1 Huge Fear Every MLB Contender Should Have This Spring
Baseball season is upon us!
Pitchers and catchers have already reported to camp, with position players following suit throughout this week. We will soon have actual games to watch, followed by Opening Day just over a month away.
But while this time is often filled with hope and optimism, every MLB contender will begin the season with a key weakness that could derail its season.
Those concerns span from injuries, like in Baltimore and Detroit, rotation issues, such as Boston and San Francisco, and lineup problems, like San Diego and the New York Mets.
MLB is currently engaged in a period of immense parity, which is why a majority of the league is covered over the next few slides. The teams mentioned figure to be involved in the playoff picture over the course of the 2015 season.
Without further ado, let's jump in!
Baltimore Orioles: Can Manny Machado and Matt Wieters Return to Form?
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Baltimore took home an AL East division title last season due in large part to its offense. The O's led the league in homers, while finishing eighth in runs, second in isolated power, sixth in wRC+ and third in WAR.
That offense was buoyed by the production of Nelson Cruz, who socked 40 homers to go along with 108 RBI. Cruz will play elsewhere in 2015, as will Nick Markakis and his .276 average and 14 home runs.
Many expected Baltimore to replace that departed production this winter, but it seems like the club is counting on the returns of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters to soften some of that blow.
Machado missed most of the 2014 season with a knee injury, while Wieters only played in 26 games due to Tommy John surgery. Each has seen success at the major league level, with Machado sporting a lifetime .278 average and Wieters hitting over 20 dingers in three different big league seasons.
The rest of the division improved over the offseason, so the O's figure to be tested to the very end this season. If Machado and Wieters fail to stay healthy and productive, the defending division champs could slip down the standings in 2015.
New York Yankees: Can the Rotation Stay Healthy and Consistent?
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The New York Yankees had only two starting pitchers make over 20 starts in 2014. Of those two, Hiroki Kuroda has left for Japan and Masahiro Tanaka missed the tail end of the season due to injury.
The Yankees rotation will look markedly different in 2015, with Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, Shane Greene and David Phelps all leaving the Bronx this winter. The Yankees are hoping the returns of C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova will act as offseason additions this season.
Sabathia posted a 4.78 ERA in 2013 and only made eight starts a season ago. His velocity has dipped down to the upper 80s, which is a cause for concern at 34. Nova was tremendous in 2013 with a 3.10 ERA but started just four games last year due to a season-ending elbow injury.
Michael Pineda was impressive in 13 starts last year, and Nathan Eovaldi might be the steal of the offseason. But the Yankees will still be relying on three pitchers returning from significant injuries in 2014. If Tanaka, Sabathia and/or Nova can't provide New York with healthy and productive seasons, then the Yankees rotation could become the club's weak link.
Toronto Blue Jays: How Will the Young Pitching Perform?
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The Toronto Blue Jays have become a sexy pick to win the AL East this season for a variety of different reasons. Behind one of the best lineups in baseball and a handful of talented arms, the Jays stack up well with just about everybody in the game.
A few of those hurlers are young and emerging players, including Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris. While names like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle remain on the roster, Toronto's success will depend on how its youngsters adapt to the big leagues.
Stroman has already enjoyed success in the majors, posting a 3.65 ERA in 20 starts with the Blue Jays last season. The 23-year-old walked under two per nine innings, and a 2.84 FIP suggests he's here to stay. Hutchison too received big league work last season, logging over 184 innings and fanning nearly nine per nine innings.
Top prospects Sanchez and Norris will have a chance to make the rotation out of camp, but one of the pair will likely be used in a prominent bullpen role. The right-handed Sanchez posted a 1.09 ERA in 24 bullpen appearances for Toronto last season, so he seems the logical choice. Norris struck out everything in sight as a starter in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see how that situation plays out.
Regardless, the Jays are giving their young hurlers extensive responsibility in the season ahead. Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris will need to avoid customary growing pains in order for Toronto to fully achieve its potential.
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Boston Red Sox: Will a Makeshift Rotation Keep Its Vaunted Offense in the Game?
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While the Boston Red Sox will enter the season with a World Series-ready lineup, the same cannot be said for the club's rotation.
The Red Sox failed to bring Jon Lester back to the fold in free agency, leaving a massive hole in their starting staff. Boston's rotation will consist of Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly this season.
Buchholz will take over as the face of the staff, and the right-hander will need to rebound from a subpar 2014. Buchholz posted a 5.34 ERA in 28 starts last season. Porcello was acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes deal after a career year last season, as the lefty recorded a 3.43 ERA in over 200 innings. But Porcello's career 4.30 ERA remains troubling in a hitter's park like Fenway Park.
Miley boasts a sub-4.00 career ERA, but the southpaw would like to forget 2014. Miley's ERA jumped to a 4.34 mark, despite an intense spike in strikeouts per nine innings. Similarly, Masterson is hoping a change of scenery brings out the best of his abilities. The right-hander finished with an ERA flirting with 6.00 last year in a season marred with injuries.
On the bright side, the Red Sox have assembled a rotation filled with ground-ball specialists. No projected starter has a ground-ball rate lower than 48 percent, which could play well at Fenway.
If Boston's makeshift rotation can stay healthy and somewhat productive, the lineup should be able to score enough to lead the club into the postseason. But Red Sox fans should be concerned about their team's starting pitching entering spring training.
Detroit Tigers: When Will Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez Return?
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On paper, the Detroit Tigers still look like the favorites in the AL Central, despite losing Max Scherzer to free agency. But the Tigers offense is built around two aging superstars, both of whom have endured injury concerns this offseason.
Victor Martinez tore the meniscus in his left knee this winter, which required the 36-year-old to go under the knife. Martinez signed a four-year, $68 million extension earlier in the offseason, so it's safe to say his latest tenure in Detroit isn't off to an ideal start.
Martinez is on the heels of one of the best seasons in baseball in 2014. He hit .335 with 32 homers and 103 RBI, while recording 166 wRC+. Martinez ranked in the top 10 in each of those categories.
Many reports, like this one from Tony Paul and Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, believe Martinez could be back shortly after Opening Day. The Tigers will be hoping so, because their lineup isn't the same without V-Mart.
Miguel Cabrera's ankle has also caused him problems this winter. Although Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently reported Cabrera has been cleared to begin non-impact baseball activities, his injury issues are even more magnified with Martinez missing time.
A full recovery from both sluggers is vital for Detroit and will be the majority of the focus for the Tigers this spring.
Kansas City Royals: How Will James Shields' Departure Affect the Rotation?
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The Kansas City rotation ranked in the top 10 in both ERA and WAR last season, behind solid seasons from Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy and a breakout year from the young Yordano Ventura.
That rotation was also bolstered by the departed James Shields, who will be playing for the San Diego Padres in 2015. Shields led the Royals in WAR and innings pitched, while finishing the season with a 3.21 ERA.
While Kansas City was likely never going to re-sign Shields at his asking price, that doesn't change the fact that the club will greatly miss the right-hander's consistent production. Since 2007, no major league starter has logged more innings than Shields.
Despite Shields' departure, the Royals still have an emerging ace in Ventura. The flame-throwing right-hander went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA last year But at just 23, Ventura's responsibility will increase dramatically without Shields.
Vargas and Duffy provided the Royals with plus-2.00 WAR seasons as well in 2014. But Vargas has a career ERA higher than 4.00, and Duffy has started just over 50 games at 26.
Kansas City did sign Edinson Volquez to replace Shields in some capacity this offseason, and the right-hander should at least become the innings-eater that Shields was for the Royals. But a rotation without Shields could present some problems for the defending American League champions.
Cleveland Indians: Will They Regret Not Adding a Veteran Starter This Winter?
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Cleveland finished just five games behind the AL Central winning Tigers last season, behind an underrated starting rotation that ranked third in baseball in WAR.
But despite that ranking, only Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco posted a WAR over 2.0. The rotation finished 2014 with a 3.82 ERA, ranking 18th in MLB.
Kluber obviously won the AL Cy Young Award last season with an unbelievable season. The right-hander posted a 2.44 ERA (2.35 FIP) in 235 innings. He fanned over 10 hitters per nine innings and led all MLB pitchers in WAR.
Carrasco only made 14 starts for the Tribe last year, but he was impressive in those outings. He fanned over nine per nine innings, while walking less than two hitters per nine. He finished with a 2.55 ERA and 2.44 FIP.
The rest of the rotation will consist of Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and free-agent addition Gavin Floyd. Both Bauer and Salazar finished 2014 with an ERA over 4.00, and Floyd is coming off an elbow injury that cost him most of last season.
With the abundance of solid arms on the market this winter, the Indians decided to enter 2015 with what they already had. The addition of Floyd withstanding, Cleveland is hoping that the same cast of characters will improve enough to push Cleveland into the postseason.
Chicago White Sox: Will the 4 and 5 Starters Doom the Rest of the Rotation?
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The Chicago White Sox used this offseason to become a legitimate contender in the AL Central. Chicago acquired Jeff Samardzija from the Oakland A's, pairing him with established ace Chris Sale. Samardzija, Sale and Jose Quintana give the White Sox one of the best trios in baseball.
But for the club to truly challenge for the AL Central title in a crowded division, the White Sox must find two competent hurlers to round out the rest of the rotation. John Danks and Hector Noesi will likely fill those two spots.
It probably feels like Danks has been around forever, but he's only 29. The left-hander has battled injuries since a three-year stretch of 30-plus starts from 2008-2010. But Danks was able to put together a 32-start season last year, which is a positive sign for a hurler trying to regain his best form.
Unfortunately for Danks, he just wasn't effective. He finished the year with a 4.74 ERA and walked over three hitters per nine innings. The lefty also allowed more than one homer per nine. Noesi wasn't much better, as he recorded a 4.75 ERA in 27 starts.
If Danks or Noesi can put together a solid campaign in 2015, the White Sox rotation could leap into the conversation of league's best. But if neither hurler pans out, it could be the determining factor in the club missing the playoffs.
L.A. Angeles: Can the Middle of the Order Stay Healthy Behind Mike Trout?
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Mike Trout is the best player in baseball.
He's two homers shy of 100 and boasts a career 166 wRC+ and .244 isolated power mark. And at 23, Trout's best years are still ahead of him. Scary stuff.
The Los Angeles Angels have the luxury of penciling Trout's name on to a lineup card, but for the club to advance further into the postseason, it will need production and protection from the hitters following him in the lineup.
One of those players will be Albert Pujols, who showed some resemblance of his former self last season with a 28-homer season and 124 wRC+. Josh Hamilton was likely to hit fifth, but he's pegged to miss the beginning of the season with a shoulder issue.
C.J. Cron flashed some pop in 79 games last year, and new addition Matt Joyce boasts a career wRC+ of 118. With Hamilton set to miss time and Pujols continuing to age, both Cron and Joyce could need to take on bigger roles behind the great Trout.
Oakland Athletics: Who Will Take the Ball After Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir?
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The Oakland A's ranked fourth in baseball in ERA last season, behind an elite rotation headlined by Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir.
That rotation will look markedly different in 2015, with Lester and Samardzija playing elsewhere in 2015. Gray and Kazmir will return, but Oakland will need to find three other capable starters to fill out the rotation.
Jesse Chavez will likely be the team's third starter, as the right-hander worked his way into the rotation in 2014. Chavez posted a 3.44 ERA in 21 starts for the A's last season. But 31-year-old had only made two big league starts before 2014, so it's yet to be determined if he can continue to be a dependable starter.
Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn seem to be the most suitable candidates for the final two spots on the staff. Pomeranz looked great in 10 starts for Oakland last year, but he has walked over four hitters per nine in his career to go with a 4.24 ERA. Hahn was acquired from the San Diego Padres, after he posted a 3.04 ERA last season in 12 big league starts.
A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker should return from injuries at some point this season, which would give the A's some much-needed depth. But at least for the start of the season, Oakland's back end of the rotation remains a mystery and a concern.
Seattle Mariners: Will a Dependable Shortstop Emerge?
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The Seattle Mariners have put together one of the most complete rosters in the American League. The Mariners boast both a top-tier lineup and rotation and could finally claim an AL West crown this season.
But as the beginning of the season rapidly approaches, Seattle has yet to name a starting shortstop with both Brad Miller and Chris Taylor set to fight for the position during spring training. Both youngsters still have plenty to prove at the big level.
Miller started 123 games at short for Seattle last season, hitting only .221 with an on-base percentage of under .300. The 25-year-old did fare much better in limited playing time in 2013, but an increase in strikeout percentage has opened the door for competition this spring.
Taylor managed to show some offensive upside in 47 big league at-bats last season, slashing .287/.347/.346. The 24-year-old has recorded high on-base percentages at every stop in his career, something that could help him win the job over the next month.
With not much to separate the two defensively, the one that performs at the dish this spring will win the job. For the M's, one of the pair needs to shine and provide the club with stability at the game's most important position.
Washington Nationals: Will Drew Storen Be Consistent in the Ninth Inning?
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The Washington Nationals don't have many weaknesses. The Nats look like the best team in baseball on paper, with a nasty rotation and productive lineup primed for a World Series run.
But the bullpen will have a different look with Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard playing elsewhere this season. It will be Drew Storen who will take over the full-time duties as the Washington closer.
The right-hander saved 43 games for the Nats in 2011 but had been replaced by Soriano due to injuries and inconsistencies. That was until last year, when Storen took the job back from Soriano and saved 11 games down the stretch.
Storen's velocity isn't the elite, upper-90s speed that most closers posses. He's only fanned over eight hitters per nine innings for his career, including just seven per nine last year. His 1.12 ERA last season wasn't supported by a 2.71 FIP. In fact, Storen's 2.94 career ERA and 3.15 FIP indicate he may not be that dominant closer that every team desires.
Even with the addition of Casey Janssen, the Nationals will miss both Clippard and Soriano. Storen's ability to solidify the ninth inning will be vital for a bullpen in transition.
Miami Marlins: Can the Rotation Hold Down the Fort Until Jose Fernandez Returns?
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The Miami Marlins surprised everyone last year by hanging around until the end of the season. With a busy offseason, the Fish have positioned themselves to challenge for a postseason spot in the 2015 season.
Jose Fernandez captured the imagination of baseball fans in 2013 with a standout rookie campaign. The right-hander went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, while finishing with a 4.2 WAR. Fernandez was headed for an even more impressive campaign in 2014, before his season was ended prematurely with an elbow injury. The 22-year-old was fanning over 12 hitters per nine innings before he was sidelined.
With Fernandez expected to miss the beginning of the season, the rest of the Marlins staff will need to keep the Fish afloat until their ace returns.
A bulk of that responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Mat Latos, who was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds this winter. Latos was banged up in 2014, but his career 3.14 ERA and 8.12 K/9 bodes well for Miami.
Henderson Alvarez will also be asked to take on a more prominent role, after a season where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Despite a solid showing, his 3.58 FIP indicates Alvarez may have overachieved in 2014. Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler and, if he decides to, Dan Haren must pick up the slack as well.
With Fernandez, the Marlins rotation may be one of the best in the NL. But until his return, Miami's staff must get off to a fast start.
New York Mets: Will the Offense Score Enough to Aid an Emerging Staff?
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The New York Mets finished just four games under .500 last season, despite losing ace Matt Harvey to Tommy John during the season.
It's no secret the Mets have been hoarding young pitching talent, and that plethora of hurlers is close to being in the big leagues all together. Harvey has debuted, as has Zack Wheeler and NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. With Noah Syndergaard on the way, the Mets seem poised to be relevant for many years to come.
As for 2015, the Mets offense will need to improve for the club to qualify for the postseason. The Mets ranked 21st in runs, 20th in home runs, 28th in average, 22nd in OBP and 21st in wRC+ last year.
The only significant upgrade at the dish will come from Michael Cuddyer, who was added in free agency. But the 35-year-old played in only 49 games last season, so it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and productive in Queens.
Lucas Duda enjoyed a breakout year in 2014 with 30 homers and 136 wRC+. But David Wright wasn't his usual self last season, so a rebound in 2015 is crucial for the Mets' success. Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy must also improve in order for the club to push for a postseason berth.
The Mets will pitch well, but without a competent offense to support it, the club will find itself on the outside looking in once again.
St. Louis Cardinals: Can the Youngsters Round out the Rotation?
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The St. Louis Cardinals have become mainstays in the MLB postseason in recent memory, including another run to the NLCS in 2014.
The strength of the Redbirds was on the mound, as the starting rotation ranked sixth in baseball with a 3.44 ERA. Adam Wainwright continued his fantastic career with a 20-9 record and a 2.38 ERA. Lance Lynn provided the Cardinals with a reliable No. 2 starter, posting a 2.74 ERA and fanning eight per nine in over 200 innings.
John Lackey and Michael Wacha will also be in the rotation. Lackey has turned around his career after a horrendous 2011 with the Red Sox, while Wacha is hoping for a healthy 2015.
After those four, the Cardinals are blessed with a handful of hurlers capable of winning the fifth spot. Of those, Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales have the best chance to crack the rotation.
Martinez is a right-hander who broke into the big leagues as a flame-throwing reliever. The 23-year-old often reaches the upper 90s with his heater but has had trouble allowing walks in his brief career. Gonzales made his debut with the Cardinals this season, fanning over eight per nine but walking over five per nine. He's a soft-tossing lefty, which could help him carve out a niche in the rotation.
The Cardinals have exceptional depth in their starting pitching. But for the club to keep up with the Nationals in the National League, the development and production of St. Louis' young hurlers will be crucial in 2015.
Pittsburgh Pirates: How Reliable Will the Rotation Be?
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The Pittsburgh Pirates fell in the NL Wild Card game last season, but the Buccos qualified for the postseason for the second season in a row in 2014.
Andrew McCutchen led a potent offense, but it was the Pirates' rotation that was the surprise last year. That starting staff ranked 10th in all of baseball in ERA.
Pittsburgh did lose its inning-eater in Edinson Volquez, as he was the only Pirates' starter to throw over 190 innings. But both Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano will return after solid campaigns in 2014.
However, the rest of the rotation will consist of unpredictable hurlers.
That includes A.J. Burnett, who will return to the Pirates on a one-year deal. The right-hander was fantastic in Pittsburgh in 2012 and 2013, but he struggled with the Philadelphia Phillies last year. Burnett went 18-8 with a 4.59 ERA. The 38-year-old walked over four hitters per nine innings, which only magnified his problems.
Charlie Morton has turned into a decent back-of-the-rotation option for the Pirates, but he'll be asked to take on a bigger role this season. Vance Worley was able to rebound from his 7.21 ERA in 2013, but that mark should still give Pittsburgh some reservations. Jeff Locke and his career-4.00 ERA is another option for the Buccos.
Those hurlers managed to do the job last season, so it wouldn't surprise for them to do it again. But with an aging Burnett and question marks surrounding the other rotation candidates, the Pirates could see a dip in their starting pitching this season.
Chicago Cubs: Is the Young Talent Ready for Prominent Roles in 2015?
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There are so many reasons for Cubs' fans to be excited for the future, but Chicago should still find itself in the playoff hunt in 2015. If the Cubbies are to make that happen, their young talent will need to grow up fast and learn on the spot.
If you count the impending arrival of super-prospect Kris Bryant, the Cubs should have five position players under the age of 25 this season. While Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo have extended experience at the major league level, Bryant, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler will be asked to tackle prominent roles with very little experience.
Soler is pegged to start in right field at the beginning of the season, after an impressive showing to close the 2014 season. The 22-year-old hit .292 with five homers in just 24 games, while his 146 wRC+ also indicates his tremendous talent. But he's still young and has only played American baseball since 2012.
Baez hit nine homers in 52 games for the Cubs last season, but he struck out an unbelievable 42.5 percent of the time. His .169 average and .227 OBP prove that the 22-year-old middle infielder still needs to refine his approach at the dish.
And while Bryant looks like a can't-miss prospect, he's yet to play an inning in the big leagues. These players should enjoy long and successful careers, but the Cubs will need them to hit the ground running to reach the playoffs this year.
L.A. Dodgers: Will the Bullpen Be Able to Overcome the Loss of Kenley Jansen?
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The ineptitude of the Dodgers bullpen was indirectly responsible for the club's early exit in the 2014 NLDS. Manager Don Mattingly had very little confidence in his late-inning options, choosing to stick with Clayton Kershaw on three days' rest in a tight game.
It's hard to blame Mattingly, as that bullpen unit was one of the worst in baseball. The Dodgers' pen ranked 22nd in ERA and 26th in WAR in 2014.
The lone reliable piece in the bullpen was Kenley Janssen, who fanned almost 14 hitters per nine en route to 44 saves. The right-hander posted a 2.74 ERA, but his 1.91 FIP indicates he was even more dominant than originally perceived.
The Dodgers failed to address their fatal flaw, and now Janssen is scheduled to miss eight to 12 weeks with a foot injury. While the rest of the club looks great on paper, the Los Angeles bullpen has turned into a huge black eye on the roster.
Brandon League, J.P. Howell, Chris Hatcher and Paco Rodriguez have all enjoyed some success in their careers in late-inning roles, but every piece of the Dodgers bullpen must pick up the slack in order for the Dodgers to once again top a rapidly improving NL West.
San Francisco Giants: Can the Rest of the Staff Keep Up with Madison Bumgarner?
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The San Francisco Giants rode a historic Madison Bumgarner performance to another World Series championship in 2014. But for the Giants to return to the playoffs and ultimately another World Series, they will need the rest of the rotation to keep up.
Matt Cain's return should help with that effort, as the right-hander is set to return from an injury that cut his season short after just 15 starts. Cain has been a model of consistency for San Francisco throughout his career, but after a subpar 2013 and an injury-riddled 2014, the 30-year-old enters the season with something to prove.
Tim Hudson has injury concerns of his own and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to an ankle ailment. The right-hander was productive in his first season in San Fran, but at 39, Hudson's body is beginning to break down on him.
Jake Peavy is another quality veteran arm, but as his velocity has decreased so has is production. Tim Lincecum has become a shell of his former self, Yusmeiro Petit has logged over 100 innings just once in his career and Ryan Vogelsong was only recently re-signed in response to the Hudson and Cain injuries.
If all those arms can stay healthy, then the Giants will have one of the deeper rotations in baseball. But that uncertainty clouds the otherwise sunny outlook of the defending champs.
San Diego Padres: Will the Revamped Offense Strikeout Too Much?
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General manager A.J. Preller has rebuilt the San Diego Padres into serious contenders with the additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and James Shields this winter.
The bugaboo of the 2014 Padres was the club's inability to score enough runs to support a productive pitching staff. San Diego ranked dead-last in runs, average, OBP and wRC+ last season.
The additions of Kemp, Upton and Myers should help, but San Diego's projected lineup is quite prone to the strikeout. Here is that lineup and their career strikeout rates:
- Yangervis Solarte - 10.8 percent
- Wil Myers - 24.7 percent
- Matt Kemp - 23.7 percent
- Justin Upton - 23.8 percent
- Yonder Alonso - 15.3 percent
- Jedd Gyorko - 23 percent
- Derek Norris - 22.7 percent
- Alexi Amarista - 14.4 percent
It's one thing for the middle of the order to fan on occasion, but five of the nine starters striking out over 20 percent of the time is quite alarming.
With the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, the Padres will likely need to play fundamental offensive baseball to win games this year. While the lineup can't be worse than it was a year ago, the gaudy strikeout totals could halt San Diego's progression into the postseason.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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