Why an Andre Ethier-for-Ubaldo Jimenez Swap Makes Sense for Everyone Involved

There's a deal to be made between the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers that sends Andre Ethier to the reigning champs in the AL East, but, as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe points out, the more than $50 million that remains on the outfielder's contract complicates things.

Ethier plans on being a starter in 2015—whether it be for the Dodgers or another team—as he told the Los Angeles Times' Steve Dilbeck this past December. Even after trading Matt Kemp to San Diego, Ethier sits behind Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson on Los Angeles' depth chart.

He could start in Baltimore, where he'd be an immediate upgrade over Travis Snider, currently penciled in as the starter in right field. While his numbers last year were mediocre (.249 BA, .691 OPS), one of his former coaches tells Cafardo that's due to a lack of playing time:

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He’s a guy who has to play a lot to get into a rhythm. If he doesn’t, like last season, he’s not going to produce. The more he hits against lefties, the more comfortable he gets against them. He needs to be an everyday player.

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There's more than a little truth to that. Take a look at Ethier's numbers when he was a fixture in the starting lineup, logging more than 500 at-bats a season.

Stat	Ethier's Numbers	Rank Among OF
BA	.286	T-13th
OBP	.361	Ninth
SLG	.469	T-17th
OPS	.830	T-12th
XBH	388	T-11th
wRC+	124	T-18th

To be sure, that was a younger, faster, stronger version of Ethier than the player he is today—but entering his age-33 season and with no major injuries on his resume, there's no reason to believe that he couldn't still be productive with regular playing time.

As for Ubaldo Jimenez, who sits on the outside of Baltimore's rotation looking in at the moment, he'd provide insurance for the Dodgers at the back end of the rotation—neither Brett Anderson nor Brandon McCarthy are what you'd call durable.

But adding Jimenez would accomplish more than that.

Currently, the Dodgers have Juan Nicasio in line to be the team's long reliever/sixth starter, and they could keep him there, opting instead to add one of the free-agent relievers still sitting on the open market—a list that includes Joba Chamberlain, Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano.

But by slotting Jimenez in that role instead, it would free up Nicasio to serve in middle relief, where he's proven to be more effective, albeit over a small sample size:

Split	ERA	WHIP	IP	BB/9	K/0
As Starter	5.12	1.48	360.1	3.3	6.9
As Reliever	3.48	1.07	20.2	2.2	7.4

That jump in performance wasn't lost on ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon or Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi:

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After the All-Star break last year, he pitched exclusively in relief and had a 3.48 ERA in 19 games. According to Fangraphs, Nicasio's average fastball was 92.7 mph last season, but it ticked up to 95 mph when he pitched in relief.

"His stuff and performance played up in that role," Zaidi said.

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Financially, both players are due significant money through 2017—$38.75 million for Jimenez, $56 million for Ethier (including a $2.5 million buyout of his $17.5 million team option for 2018).

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Baltimore isn't going to take on an additional $17.25 million in current and future payroll, even if it would help the club defend its division crown. But if the Dodgers were to include, say, $10 million in the deal, it would help to offset that additional cost. 

In that scenario, the Orioles would only be adding an additional $7.25 million—spread across three years—to their current payroll. That's far more doable, even as the team awaits a resolution to its television rights dispute with MLB and the Washington Nationals.

Of course, the Dodgers aren't in the habit of just handing out wads of cash, and they're going to want something of value for including that money in a deal. Enter the always-popular player-to-be-named-later, to be chosen from an agreed-upon list of five mid-level prospects at a later date.

So the final deal would look something like this:

Dodgers Get: RHP Ubaldo Jimenez and a PTBNL

Orioles Get: OF Andre Ethier and $10 million

Los Angeles strengthens its pitching staff, removes a potential malcontent from the clubhouse and saves a few million dollars in the long run, while Baltimore adds a veteran outfielder capable of helping to replace the production lost when Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz departed as free agents at a minimal cost.

Would it be a gamble on the part of both teams? Absolutely—Ethier and Jimenez could continue to struggle. But they could also be rejuvenated by a change in scenery, which would find both teams walking away from this deal feeling good about their return.

It's what makes this a gamble worth taking.

Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.