Poor Combine Shouldn't Torpedo Paul Dawson's Draft Stock

Running a 4.93 at 6'0" and 235 pounds will almost certainly hurt the draft stock of TCU linebacker Paul Dawson. 

His measurables at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis—which were exceedingly poor by any standard—have reinforced off-the-field concerns and introduced athletic question marks about a potential top-50 pick in the 2015 NFL draft. 

But if tape truly is the determining evaluation tool—with the combine nothing more than a supplement to the final product—Dawson should not see his draft stock plummet over the next few months. The on-the-field evidence remains Dawson's most convincing recruiting instrument. 

The combine will still be a hurdle. 

Not only did Dawson need nearly five seconds to complete the 40-yard dash, but he also posted far lower-than-expected numbers in the vertical (28.0") and broad (109.0") jumps. His bench press (21 reps) and 20-yard shuttle (4.49 seconds) were not among the top 10 at the linebacker position. 

Dawson gave a rebuttal to his poor combine, stating on Twitter he is "an awesome football player" but "not a track star."  

And there's legitimacy to his claim. Football isn't played in a 40-yard straight line, and stopping touchdowns will almost never come down to whether or not a linebacker can jump 28 inches or 48 inches straight up into the air. His poor athletic showing might have actually revealed greater dedication issues for Dawson, who has been criticized over off-the-field issues during the draft process. 

According to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Dawson is considered a "character risk" by a number of NFL teams. 

"He's late for meetings, all that kind of stuff," one scout told McGinn. "He's just never done the right things."

There is much less doubt about how Dawson goes about his business between the white lines. 

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Mike Mayock of NFL Network called Dawson a "true three-down linebacker," per Mike Huguenin of NFL.com. 

"His instincts and quickness—he was just phenomenal on tape," Mayock said.

Herein lies the problem for NFL teams. How do you project a player who tests poorly, but who also plays the game fast and without athletic issue?

The answer: Trust the tape. 

The combine can be useful for highlighting an otherwise hidden issue, forcing the evaluation to press rewind. I rewatched much of Dawson's 2014 tape, looking for instances of speed or athleticism affecting his ability to get to a spot or make a play. The search was mostly fruitless. 

In fact, the opposite was routinely true. Dawson may run 4.9 in the 40, but he plays the game at 4.5. Examples pour out of his collegiate career. 

Against Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, Dawson made three impact plays dependent on instincts and playing speed. 

On the first, he shot through a gap, sidestepped a pulling guard and dropped the running back in the backfield. Dawson sacked quarterback Bo Wallace a quarter later, attacking downhill from nearly 15 yards away to register the takedown in space.

He finished his day with another instinctive pressure, reading the pass play in an instant, beating the blocker to the spot and forcing Wallace into an interception for a touchdown. 

"Very instinctive football player," one scout told McGinn. "Little bit of a freelancer. Kind of does his own thing, which coaches don't love. But he's got a lot of ability."

Dawson didn't look good coming out of the blocks and running in a straight line in Indianapolis. But put a running back in front of him, and he plays like he's shot out of cannon. 

Combine speed can be misleading because it does not factor in the read-and-react processes that occur on every single snap of every football game. Dawson plays fast because he can see what is in front of him and process the information in a fraction of a second, allowing him to move downhill in an instant. Many times, Dawson sliced into the backfield to make plays because linemen and blockers were beat to the spot. 

And when lead blockers did meet him in the hole, Dawson often had the agility to sidestep or avoid the block altogether. 

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com put it perfectly in his draft profile, calling Dawson a "second-level ghost who is a nightmare for offensive linemen to engage." He also described Dawson as a "flexible, agile athlete," with an ability to "get skinny and slip blocks." 

Dawson's tape against Minnesota is probably his best. He was asked to mirror running back David Cobb in the running game and cover tight end Maxx Williams in the passing game, and he did both without issue. Both players will be draft picks in the 2015 draft. Dawson produced 15 tackles, with at least a half-dozen coming either behind or right at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota couldn't stay in front of him. 

The moral of this story: Don't overreact to the combine. 

A player like Miami's Denzel Perryman is a good example of how the testing in Indianapolis can confirm something about a player. He ran the 40 in almost 4.8 seconds, corroborating the heavy-footed style of play he showed on tape. There's nothing extra to review because the measurables line up with his work on the field. 

Dawson is different. He plays the game like his pants are on fire. Arguably no linebacker in the class is better playing downhill, with the honed instincts needed to get into the backfield in a split second. But put him in a three-point stance and ask him to sprint 40 yards in a straight line, and the game changes.

His measurables will force evaluators to go back and watch his tape, but those same evaluators won't find many examples of how those numbers translate to the field. Dawson can run, he plays fast and he plays powerful. 

The combine is one step in the evaluation process. While an important one, it is far from the most important. A collegiate career of tape ultimately means much more than five seconds and a few jumps at Lucas Oil Stadium. 

Dawson finished his tweet after the combine with the hashtag, #meetmeonthefield. A catchy rallying cry for Dawson, it was also a strong reminder that his play between the lines should help balance out an otherwise concerning showing in Indianapolis. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2