NFL Free Agency Is Worst Option for QB Solutions, and 2015 Is No Exception

It is late February.

The Northeast and Midwest are beginning to dig themselves out of snow-covered hellscapes. College basketball is becoming relevant for the first time in a calendar year. And NFL teams are snooping around free-agent quarterbacks and pretending they have a chance to solve something.

The rumors start around this time. Josh McCown has a market for some reason. McCown has a visit lined up that we'll cover desperately because only free agents who are released can talk with teams now. Then we'll learn some strange facts about his circumstances that are supposed to convince us that he's worth something. Like, say, this:

"Wow, Josh McCown half-coordinated the Bucs offense last season! That'll come in handy in Cleveland, where his offensive coordinator is an odds-on favorite to not survive the season!"

Quarterback desperation is a natural occurrence in the NFL ecosphere. There are, after all, only so many franchise quarterbacks to go around. The teams without them are often left to scramble for the best of the rest and overpay them because of the social norms that prevent NFL teams from trying to really test the rules of their game.

Over the past 10 or so years, only four quarterbacks with any shot at the Hall of Fame have even hit free agency. There were extreme extenuating circumstances around each of those situations. This is, I would say, mostly because of the franchise tag.

Even the angriest quarterbacks stuck in the worst situations know that to fight their way into free agency will take multiple seasons. By the time they get there, how much value will they have?

Player	FA Year	New Team	DYAR (Rk) Previous Year	Total DYAR for new team
Kurt Warner	2005	ARZ	-20 (26)	3,230
Drew Brees	2006	NO	883 (8)	13,659 (and counting)
Brett Favre	2009	MIN	95 (27)	1,356
Peyton Manning	2012	DEN	DNP	5,713 (and counting)

Peyton Manning hit free agency for two reasons. One: He missed the entire 2011 season with a neck injury that spooked doctors. Two: The Colts had the first overall pick and could use it to select Andrew Luck, one of the best quarterback prospects in NFL history.

Drew Brees had a similar path to free agency. His shoulder was so beat up that the Dolphins decided not to sign him. The Chargers, meanwhile, were able to plug in top-10 pick Philip Rivers to take his place.

Kurt Warner was old and had not started 16 games since 2001, and the Giants had committed to a No. 1 overall pick by the name of Eli Manning. Brett Favre was beyond old—39 at the time of his free agency—and had just led the NFL in interceptions when the Jets let him walk. The Packers, of course, got rid of him because they had pounced on Aaron Rodgers late in the first round.

Essentially, the only way a player like this becomes available is if a team has a replacement franchise quarterback lined up. Otherwise, you can forget about a difference-making quarterback becoming freely available.

Player	Former Team	Career DYAR
Jake Locker	TEN	-228
Mark Sanchez	PHI	-586
Josh McCown	TB	-1,167
Ryan Mallett	HOU	74
Brian Hoyer	CLE	168
Matt Moore	MIA	109
Christian Ponder	MIN	-418

Looking at this list of available players, what you see time and time again are players who have proved that they are NFL failures. In fact, the only guy who hasn't received a complete chance to fail might be Ryan Mallett, and we have preseasons of data that prove he's as accurate as a malfunctioning tennis ball cannon.

Even though it makes sense for quarterback-desperate teams to bring in every undrafted free agent they can get their hands on and try them out, looking to create the next Brian Hoyer rather than pay full retail for the real thing, they opt to go after the Josh McCowns of the world.

Paying full price for a non-difference-making NFL quarterback is like buying an economy airplane ticket at the counter. Not only are you going to hate yourself for it afterward, but you also likely passed on savings by eschewing sale prices.

If I had to go after one guy in this class, it would be Mallett. And I have no great belief in him as a starting quarterback, but at least I know that he hasn't conclusively proved he's a bust on the field.

The rest of this class is just chum for the sharks. If your team buys in at more than about $3 million over one year, it has just hit holding 20 against a dealer six at the metaphorical blackjack table that is free agency.

The best way to win is to not play. Make your blunders during the draft, where at least they won't eat up money that could otherwise help your team.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.