. That said, as we take a look at players trending in and out of the first round, we'll mostly be looking at instances where the media is catching up to their counterparts in the league.
Players picked for the list will be those who have stood out so far in the draft process in either positive or negative ways—either confirming their play on tape or casting huge doubts about it.
Trending In: Jordan Phillips (DT Oklahoma)
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While Jordan Phillips has been in and out of the first round every couple of mock drafts or so, back-injury issues have kept many in the media from going all-in on the Sooners big man. Yet his fantastic fit in either 3-4 or 4-3 will likely make him a coveted prospect for almost any team, and he worked out pretty well.
Most of all, NFL Media's Mike Mayock gave Phillips the first-rounder cred he needed in an interview with Sports Illustrated, and Mayock is uniquely connected within NFL circles, so he's likely forming that opinion alongside what he's hearing from his many contacts.
Trending Out: Devin Funchess (WR/TE Michigan)
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When one runs a 4.7 flat in the 40-yard dash as a supposed wide receiver, it's hard to expect anything but a tumble.
Previously, Devin Funchess got the benefit of the doubt thanks to his frame, physical skills and the ineptitude both of the Michigan offense and of his quarterback. With a terrible time, though, it's pretty clear he's not going to enjoy the kind of separation at the pro level he had against lesser competition in Ann Arbor.
The one thing buoying Funchess' stock is his potential as a tight end candidate. It's a weak class with only Minnesota's Maxx Williams projecting as a first-rounder, and Funchess could appeal to teams as a joker-style, off-the-line, pass-catching tight end.
Trending In: Jalen Collins (CB LSU)
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Much like with the inside linebacker group, the NFL is dying for a few cornerbacks to step into the limelight. While Michigan State's Trae Waynes did his best to solidify himself as the lead dog in that group, a few guys such as Washington's Marcus Peters and Jalen Collins did well to insert themselves into first-round consideration.
For Collins, running a tremendous 40 (4.48) at his size (6'1", 203 lbs) is going to put him in the conversation of a lot of recent LSU corners who have been successful in the NFL. The NFL is searching for bigger but athletic defensive backs, and Collins fits that profile as well as anyone in this class.
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Trending Out: Benardrick McKinney (ILB Mississippi State)
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Take your pick.
It's a rough crop for interior linebackers in this class, and many draft experts have been looking at Benardrick McKinney as one of the top three alongside UCLA's Eric Kendricks and Miami's Denzel Perryman. At that point, with so many teams needing help at the position, it was assumed one of those guys would get into the first, so why not McKinney?
Jackson, Mississippi's own Clarion-Ledger took a look around the web after the combine and came up with this conclusion: "Benardrick McKinney, who had been projected as a first-round pick since he declared, fell out of the first-round projections."
Adding:
"McKinney left the Combine with inconsistent performances. He began the weekend with only 16 reps in the bench press, which was the fewest of any linebacker. The average total for the position this year was 23.
He then ran a slow 40-yard dash in his first attempt at 4.78 (unofficial). He bounced back with a 4.69 on his second attempt, which was also unofficial. When official times were registered, he ran a 4.66 -- a good time.
The inconsistencies continued in other drills where he finished with one of the better vertical jumps but turned in average measurements in the rest of the drills.
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Trending In: Alvin 'Bud' Dupree (LB/DE Kentucky)
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This is less "taking the temperature" of my media peers and more calling my shot, because I've personally had Alvin "Bud" Dupree as a first-rounder for a while.
Dupree had one of the most athletic combines of anyone in Indianapolis. In fact, Chase Stuart of Football Perspective adjusted the results to the prospects' weights and found that Dupree's broad jump was even more impressive than Connecticut corner Byron Jones' record-shattering leap.
It's a loaded exterior pass-rushing crop, and many of them will struggle with the "tweener" label that can still scare teams away. In Dupree's case, his athleticism should allow him to insert himself into the discussion for a lot of teams.
Trending Out: Shaq Thompson (LB Washington)
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When one watches film on Shaq Thompson, it's natural to want to give him a high grade.
The dude is a sparkplug on offense, defense and special teams. In fact, he might be the top special teams player in the entire draft and one of the best running backs. He is also considered one of the top 4-3 linebacker prospects.
Thompson himself wrote in a draft diary for USAToday.com after his combine performance:
"The question I kept hearing from teams in the interviews was, 'What would you rather play: running back or linebacker?' They wanted to make sure my heart was on defense and not on offense. I've just got to stand my ground really and keep telling everybody that I want to play defense, and especially the linebacker position.
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The problem, though, is when one really starts to dig into that last part. See, the linebacker tape on Thompson isn't that good. He's athletic, yes, but he gets hung up on blocks, doesn't always correctly diagnose the play and catches rather than tackles.
If I'm drafting good ball players, Thompson stays in the first round, but if I'm looking for a linebacker, he falls a long way.
Trending In: Dorial Green-Beckham (WR Missouri)
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When you're this athletic...
I don't want to make light of Dorial Green-Beckham's off-the-field issues. The former Missouri Tiger and once-top high school prospect spent the past year not playing football with the Oklahoma Sooners and generally just trying to stay on the fringe of people's radars.
Then, the combine happened.
At DGB's size and with his athleticism, teams will find a reason to fall in love. After the Big Three wide receivers many consider at the top of the first round, DGB is the clear No. 4 prospect even with his character red flags.
Frankly, if he were a model citizen, he could likely go top five.
Trending Out: Melvin Gordon (RB Wisconsin)
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I was a huge fan of Melvin Gordon during his college career.
The former Badger was incredibly productive behind a fantastic offensive line and did a lot of good work in the open field. He's got some natural one-cut ability and showcases enough wiggle to make many defenders miss.
The problem, though, is that a lot of Gordon's ability in college was finding his way into the open field and then accelerating faster than everyone around him. A 4.52 40-yard dash, though, means he won't be pulling away from anyone in the big leagues and his third-down back skills aren't good enough to make up for that deficiency.
Trending In: D.J. Humphries (OT Florida)
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NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah (via NFL.com's Bryan Fischer) and our own Matt Miller have been on this bandwagon for a while, and it's about time for all of us to jump on.
While many of the other top tackle prospects may be OK on the left side and can either slide to the right or inside to guard as a fallback option, D.J. Humphries has all of the size, strength and technique to play on the left side for years to come.
One of the best offensive line scouts around—Lance Zierlein of NFL.com—used New York Jets tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson as his NFL comparison, which is really all you need to know.
Trending In: Eli Harold (OLB Virginia)
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Eli Harold has spent most of the draft season lost in the shuffle of the extremely talented pass-rushing crop, but he's quickly gaining traction in both the established media and #DraftTwitter with a good pro day and combine performance.
Harold can play either 3-4 OLB or defensive end, and he would likely shine at either. In fact, he shone while doing both at his recent pro day, and it has restarted much of the buzz from prior to Indianapolis. With so many teams either looking for a pass-rusher or at least having use for one on their roster, he's very likely to go in the first round.
Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report, a writer for Football Insiders and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.
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