Predicting Winners and Losers of Spring Training Entering Start of Games
After another long, cold winter, baseball season is finally upon us.
As usual, spring training will be our first opportunity to catch a glimpse of MLB's hottest stories. While the games may not matter in the standings, each contest should provide baseball fans with important evidence to a handful of the hottest questions around the league.
As we progress toward Opening Day, we will see instances where players have used the spring as a jumping-off point for their respective seasons.
Whether that's a younger player trying to crack a roster, like Henry Owens of the Boston Red Sox, or a fallen star hoping to regain some of his former stature, like Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees, March exhibition games can go a long way toward a successful campaign in 2015.
Likewise, spring baseball often worsens already deteriorating situations. Will unhappy and unproductive stars like Melvin Upton Jr. and Andre Ethier become the latest examples to fail to improve their situations in spring camp?
Read on to find out!
Loser No. 3: Melvin Upton Jr.
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No MLB player has ever needed a solid spring training more than Melvin (B.J.) Upton of the Atlanta Braves.
Since signing a five-year, $75 million contract before the 2013 season, Upton has become a shell of his former self. He's hit just .198 with a .279 OBP in his two seasons in Atlanta. He ranks dead last in wRC+ among qualified hitters, and his strikeout percentage of 31.5 percent is second-worst in the league over that span.
Of course, Upton was famously brought in with his brother Justin in the winter of 2013. The Braves won the NL East in 2013, but sputtered mightily last year. The club decided to restock its developmental ranks by dangling its attractive crop of major league ready talent in various deals. Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis all became Atlanta casualties this offseason, leaving the older Upton on a depleted roster with one final gasp at revitalizing his career.
But the tendency of spring training to cast hope on even the most bleak of situations had made Upton a figure to watch this offseason. With a new hitting coach and a new-look lineup, maybe, just maybe, Upton could start to resemble his former self. After all, could he really get any worse?
But unfortunately for the 30-year-old outfielder, the road back to success has become even more difficult. Upton will likely miss all of spring training with a foot injury, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Not only must Upton deal with the whispers and doubts that two forgetful years with the Braves have forged, he must now do so while missing out on crucial spring at-bats. He will lose valuable reps to recreate the swing that enjoyed so much success in Tampa Bay, leaving Upton in a lose-lose situation this spring.
Winner No. 3: Henry Owens
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Despite assembling an offense that figures to be one of the most potent units in baseball, the playoff aspirations of the Boston Red Sox will likely hinge on the productivity of its makeshift rotation.
The Red Sox were unable to convince Jon Lester to return, leaving behind a massive void at the top of the rotation. Therefore, Boston's Opening Day rotation will likely consist of Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly, a collection of unpredictable hurlers.
If one of those arms were to slip this spring, the Red Sox would obviously have to replace them on the staff. That may not be such a bad predicament for Boston to find itself in with a prospect as talented as Owens waiting in the wings.
Owens is the 19th-rated prospect in baseball according to MLB.com, and the No. 3 left-handed pitcher. He went 17-5 with a 2.89 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last season, while ending the year with the fourth-most strikeouts in the minor leagues.
The 22-year-old only tossed 38 innings at Triple-A last season, but he's already impressing Red Sox brass in camp, according to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald.
Owens will be given every opportunity to prove his big league readiness this spring. While Boston would likely start him in Triple-A in an ideal world, Owens' talent, combined with the uncertainty of its staff, should make the southpaw a prime candidate to win a job this spring.
Loser No. 2: Andre Ethier
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If the Los Angeles Dodgers decide to hang on to Ethier, the 32-year-old could find himself in a no-win situation this spring.
If all indications are true, Ethier is looking at a platoon-type situation this year with the Dodgers. Despite the departure of Matt Kemp this winter, L.A.'s outfield situation remains a crowded one. With Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Joc Pederson and Scott Van Slyke on the roster, Ethier's playing time will likely fluctuate again in 2015.
From 2008 to 2013, the left-hander was as consistent as they come. He hit .286 with 117 homers during that period, while posting a 127 wRC+ mark. Along with Kemp, Ethier provided the Dodgers with top-notch outfield production over that stretch.
But Ethier's playing time has begun to diminish with the emergence of Puig, leaving him as just another guy headed into the 2015 season. According to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, Ethier met with Dodgers management earlier in camp and expects to win a starting outfield spot.
While Ethier will play an important role for the Dodgers this season, it likely won't be as glamorous as he desires. Barring a trade this spring, Ethier's importance in L.A. won't ever be returning to what it was during his prime.
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Winner No. 2: Pace of Play Rules
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One of the hottest topics in Major League Baseball remains the proposed rule changes aimed to increase the game's popularity. While many of those major ideas are still in their preliminary stages, new commissioner Rob Manfred will begin to implement various minor adjustments this season.
MLB Public Relations tweeted out that list of changes, which include the following:
- Batters must keep at least one foot in the batter's box at all times
- A timer will be used to speed up the action in between innings
- That timer will be 2:25 for locally televised games and 2:45 for nationally televised games
- Pitchers may throw as many warm-up pitches as they wish, but can throw no more starting with 30 seconds remaining
- Batters will start to be ushered into the box with 20 seconds left on the timer
Despite David Ortiz's gripes regarding these rule changes, they should only improve the product on the field. By shaving off seconds here and there during the game's downtime, MLB can shorten its contests by substantial amounts.
MLB players may not be totally on board with Manfred's vision, but the fans will be. These changes will help keep the casual viewer engaged, only increasing baseball's popularity in a fast-moving sports landscape.
Loser No. 1: Kris Bryant
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Before an angry mob of Cubs fans tries to run me off the Internet, let me mention that I am by no means saying that Kris Bryant will struggle this spring.
But MLB.com's No. 2 prospect will likely start the season in the minor leagues, no matter what he does over the next month.
Bryant's destruction of minor league pitching has been well documented. The second-overall pick in the 2013 draft led all minor league hitters in homers, extra-base hits and slugging percentage last season. Bryant followed his unfathomable 220 wRC+ in 2013 with a 164 mark last year.
The writing is on the wall for Bryant's impending arrival in Chicago. The Cubs traded Luis Valbuena to the Houston Astros this offseason, ridding their roster of any potential Bryant roadblocks.
General manager Theo Epstein said all the right things about Bryant potentially making the team out camp in a recent interview with CSNChicago.com's Patrick Mooney, but the age-old service time argument will probably win out once again in this situation.
Bryant's talent has Cubs fans thrilled for the future, but those bright days seem to be at least a few months away. Knowing that such a technicality is going to delay his debut in the majors has to be a tough pill to swallow for the 23-year-old slugger.
Winner No. 1: Alex Rodriguez
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No, you did not read that wrong. Alex Rodriguez will be one of the winners of spring training.
We are all aware of A-Rod's baggage, so let's just bypass all of that for now. After sitting out the 2014 season with a yearlong suspension due to his performance-enhancing drug indiscretions, Rodriguez is back and ready to help the Yankees in 2015.
He's done all the right things leading up to camp, including a handwritten apology for pretty much lying through his teeth to baseball fans. While many won't forgive him for that blatant disrespect, Yankees fans just might if he can produce for their club this season.
He then arrived early at camp, in seemingly good shape. He's also worked out at first base to diversify his defensive profile, according to Mark Didtler of the Associated Press. Although there's still tons of work to be done, A-Rod has begun his march back to the game with a flurry of positive signs.
Everyone loves a good comeback story, and A-Rod, although probably undeserving, finds himself in a situation to salvage whatever is left of his reputation. It can't get any worse, and a productive season for the Bronx Bombers combined with this newfound positivity might just be the missing piece in a Yankees playoff run.
All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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