Predicting MLB Signings, Trades That Could Still Happen Before Opening Day
While teams have a pretty good idea of what their Opening Day rosters will look like, the arrival of spring training—and the unofficial end of baseball's offseason—doesn't signal an end to player movement.
There are a handful (OK, maybe half-a-handful) of useful free agents still available, while veterans currently penciled into roster spots could be outplayed by younger, cheaper talent this spring and find themselves scrambling to find a new home for the regular season.
In some cases, the pieces that a team believes can get the job done prove otherwise during the spring, forcing a general manager's hand into making a trade—perhaps revisiting trade talks that stalled out for one reason or another during the winter.
To be sure, the majority of the moves that will be made between now and Opening Day won't involve high-profile players. But there will be a few that do—five, to be precise. Let's take a look at what those are.
Francisco Rodriguez Signs with the Miami Marlins
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If Francisco Rodriguez has learned anything this winter, it's that the value of a 40-save season isn't what it used to be—especially when it belongs to a reliever in his early- to mid-30s who has become prone to the long ball.
While the chance to return to the Milwaukee Brewers and close is an enticing one, continuing to spend significant time in Miller Park is not. One look at his splits from the 2014 season is enough to understand why. So K-Rod decides to try something new and signs a two-year, $10 million deal with the Miami Marlins to help bridge the gap to closer Steve Cishek.
The two-year pact, one that MLB.com's Joe Frisaro originally reported was an option from the Marlins, offers Rodriguez security through his age-35 season, something that the Brewers weren't comfortable doing.
His penchant for allowing home runs will be far less of an issue in spacious Marlins Park, one of the least home run-friendly venues in the sport, according to ESPN's Park Factors.
It doesn't hurt that the Marlins are playing in a depleted National League East, while the National League Central, where the Brewers reside, is as tough a division as it's ever been with the return of the Chicago Cubs to relevance.
Landing a two-year deal with a team on the rise (and, potentially, with an easier path to the playoffs) is never a bad thing.
*Of course, there are bonuses in the deal that pump up its value if Rodriguez were to replace Cishek as closer. Scott Boras is no fool, after all.
Cole Hamels Gets Traded to Boston
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Boston Gets: LHP Cole Hamels
Philadelphia Gets: 2B/OF Mookie Betts, 3B/OF Garin Cecchini and a player to be named later
Why It Makes Sense for Boston
CBS Sports' Mike Axisa (among others) recently made the point that with Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada now part of Boston's ridiculously deep minor league system, the Red Sox could afford to part with an elite young talent like Mookie Betts to land the front-line pitcher that the team desperately needs.
Boston has the pieces—and deep pockets—needed to take on a premium arm like Cole Hamels, who would immediately push the Red Sox out of the realm of contenders right into the role of favorite to win the American League.
As Axisa notes, the Red Sox are built to win now. The core of this team—including newcomers Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval—isn't getting any younger. And it's not like this trade would decimate the team's farm system, which would remain incredibly deep and talented.
Could the Red Sox wait and try to make a run at Hamels or another front-line starter closer to the trade deadline? Sure they could. But there's no guarantee that the asking price on Hamels will go down, just like there's no guarantee that someone like the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto would actually become available.
When you've got the chance to add an experienced, elite starter to the front of your rotation, you don't let it pass you by.
Why It Makes Sense for Philadelphia
The Phillies have been adamant about getting either Mookie Betts or catcher Blake Swihart from Boston in a deal for Hamels, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, and they finally get their wish.
Betts immediately upgrades Philadelphia's outfield, though the ultimate vision for him may be as Chase Utley's eventual replacement at second base. Either way, he becomes a cornerstone piece of Philadelphia's rebuilding efforts.
Questions about Garin Cecchini's ability to defend the hot corner might ultimately push him to left field, but he's got a solid approach at the plate that should translate to a player who hits for average and gets on base consistently with some power.
Like Boston, Philadelphia could wait until we get closer to the trade deadline to try and flip Hamels. But that opens the door to potential injury, which would kill all of his value.
Besides, Hamels made it clear to USA Today's Bob Nightengale that he wants out of Philadelphia, and his continued presence on the team would only cause a distraction that nobody, especially Hamels, wants to deal with throughout the season.
Andre Ethier Gets Traded To...
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Quite frankly, I'm not sure how to finish the above statement.
While I still believe there's a deal to be made between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles revolving around Andre Ethier—something we looked at last week—I'm not going to regurgitate the same idea here.
But we know that Ethier wants to play every day, something that is unlikely to happen with the Dodgers outside of an injury to Carl Crawford or Yasiel Puig, and that he has no interest in serving as the team's fourth outfielder once again.
It's a point he reiterated to ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon. "I want the opportunity to play every day. My mind hasn't changed from when I told you guys that a couple months ago. It's tough when you get 300 at-bats and you're expected to hit 15 or 20 home runs."
Manager Don Mattingly, who initially didn't want to discuss the situation with Saxon, saying, "I'm not even trying to go there, really," was more forthcoming in a recent conversation with MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.
"I never expect Andre to be a problem," Mattingly said. "He's always professional. Understandably, guys aren't happy when they aren't playing as much as they want. He was a pro about it and wasn't a problem."
The key word in Mattingly's statement—"was." For the Dodgers (and Mattingly) are delusional if they expect Ethier to sit silently and accept a part-time role once again in 2015. Ethier's statements, both early in the offseason and recently, should make that crystal clear.
While Ethier may not go out of his way to cause a distraction during the regular season, there's no reason to believe that he's going to suddenly stop vocalizing his desire for regular playing time when asked by reporters.
If there's one thing the Dodgers don't need, it's a malcontent (and a distraction) in the clubhouse.
Outside of Baltimore, a team that did discuss a potential Ethier deal with the Dodgers earlier this winter, according to MASN Sports' Roch Kubatko, there's not an obvious fit for the 32-year-old veteran.
The pressure is on the Dodgers' dynamic front office duo of Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi to work their magic and avoid what is shaping up to be a caustic, untenable situation should Ethier still be a Dodger come Opening Day.
Expect them to come through and clean up this mess—even if it means paying down some of Ethier's deal while taking back another team's bad contract in the process.
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Rafael Soriano Signs with the Milwaukee Brewers
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With Francisco Rodriguez now in Miami and unable to pry Jonathan Papelbon out of Philadelphia, Milwaukee turns to the best available ninth-inning option, signing Rafael Soriano to a one-year, $6.5 million deal.
For Soriano, the Brewers represent the only team willing to give him a shot in the ninth inning after he lost his job as the Washington Nationals' closer late last year, when some scouts told ESPN's Buster Olney that his stuff "evaporated."
In many ways, Soriano is actually a better fit in Milwaukee than Rodriguez. Like K-Rod, he can still make batters swing-and-miss, but he does so with superior command and far less of a penchant for allowing home runs.
Dioner Navarro Gets Traded to Arizona
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Arizona Gets: C Dioner Navarro
Toronto Gets: 2B/SS Isan Diaz and RHP Jimmie Sherfy
Why It Makes Sense for Arizona
The Diamondbacks simply don't have a starting-caliber catcher in camp or on the roster, and that's a major problem that needs to be addressed despite general manager Dave Stewart's proclamation to AZCentral Sports' Nick Piecoro in January that he wouldn't add another catcher to the mix.
Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa, the team's chief baseball officer, called it a "really unique" situation while a recent guest on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM's Burns and Gambo show (h/t ArizonaSports.com). A team needs more certainty than that at such a crucial position.
Navarro would be a huge upgrade over the team's current options, allowing Tuffy Gosewisch, a career backup, to continue in that role while taking any pressure off prospect Peter O'Brien, who isn't yet major league-ready and would be able to continue his development at Triple-A.
As for Oscar Hernandez, a talented defender selected from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Rule 5 draft who has never played above Single-A? He wouldn't be the first intriguing Rule 5 selection who was returned to his original team.
Why It Makes Sense for Toronto
If Dioner Navarro isn't catching every day, then he doesn't want to be in Toronto, as he explained to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm recently:
"I asked for a trade right away and up to today that's still my goal. I would like to go a place where I can play everyday. I signed a two-year deal here to catch everyday and unfortunately they felt like they needed to make a move. I was kind of frustrated throughout the whole offseason, a little disappointed that nothing has happened yet.
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Bumped from the starting role by Russell Martin, the Toronto Blue Jays can't offer him enough playing time behind the plate. The potential negatives of having a malcontent in the clubhouse all season long far outweigh the positives that Navarro would offer as the team's full-time designated hitter.
The team is open to trading Navarro, as GM Alex Anthopoulos said when he met with members of the media, including Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, at the team's spring training complex in Dunedin, Florida. However, it would only do so if it resulted in Navarro starting elsewhere and helped Toronto either immediately or in the future.
In Isan Diaz and Jimmie Sherfy, the Blue Jays get (potentially) a little bit of both. Still a few years away from contributing, Diaz projects to be an above-average defender at second base and a solid contributor at the plate, offering average power at the position.
Sherfy, a hard-throwing right-handed closer who reached Double-A in his first full professional season, has two plus offerings in his mid- to upper-90s fastball and slider. His command needs refinement, but he could be the team's closer of the not-too-distant future and make an impact at some point in 2015.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
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