Predicting 2015 Success Rates of MLB's Many Aces on the Comeback Trail
Last season, ace-level MLB pitchers had to feel like teenagers in a bad '90s slasher flick—constantly looking over their shoulders, wondering if they'd be next.
In all seriousness, 2014 saw a gaggle of rotation-anchoring arms land on the disabled list with various maladies ranging from nagging to career-threatening.
Some of those arms entered spring training with a strong prognosis, while others are still battling back.
Every one of them, though, has the rapt attention of their coaches, training staffs and fans, who are waiting with bated breath to watch them pitch again—and dominate—pain-free.
Let's check on some of the more prominent names to see how far they've advanced on the long, lonely road to recovery…and speculate what 2015 has in store for them.
(Cue bad slasher movie music.)
(Just kidding.)
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
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The injury: Masahiro Tanaka looked like a lock to win American League Rookie of the Year honors and was in the Cy Young conversation when a partially torn ligament in his right elbow sent him to the disabled list in July 2014.
The Japanese import—who the Yankees inked to a seven-year, $155 million contract—wound up missing more than two months, though he did return to make a pair of September starts.
The prognosis: Tanaka said the right things after his first bullpen session of the spring.
"I feel [the elbow] is healed," he told reporters and the anxious Yankee faithful, per Chad Jennings of USA Today. "I'm confident I can get through the season…because I'm able to throw the ball absolutely fine."
A second bullpen on Sunday yielded similarly promising results, as manager Joe Girardi said there were "no issues," per ESPNNewYork.com's Andrew Marchand.
Tanaka is still just 26 but shouldered a heavy load in Japan, throwing more than 1,300 innings with the Rakuten Golden Eagles.
He appears on track to make an Opening Day start, but don't expect fears about his durability to abate until he proves he can pitch through a 162-game grind.
Prediction: The Yankees have discussed lessening Tanaka's workload and occasionally going with a six-man rotation, Marchand reports. Ultimately, though, the Bombers have too many other question marks in their starting five (and all over the diamond) to not ride their ace.
Still, given Tanaka's relative youth, we'll err on the side of optimism and predict a full, successful season—for him, if not New York.
Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
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The injury: When Garrett Richards crumpled to the ground Aug. 20 while covering first base against the Boston Red Sox, it rained on one of 2014's best coming-out parties.
Richards owned a 2.61 ERA with 164 strikeouts in 168.2 innings when the patellar tendon in his left knee betrayed him. That was an impressive output considering the plus-4.00 ERAs he posted in each of his first three big league seasons.
The Los Angeles Angels went on to win the AL West without their surprise ace, but they missed him dearly in a division-series loss to the upstart Kansas City Royals.
The prognosis: Richards was originally projected to skip the start of the 2015 campaign but is ahead of schedule and could be ready by Opening Day, per the Associated Press (via ESPNLosAngeles.com).
Angels manager Mike Scioscia sounded cautiously optimistic. "He's going to pitch when he's ready," Scioscia said, per the AP. "We'll see him early in the season."
Prediction: Nasty as Richards' injury was, there's no reason the 26-year-old shouldn't be back to full health this season.
The bigger question is whether he can duplicate his unexpected 2014 dominance—and guide the Halos on a deep postseason run.
Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
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The injury: For much of last year, the Texas Rangers' locker room was more MASH unit than big league clubhouse.
On Sept. 2, the day Texas was eliminated from playoff contention, nine players expected to be a part of the Rangers' Opening Day lineup and starting rotation had missed 20 or more games to injury, as Sports Illustrated's Cliff Corcoran noted.
Count pitcher Yu Darvish among the casualties. The All-Star right-hander landed on the DL with elbow inflammation in August and was ultimately shut down for the season.
The prognosis: Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux gave Darvish a positive review after a 35-pitch bullpen session on Saturday, telling Ron Matejko of ESPNDallas.com that the Texas ace had "zero" problems.
Darvish, Matejko notes, began throwing a month ago. In fact, Maddux added, "He's a little bit ahead of the field."
Prediction: Darvish eclipsed 200 innings as recently as 2013, but last season, he told Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com that the MLB slog was taking its toll:
"Darvish mentioned how several Japanese pitchers who sign contracts to play in the big leagues develop arm injuries for a variety of reasons, whether it’s throwing a bigger baseball in the U.S., the mound surfaces, types of pitches thrown -- particularly cutters and sliders -- and the workload.
"
In Japan, pitchers throw once a week. Here in America, pitchers throw every five days and sometimes on three days rest.
Like Tanaka, Darvish's age (28), along with the extended down time and positive reports from spring training, points toward a healthy 2015.
But also like Tanaka, Darvish will be under a microscope. Rangers fans will be holding their breath at every wince as Texas tries to avoid a second straight snakebitten season.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
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The injury: After winning National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2013, Fernandez was poised to assume full-blown ace status last year. Eight starts into his 2014 campaign, the young Miami Marlins right-hander had punched out 70 batters in 51.2 innings to go along with a 2.44 ERA and 0.948 WHIP.
Then his right elbow gave out, and he heard the three words no hurler wants uttered in his presence: Tommy John surgery.
That ended his season, naturally, and splashed some serious cold water on the Marlins' postseason dreams.
The prognosis: Fernandez is tossing off flat ground, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, and expects to begin throwing off a mound in early March.
Still, he likely won't take the hill in a big-league game until after the All-Star break. "I think you’ve got to be smart," Fernandez told Spencer. "You’ve got to take care of your arm. I don’t want to rush."
Prediction: Fernandez and the Marlins are wise to take it slow. He's just 22, after all, so he's not yet in his prime.
There's no reason for Miami to risk his future and hurry him back, just as there's no reason to doubt Fernandez will join the growing ranks of pitchers who have rebounded strong from Tommy John surgery.
In the short term, though, a half-season without their budding ace (plus whatever cobwebs Fernandez has after the long layoff) could once again dampen the Fish's playoff aspirations.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets
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The injury: With the Washington Nationals prohibitive favorites in the NL East, it could come down to a scramble between the Marlins and New York Mets for second place and a possible wild-card slot.
Coincidentally, both clubs are pinning their hopes on the return of young, injured aces.
In the Mets' case, it's Harvey, who is also recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The hard-throwing 24-year-old missed all of last season after finishing fourth in Cy Young balloting in 2013.
He's now 16 months removed from the procedure and was cleared to snap off some breaking balls in a recent bullpen session that manager Terry Collins dubbed "stinking dynamite," per the New York Post's Mike Puma (that's a good thing, if you were wondering).
The prognosis: Harvey, the New York Daily News' Kristie Ackert reports, is set to face live hitters soon. If he doesn't hit any bumps with that, game action will follow.
It's not clear whether Harvey will be the Mets' Opening Day man, but Collins said his ace will be among the first five starters to take the ball, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin.
"He will not be skipped early," Collins said. "This kid has worked way too hard to get back on that mound to skip him early."
Prediction: Rubin cited data collected by sports medicine specialist Dr. Glenn Fleisig that shows 80 percent of pitchers successfully return to the big leagues after Tommy John surgery but typically take six months to hit their stride (if they last that long).
Assuming that happens in Harvey's case, he wouldn't be the pitcher Mets fans remember until September. Here's betting he finds his groove a bit sooner, anchoring a strong New York rotation and propelling the Amazin's into the playoff picture.
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
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The injury: So much has gone wrong with the Philadelphia Phillies that's it's easy to overlook Cliff Lee.
After throwing 200-plus innings in three straight seasons, Lee made just 13 starts last year due to a strained left elbow.
He was first shelved in May, then made three ineffective late-July starts (an apparent trade-deadline showcase that didn't pan out) before shutting it down for the season.
The prognosis: The Phillies are treating Lee with kid gloves, limiting his early-spring workload, per CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury.
"We’re just being safe, easing into it," Lee said, per Salisbury. "I’m fine."
At the very least, we know his sense of humor is intact. The former Cy Young winner recently answered questions about his recovery and the Phillies' lurching rebuild with the help of a Magic 8-Ball.
Prediction: The best-case scenario for Philadelphia would be that Lee returns to form, pitches lights-out in the first half and yields a bushel of prospects from a contender at the trade deadline.
It could happen. Lee, though, will be 37 in August, an age when injuries tend to nag and recur. Plus, these are the fading Phils we're talking about—when was the last time anything went according to plan?
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
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The injury: Adam Wainwright is the only player on this list who didn't see the DL in 2014. The St. Louis Cardinals ace did, however, have offseason surgery on his right elbow, so there's plenty of room for concern.
Yes, Wainwright had a typically dominant season, going 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA for the NL Central champs. But he wasn't himself in the postseason, as he failed to make it through the fifth inning in two of his three starts and coughed up 11 runs and 21 hits in 16 October frames.
By that point, Wainwright confessed to reporters that his elbow was in such bad shape he couldn't screw the lid off a jar and had to ask his wife to open a can of soda.
"My masculinity took a hit at the end of the year," Wainwright said, per Stan McNeal of Fox Sports Midwest.
The prognosis: The Cards are being cautious with their 33-year-old workhorse, and plan to "limit [his] workload during the spring and perhaps into the season," per the Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated).
Wainwright doesn't sound thrilled with that plan. "'I'm getting paid to play every five days as it is, not every day,'' Wainwright said per the AP. ''If I'm skipping my one every five days, good Lord, what am I getting paid for?''
Prediction: Wainwright had Tommy John surgery in 2011 and came back strong, so there's no denying his toughness or resolve. And the arthroscopic procedure he had this offseason to remove torn cartilage was far less serious.
Still, it's impossible not to wonder about a pitcher entering his mid-30s and coming off another surgery on his throwing elbow.
Until further notice, it's foolish to bet against Wainwright, who is easily the best pitcher in the NL not named Clayton Kershaw. So we won't.
But we reserve the right to be concerned.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
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The injury: Amid the din and confetti of the San Francisco Giants' third World Series win in five years, Matt Cain was a forgotten man.
A key cog in the Giants' 2010 and 2012 title runs, Cain made just 15 starts in 2014 and ultimately went under the knife twice in September to have bone chips removed from his right elbow and a bone spur from his right ankle.
"It was tough to just watch," Cain said of San Francisco's most recent championship, per MLB.com's J "There's definitely more fulfillment when you're able to go through it with them."
The prognosis: The Giants are giving Cain two-day breathers between throwing sessions as opposed to the typical one, reports Chris Haft of MLB.com.
But the right-hander has "looked good," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said, per Haft. And he should be part of the rotation when the regular season begins.
Prediction: Even before injuries derailed him, Cain's performance was trending down.
After tossing more than 200 innings in seven straight seasons and posting sub-3.00 ERAs in 2011 and 2012, Cain's ERA ballooned to 4.00 in 2013. He was 2-7 with a 4.18 ERA before he was shut down last year.
It's possible the surgeries will reverse the trend and turn the 30-year-old back into the pitcher who made three All-Star teams and twirled a perfect game.
If so, he'd join Madison Bumgarner to form one of the deadliest lefty-righty rotation combos in baseball.
We'll take the optimism down a notch and predict a solid but not quite spectacular season for Cain—which is a lot better than being a forgotten man.
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