Will Starting Pitcher Trade Market Intensify Now That FAs Are Dried Up?

Teams in need of starting pitching spent most of the winter waiting for the other Shields to drop. Now that Big Game James has finally found a home in sunny San Diego, plucking the final marquee free-agent name off the board, will the trade floodgates open?

Maybe, maybe not.

Yes, there is ace-level talent to be had in theory, but with spring training less than a week away, the likelihood of a blockbuster deal is low. Here's how it'll probably go: Teams with tradable arms will bide their time until the July deadline, when contenders in need of pitching are more desperate and more apt to part with prime assets.

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Yet this offseason has been full of surprises, including several trades that shifted the baseball landscape and upended the balance of power. Is one more seismic swap in the offing?

Let's run through three clubs that could use a boost in the rotation (an illustrative but not exhaustive list), speculate about who they might target and parse the probability that a deal will go down before Opening Day.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox remade their rotation this winter, acquiring sinkerballer Rick Porcello from the Detroit Tigers and southpaw Wade Miley from the Arizona Diamondbacks and inking Justin Masterson to a one-year, show-me contract.

None of those names jump out as a bona fide ace (unless you squint and count Porcello). So it's no surprise that Boston, which followed up a World Series win in 2013 with a last-place finish in 2014, has been at the center of the pitching rumor mill.

According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox remain in pursuit of left-hander Cole Hamels and recently offered the Philadelphia Phillies a package that was "heavy on the major league side, trying to avoid giving up any of their top prospects."

That figures to be a tough sell and possibly a nonstarter. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is said to be seeking at least one blue chip as Philadelphia lurches forward with its painful, protracted rebuild.

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The Hamles chatter proves Boston remains on the lookout for another arm, but don't expect GM Ben Cherington to cave and surrender a player like No. 1 prospect Blake Swihart right away.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald thinks the Sox would be better off pursuing Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals. Zimmermann, Silverman opines, "is almost as good as Hamels, is two years younger and...would require a far cheaper price in return talent."

Then again, as Silverman adds, Zimmermann, like the rest of the Nats' stable of studs, isn't exactly available yet, as Washington appears to be in full-blown win-now mode.

To dampen the trade talk even more, here's what Cherington told MLB.com's Ian Browne on Jan. 22: "All I can say right now is as far as the starters are concerned, we're really focused on the guys we have. We're pursuing some opportunities maybe on some depth in certain areas, but there's nothing on the front burner that would grab headlines."

Still, if the Red Sox rotation is floundering come summer, look for trade noise in Beantown. 

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards rotation, which has helped carry them to four straight National League Championship Series and one World Series win since 2011, is by no means a weakness. In fact, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter recently ranked the St. Louis starting five the fifth-best rotation in baseball. 

There are legitimate question marks, though. 

Ace Adam Wainwright, who simply didn't look like himself down the stretch and in the postseason in 2014, is recovering from offseason elbow surgery. Shelby Miller was shipped to Atlanta in the Jason Heyward trade. The back end is uncertain, held down by fading veteran John Lackey and inconsistent youngster Carlos Martinez.

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Might the Cardinals dip into their loaded farm system and add another gun to the arsenal?

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes the Cards "have had interest" in Hamels and that "the minor league system still has talent to offer, and [GM John] Mozeliak asserted the team has 'payroll muscle.'"

The question now: Will the Cardinals flex it?

Chicago Cubs

Chicago sank a lot of money into starting pitchers this winter, committing some $175 million to ace left-hander Jon Lester and right-hander Jason Hammel.

But the suddenly relevant Cubs aren't necessarily done, as evidenced by the "strong run" they made at Shields, according to CBSChicago.com's Bruce Levine.

Chicago certainly has enough young trade bait to nab Hamels and/or one of the Nats' starters should they become available. As with every team mentioned here, the Cubbies will probably play the wait-and-see game.

Then again, as Levine notes:

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The aggressive style of Cubs executives Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer point out two obvious traits going forward. The Cubs will continue to go after the best pitching talent in baseball. More importantly, to support that idea, money from ownership won’t be an issue when quality players are made available.

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Aggressive enough to inject the offseason with a final dramatic twist? Stay tuned.